So U.K. is now stopping testing people unless hospitalised.

[VivaLeBeaver]

So surely our figures will drop? Boris will be able to say he’s made the right course of action and be smug?

Nobody will have a clue about the real picture which means we are less likely to move to the banning mass events/closing schools stage which Means it will just spread even more?

Am I missing something?

I could understand stopping testing the less serious if hospitals were overwhelmed but didn’t think we were at that stage yet?

How do we monitor the situation? I feel likely we will be totally blind and be wholly reliant on the Government to make announcements on what we do and when

The official figures give no indication to the true numbers. If you want an idea of the true numbers, look at the death rate. Death rate = 1-3% of true cases roughly.

Death rates are about a week behind though so needs to be factored in. People get seriously ill late on during the infection

Overall figures will drop but death rate will significantly increase (obviously more likely that those hospitalised will die than those untested and staying at home), so I don’t think it will make the numbers look better.
The numbers are fairly meaningless anyway. As Sir Patrick Vallance said last night, it’s likely we have between 5000 and 10000 people currently infected in the UK. I’d say that’s a conservative estimate. We already have no idea of the real picture.

I listened to the chief medical and science officers giving their speeches yesterday. Yes they are only going to test those so ill they require hospital treatment, I believe this is to ensure proper infection methods are put in place on the hospital (and to correctly track deaths I imagine).

During the speeches they confirmed that the current confirmed cases are not actually the number of people infected in the UK right now. They are modelling to get an estimate of the true number infected, which they estimate as currently between 5-10k.

They will be continue to model and use these estimates of the number of infected to decide which measures to put in place and when, not the confirmed tested cases.

They aren’t asking those with the symptoms to notify so there is no way of tracking anything apart from death rates. I understand asking people not to call 111 unless they need assistance, in order to reduce the burden on that service but people should have to notify in order that Boris and his team of yes-men can at least ostensibly keep on top of the “science”.

Also in terms of the economic impact don’t they need to know the numbers of people self isolating at any one time? And how that changes over time? I would have thought this was key info. But they will in fact only have info on those tapping into benefit support/SSP and I am not sure HMRC’s systems are sophisticated enough to usefully track that info for this purpose anyway...

I think we have limited testing capability and so we are focusing it. We will then use modelling to determine from change in hospital admissions where the virus is / how far it is spread. Given limited resources it seems an not unreasonable strategy. There will be a lag of course as it takes time for people to get seriously ill this is why government have asked people with even mild symptoms to self isolate. There is still an issue I believe you are infectious before symptoms but unless they can test everyone (we cant) you cant avoid that issue. That is where social distancing will I assume play a part at some point.

But, we know the true number is more than the official number anyway and we can assume our numbers match Italy roughly. I don't know what the point would be in just continuing to confirm that day by day. These things follow the same pattern.

I don't agree that we are 4 weeks behind Italy though, more like 2/2.5

I feel like this will help complacency spread. I worry that people will go about their business, and not isolate when they really should be. As they will rationalise that because cases are so low, due to lack of testing that they must have a cold and it can't possibly be coronavirus.

Boris is listening to the experts. Now is not the time to lockdown people because if you do it now a lot of people will be meh and it won’t work. Just look at another thread on here about someone who is sick with some virus who wants to go back to work.

There will be a tipping point that they are looking for and it’s not yet.

I’ve been impressed with how the U.K. have planned and modelled this. It may not feel like it to some but things need to be done at the right time for everyone to follow the advice. I know some people in my local area would not hold to social distancing yet, they all think it’s a laugh and post memes about toilet rolls.

It’s scary. They’ve shifted the focus of testing which means we’re getting closer to that peak. I’m scared but I am confident our government are doing the best they can (and no I’m not a Tory - stuff politics at the moment)

Yes, good points about focusing on the mortality rate and then being able to estimate the infection rate from there.

It’s just all so unbelievable.

We have found around 500 cases from over 27,000 tests so far.

I really don't think that restricting the number of sets to the most serious cases is going to make a bif difference to the numbers.

If we don't test we cannot know the mortality rate. You cannot assume they infection rate. They DO have the resource to do wider testing. This is a wilful and knowing move to not characterise the disease and it's spread and it's appalling.

I agree with @Tigertu

*Tigerty

@Tigerty I'm with you. I think lots of other governments have gone 'knee jerk'. Watching the post COBRA press conference yesterday on TV, everything said made sense.

I just wonder whether there will be a pause in panic-buying or whether it will now escalate, given that we know that the pandemic is ramping up and that in a month things will start the long, flattened peak?

Do we have testing capacity though @Tigerty? Do you have some evidence on this. I thought we were constrained by availability of labs. I think some new test is being developed but dont think it is live yet.

@NewModel
Knee jerk is accepting 100,000 plus deaths as collateral and turning our NHS into utter chaos. Start containing/delaying seriously like China has done VERY SUCCESSFULLY and most other countries are attempting. So much for fucking human rights. A bit of inconvenience and hit to the economy and all flies out the window.

Sorry @Tigerty that should have been @ChristmasFlint do we have capacity for more than 1500 tests per day? Do you have evidence for that claim?

Yes I was thinking the same OP

Very cynical...

I have to say that when Premier League football managers, internationally known actors and wives of world leaders start to test positive, I think the cat is well and truly out of the bag...

Both Chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty & Chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance were calm and convincing.

However, I understand why they were saying that only those on hospitals to be tested. Because they need to be prioritised, and our systems won't be able to cope if we aren't careful.

But I didn't like that idea. Because then there's no log of how many people have actually had it!

I am actually very unhappy about this!

Sorry @Cam77 I do not want to live in that country you describe. Human rights really do matter. My individual safety matters less than the rights of all citizens to live freely. We need people to agree to isolate and follow the rules.

I do think that the government is wrong to not ban large gatherings but in terms of school closures etc, we need to do this at the peak when people will willingly comply. Or you'll end up with riots - and more deaths.

The guidance is that if you have symptoms assume you have it. There’s no need to test. No value comes to the health system from this activity any more. Their priority is at risk groups and people with Acute or critical illness (CV related or not).

It makes sense to prioritise testing to high risk groups. The over 60 and those with underlying health problems. These are the people who need to be screened via 111 and tested. They should be actively monitored and supported. This is what will happen.

We should now assume there is prevalence in the community and we at risk of exposure. We should follow hygiene rules and when symptomatic self isolate. Contacting 111 if we are at risk or become seriously unwell. The otherwise healthy, most of us, can self manage colds and flu, flu like illnesses and mild cases of cv. Our responsibility is to not to pass it on and not to use scarce NHS resources irresponsibly. Stay home and get better.

The only comfort is them saying 85% have it so mild they barely notice, they’re not going to be able to give those figures now. All we’re going to know is how many people are hospitalised and have died. Scary times. My dc very anxious