Meet the Other Phone. Protection built in.

Meet the Other Phone.
Protection built in.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

to think that you need to stop what you're doing right now and read this article. And I mean need.

253 replies

granted · 08/02/2011 21:05

I posted this on the Politics section but it deserves a much wider audience:

www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/feb/07/tax-city-heist-of-century?commentpage=last#end-of-comments

Quite possibly the best newspaper article I've ever read.

OP posts:
georgeorwell · 10/02/2011 11:26

even though my politicisation took place in burma of course as a member of the army where i witnessed firsthand the iniquities of colonialism..thats where the eton/oxford rot was sloughed off my mind and proper thought formed

claig · 10/02/2011 11:29

I don't know as much about Orwell as you, but I know that he also discovered a lot of truths when he fought in the Spanish Civil War.

ItsGraceAgain · 10/02/2011 14:16

I agree that focusing on financial services to the detriment of other UK products is a mistake. (I did see why we had to print money, but it's only ever going to be a stopgap.) I also agree that 'green technology' is - if useful at all to UK Inc - a long-term direction, not a solution.

We still have a formidable skills base in R&D, science technology and medium-heavy manufacturing. I wish we'd invest and promote these more.

CinnabarRed: I realise it's probably asking too much, but would you be able to enlighten us on how current policies are supposed to help us regain our economic feet?

CinnabarRed · 10/02/2011 17:01

Sorry everyone - that meeting went on for way longer than I expected!

Hi ItsGraceAgain. I'll start with your question because it's the quicker one to answer.

I should start by saying that I don't agree with the government's current economic policy. My economic thinking tends to follow Keynes, who believed that the best way to stimulate economic recovery is to invest (by, in effect, maintaining or even increasing the flow of resources - in the widest sense - through the economy via wages and capital projects). The government can't force the private sector to spend, but it can invest in the public sector.

The counter theory, which does also have merit, runs that although investing in the public sector would clearly be a good thing, it's even more important to pay down the government's borrowing and reduce the deficit. There's a real fear - and it's not unfounded - that if the UK can't reduce its deficit by a substantial amount, and quickly, then international investors will lose faith in the UK economy, push the interest rate that the UK has to pay on its debt up to unsustainable levels, forcing the UK to default on its debt and precitipate a crisis like those of Greece and Ireland. There are only two mechanisms for a government reduce its deficit - get more money in by raising taxes or spend less by cutting public spending.

The truth is probably somewhere between the two. If I were the Chancellor I would increase NIC a bit more, reduce public spending a bit but nothing like as much as we currently have now, and pay down the deficit at a slower rate than the Chancellor is planning.

The reason I would focus on NIC is because it spreads the pain of increased taxes across individuals AND companies so that no one group is financially crippled, is (alongside income tax) one of the bigger contributors to the public purse (c.£150 billion per annum compared to corporation tax of c.£50 billion) and isn't in my view an unbearable burden on employment, as some try to argue. Increasing social security taxes doesn't tend reduce employment levels - you can see this by comparisons with equivalent taxes in other European jurisdictions (although it is quite hard to compare like with like because the UK has a different pension contribution/NIC interaction that other countries).

What I wouldn't bother doing is trying to increase taxes from the mega-wealthy. Unpalatable as I find the likes of Guy Hands (he really is a cock - google him if you want to see an example of someone who's lost sight of the value of anything other than money), these ultra rich individuals are too internationally mobile to pay tax in the UK if they don't want to. They'll bugger off to Monacco or Switzerland at the drop of a hat. I'd rather have them in the UK where at least their spending goes some way to stimulate the economy albeit indirectly.

Hope that thumbnail summary makes sense. Will be back later to talk tax!

ThisIsANiceCage · 10/02/2011 17:07

Many thanks for that! It's great to have someone on this thread with akshul knowledge.

ambarth · 10/02/2011 19:06

Thanks cinnabar. Please come back and enlighten us all further.

AgeingGrace · 10/02/2011 20:10

Brilliant, Cinnabar Wine
Thanks!

I was indoctrinated with Keynes at uni, which is why I find it hard to believe an economic clampdown will get us anywhere except 'closed for business'. I never seem to see macro economic theories mentioned any more (probably because I no longer read The Economist!) but am suprised our govt doesn't bother to explain itself in terms any more complex than household budget analogies. Anyway.

Completely take your point about the mega-rich and will stop whingeing about their tax privileges immediately. I'm EVER SO looking forward to Part II.

CinnabarRed for Chancellor!

BeenBeta · 10/02/2011 21:08

The problem with Keynsiansim is it is wildly misunderstood by those that say they are implementing it.

Keynes said Govt should borrow and spend when the private sector will not or cannot borrow and spend (eg in a severe recession) and then withdraw once the private sector picks up. Socialist Govts never stop spending though, they never step back.

The result is that Govt debt consantly and inevitably increases up until it reaches the 'Keynsian Endpoint' which is when capital markets refuse to lend anymore. Then austerity and debt default occurs.

