OP I was exactly like you and loved the idea of a nice water birth but very afraid of the complications to mother and baby if things went tits up with vaginal birth.
I was very much considering a straight ELCS, but researched a lot and found the ARRIVE study and Melbourne Uni research on elective inductions at 39 weeks in healthy first time mothers reducing risk of tearing by 37%, so I opted for an elective induction at 39 weeks after lots of reassurance from the hospital that at any point during the induction I could opt for a c section, which I did end up doing in the end.
However, I really enjoyed my induction experience and I am glad I got to experience contractions and gave vaginal birth a chance (baby’s position meant labour didn’t progress and I wasn’t keen to carry on past three days).
The consultant (NHS) was super supportive of my decision and DH and I were prepped and in theatre within the hour. The c section was wild and trippy and amazing too!
However c section recovery is no joke! You need someone or two someones to do everything for you for at least two weeks. Like making all meals, propping up pillows and getting you water and lip balm in bed while all you do is hold and try to feed baby (which is definitely harder when recovering from c section as it’s really sore to cradle baby when you have a healing abdomen wound).
Be really sure your DP is up to the task and if not, have your mum or someone else who is an absolute super star stay. You truly need so so much support.
Additionally, you have a large scar on your abdomen! It might be wonky or jagged. You might get an overhang! It HURTS!!
I just say this as I think I was so worried about tearing vaginally that I forgot about the practicalities and vanities related to a big incision on my abdomen - I cried when they took the bandages off! I think that might just have been the shock. I feel okay about it now and it’s healing nicely, but I feel like no one really talks about this aspect - maybe I’m just a horrid vain person though lol.
You may very well need osteopath scar massage to help with scar tissue and healing so it’s not like a c section means you escape needing postpartum rehab either.
Additionally, you can’t go on long walks or get back to exercise as fast as a straightforward vag birth - so the start of mat leave is potentially a bit more sedentary and possibly boring/depressing if you’re used to being quite active.
In your case, I would think about all the elements that make an uncomplicated vaginal birth more likely, like size of baby and position of baby, your own fitness and age etc and do a risk calculation based on your own factors.
Lots of the horror stories we hear may very well be related to women being very overdue, with big babies or mother’s existing health issues, rather than risks that will necessarily apply to you.
Just something to think about! And wishing you the very best of luck with whatever you decide :)