As a former year 1 teacher, I'm utterly disgusted that she has predicted he 'WILL NOT PASS' in early October. Of course he won't... because he's not expected to until the END OF THE YEAR (July time).
So basically, she's not going to invest any time in him to get him up to scratch before then. Barring any additional needs (you don't think you mentioned any), he will most likely be able to pass (additionally, he has the benefit of having a supportive home environment). I would have felt compelled to ask, doesn't this school practise 'Growth Mindset' then..
It is literally just practice... and I'm against standardised testing as much as the next person, but if he doesn't pass, he'll likely end up doing phonics when the rest of them do reading comp practice for Y2 SATS (and then he'll miss out on that, which will impact his result/Y3 work). But, if he didn't pass by then, he'd obviously need this extra phonics practise if he's struggling with it, which is more beneficial to him in the long run.
To be honest, I would use this as fire to absolutey bloody MAKE SURE he passed, just to show her not to do it again! Some teachers really should just give up!! OK rant over.
We would use September to asses where the kids are and put them in groups, depending on the sounds they're comfortable (maybe you know this - there's a particular order). Kids with fewer sounds, are usually in smaller groups. Then as they become more comfortable, they move to a different group/set of sounds - usually every half term or so.
Just to note for the actual test:
They can spell it out for as long as they want.
For example:
B-a-d, B-ad, Ba-d, Bad
And they have to take their final answer: Bad.
BUT, if they sound it out like this:
B-a-d, B-ad, Ba-d, Bad, Bab (with a 'b' last). It's wrong. Zero points.
*I last did the phonics check 6 years ago - so maybe some more up to date y1 teachers can confirm this is still the case?
**
I have some resources I can link to help you..
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7aa7b6e5274a34770e630c/Letters_and_Sounds_-_DFES-00281-2007.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwj_qpWKqJWQAxUZ2QIHHdBPDq4QFnoECCgQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3DRGncrQ3eYHxZPY-UIn2R
(Government overview)
https://www.phonicsplay.co.uk/resources
(Good practice gamified - I think there's a few for free on there still)
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/phonics-screening-check-sample-materials-and-training-video
(So you're clear how it's administered by the teachers)
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/national-curriculum-assessments-past-test-materials
(Wouldn't bother with these till after Feb half term, but just to know what the final test would be like on advance- online somewhere I used to be able find 'words' including particular sounds in the same format, to familiarise themselves with it-can't find it now though sorry!)
https://letters-and-sounds.com/
(Good for resources)
But MOST OF ALL... MAKE phonics SO FUN, that he's begging to practise it as soon as he gets in from school. Little and often, 10/20m a day. Practise in the car, on a walk, jumping, hopping from sound to sound, 'robotting' (arms up and down from elbows) the sounds quicker and until he says the whole word.. this is why I just LOVE PHONICS (can you tell?!?), because it's so so easy to get the kids excited about it. ACTIVE, FUN phonics is what we want!!
Ok. Such a long post (sorry everybody!), but hope it helps.