We now know, thanks to Guardian, what we didn’t know about the Hawdon Report, which was that she found that 13 of the cases had received “suboptimal care” and the “death/collapse is explained but may have been prevented with different care”
That statement alone is completely pointless unless explained how suboptimal care resulted in death or sudden collapse for each individual child. How optimal care would have made the whole difference.
The arguement that all were initially labelled as natural death can be deemed counter evidence for both position. If these death/crisis were due to suboptimal care, surely the autopsy would have identified the system/care failure that resulted in accidental death, not natural causes.
I think most people lose sight of what we have a judicial system in the first place. That is because however desperate humans are to seek the truth, in many cases, the truth can't ever be 100% determined, so we need an impartial jury to make a decision. This does not mean the outcome highlights the truth, just that it's as good, at the time, to what the truth can be.
It comes down to the existentialist question: at which point does circumstantial evidence is numerous enough to squash doubt.
I have found the most helpful document to be the appeal, with the summary of the first case.
I think Lucy is likely guilty and I can totally see how it would be possible from a psychological case perspective. I can even find similarities with my previous experience of desperately longing to be loved and jealous of those who were without any effort. Of course, I never got anywhere close to taking a step towards harming others as a cry for acknowledgement and attention (although many resort to self harm instead).
I also recognise that it is very possible that all those circumstantial evidence is just that, and even all put together, is just an accumulation of circumstances that do not equate to anything even when all put together.