The problem with this statement is also:
What could the UK do to stop it?
I am reading a (very) long twitter thread from one of the accounts I've followed longest. The guy is very well rounded in what he says on geopolitics.
I'll try and link to the whole thread cos it's worth a read in a bit but here's a few key points:
Iyad el-Baghdadi AT el-baghdadi
It was also under Netanyahu that Israel expanded its disinfo capacities and leaned hard into relying upon cyber capabilities and high-tech occupation. Also a reminder, Netanyahu is one of the first pioneers of the "war on terror" paradigm,
So after Oct 7 Bibi had one of two options - (1) resign & admit that this is the result of a series of failures most of which lead back to him; or (2) go all out and try to accomplish a "victory" his allies always wanted but couldn't do. Ethnically cleanse 2 million Palestinians.
So my analysis is that Israel's response so far reflects primarily not Israel's security imperatives but Netanyahu's political calculations. His first statement was "We're going to change the Middle East", which if you follow Netanyahu you know is a very Netanyahu thing to say.
Netanyahu even seems willing to sacrifice the hostages for that. He's not even meeting with hostage families, and pro-Netanyahu mobs are calling hostage families "traitors" for calling for a cease fire to allow for hostage negotiations before a ground invasion
I understand when people ask "What else could he have done in response to such a brazen attack". AT AmiDar and others have written good posts about this. But while such a response would have been good for Israel it would have been bad for Bibi's career
Ami Dar AT AmiDar
Some people have asked, "What would you do if you were in Netanyahu's place?" After thinking about this, here's what I would have done last week: Nothing. Nothing at all. Not one bullet—at least not for a while. I would have said, "We will secure our borders immediately. We will bury and grieve for our dead. We will sit shiva together. And we will THINK before acting. I promise you this won't happen again. But we will do this methodically, surgically, politically, economically. With most of the world behind us, and while keeping an eye on the future we want to build here. I understand the desire for action now. But we have to be strong AND smart. And Hamas is in Gaza. They can't leave. They, and we, can wait a bit. We will win. But we will do this right."
This would have been hard-to-impossible to pull off politically, but that's what leaders are for.
Iyad el-Baghdadi AT el-baghdadi
(Btw, Israel will come out of this a much more polarized and right-wing country. You'd expect people to rally to their leader and to unite vs a common threat after such horrors, but Bibi is placing his political career above everyone's security in Israel & regionally/globally)
And so the Israeli (Netanyahu & co) response to a humiliating failure is to "achieve the impossible" and ethnically cleanse Gaza. I'll come back to the actual Gaza op and the stated objective of "destroying Hamas". But now let's look at Egypt in all of this.
The thread continues with other areas of geopolitics.
He then continues:
Back to Gaza. Some have blind faith that the IDF will absolutely win and eliminate Hamas. I don't share that view. Bibi painted himself into a corner with "destroy Hamas" as objective. He clearly doesn't have a well thought out plan.
To really "destroy Hamas", he'll have to wage a bloody, prolonged urban war to dislodge a well trained, highly motivated, well supplied army that has spent over a decade digging in and preparing for such a day. The IDF has never fought such a battle.
He'll have to take all of Gaza and hold it, and either push out its inhabitants or fight among them. A partial invasion will only relocate Hamas. An occupation will make IDF a target for a prolonged and bloody attrition war.
The deeper he gets into Gaza, the higher the risk of a second front opening to his north, plus multiple fronts vs the US, and a regional conflagration erupting. The regional escalatory potential will be almost infinite.
Also the deeper he gets into Gaza and the more desperate the situation gets for civilians there, the more likely it is that even his long-term partners Egypt and Jordan will turn on him, despite their hatred of Hamas, because they can't afford not to
And even if he actually wins, all he'd have done is relocated Palestinian militancy from a besieged and blockaded Gaza to a slightly further but much deeper (and suddenly much less stable) Egypt
Right now in Israel a major shitstorm has erupted between Bibi and IDF. He wants them to take the blame for Oct 7. IDF also suspicious of the military aims he's setup and think some are unrealistic. Meanwhile the hostage families who want to see negotiations are being ignored.
The most likely outcome is he'll go in as far as he can but as the risks rise for everyone he'll have to stop, declare victory and pull out.
The report card will be:
- Israel isn't safer
- Relations with long-term partners (Egypt & Jordan) damaged
Report card cont:
- Impossible for Saudi to normalize for a while
- Real damage to US standing in the region
- Hamas can claim victory because it wasn't destroyed
In the words of Noam: Many Israelis & their future and security are also captives of Netanyahu. De-escalation is in everyone's benefit. Except Netanyahu.
The UK in abstaining is piling pressure on Netanyahu BUT it can't abandon our line on defending against terrorism and the concept of 'the war on terror' because so much of our foreign and domestic policy is entwined with the concept.
BUT it's not insignificant nor is it supporting Israel at all.
Do not think this is the UK being toothless. This IS significant. It IS breaking with the US.