The 'Keynsian Endpoint' is exactly like when a household overspends for too long and in the end cannot pay its debts and the bank refuses to raise the credit card and overdraft limit.

claig · 10/02/2011 21:14

exactly. What happens if people refuse to lend to the Keynesian? And don't interest rates have to be raised in order to attract lenders? Doesn't that kill any potential fragile recovery? If it was as easy as just borrowing, then surely Osborne would make himself popular by borrowing. Even Alastair Darling said they would have to implement cuts like we had never seen before.

Isn't Osborne responsible? Isn't he trying to rectify the previous regime's irresponsibility? Doesn't he know that there is no such thing as a free lunch, except at Labour Party headquarters?

CinnabarRed · 10/02/2011 22:17

Sorry I haven't come back - DP just got back from Serbia Smile but his plane was late. Will do the tax bit first thing tomorrow morning, promise.

BeenBeta and Claig - I entirely take on board your views. What we don't know is how close we as an economy are to the Keynesian Endpoint (and of course in real life the vast majority of soverign governments never get there so clearly there are some natural checks and balances in place).

We'll never know which of us is "right" because balancing the economy is a one-shot deal. I'm certainly not going to get into a pissing contest with two such logical thinkers.

I never mind anyone disagreeing with me, provided their views are logical and consistent!

BaggedandTagged · 11/02/2011 01:02

I have to say that I definitely don't envy the government at the moment in terms of economic policy. I feel that many people are expecting that the 97-07 boom can be recreated given time and the right policies whereas personally I think that this was probably a one-time windfall. Unfortunately during that time we all took our eye off the ball- we have been the ultimate grasshoppers vs ants and have increasingly relied on the service sector which was floating on a wave of borrowed money.

Despite the recent "ishoos" we are good at financial services and I think London will continue to be a hub. However, we also need to make something which we can export and that's the big problem. We have a relatively well educated workforce, albeit not enough people with degrees in engineering, science, maths etc and not enough skilled technical people- the degree bias is towards service sector jobs. We don't have natural resources so whatever we do make has to be a high value add product, which, critically, is hard to copy or has intrinsic brand value (eg Rolex- you can make a fake Rolex but people still want to buy the real ones).

At the same time, the service sector on which we are relying has undergone a transformation from one populated by small businesses which supported a lower middle class, to one which mainly supplies minimum wage labour (growth of supermarkets probably best example), so you have a wealth gap opening up.

Maybe I'm pessimistic but I really don't see how the UK can continue to prosper. Answers on a postcard please.

AgeingGrace · 11/02/2011 02:20

Dear B&T,

Flight was a bumpy but we made it in one piece, lol! Weather not that great but food's OK, lol. Lots of poverty here, wasn't expecting that, bit upsetting. Scenery fantastic and who cares anyway? No work to do, hurray! Off for another snooze, wish you were here??

Love Grace x

mathanxiety · 11/02/2011 03:34

Anyone who voted Tory in the belief that Labour policies had anything to do with the financial crisis is an idiot ignorant of global trends and whose head is firmly stuck in the sands of long, long ago. The UK is a small player in the global game. Nothing much that any UK government does or doesn't do will have any effect outside of Britain. There can be no stemming of any international tide. As the US goes, so does Britain. (And fwiw the US has chosen to spend its way out of the current crisis, a fairly Keynesian approach, and many US voices have expressed alarm at what the Irish government has been forced to do wrt debt reduction. Debt reduction must be accompanied by growth or it ends up killing an economy.)

The trouble with the no more loans scenario is that it will never happen. The UK may not be a global mover and shaker any more, but it is enough of a player that, like some banks, it is too big to fail. Heck, Greece was too big to fail (though Greece is in the Eurozone). Iceland let the chips fall where they might, and hasn't disappeared off the face of the earth. Banks in the end will look after themselves, and if their exposure in Britain is significant enough, Britain will not fail. Banks are in the position of having mounted a tiger.

AlpinePony · 11/02/2011 05:30

YABU:-

i) for thinking that people on mumsnet don't already have a handle on politics/finances and have actually done so for many years.
ii) for thinking that the Guardian is unbiased
iii) for wielding your political axe on AIBU
iv) for not being able to bring fox-hunting in to your OP

AlpinePony · 11/02/2011 05:33

But... back to the original point. I live and work in The Netherlands - it has an extremely low corporate tax rate and has been used as a tax haven for multinationals for many, many years. As a (partial) result, jobs are secure here, worker's rights are very protected and we have just about the lowest unemployment rate in the whole of Europe - 4.1% last time I checked.

Worker's rights = if my employer wants to bin me they've got to pay me nearly a year's salary and I'll get "dole" at 70% of my wage for 2 years on top of that. Beats the shite out of "pack yer bag, security will escort you to the front door and that'll be 65 quid a week at the dole office".

CinnabarRed · 11/02/2011 11:09

Aaaggghhh - I just spent an hour typing tax analysis for you and lost the lot when the battery died on my laptop Sad. Here we go again....

This is going to be long. Sorry. I'm going to start from the presumption that you, gentle readers, are intelligent but not familiar with international tax concepts, so will go back to absolute basics. Apologies if that sounds patronising, it's not intended to.

Suppose a company has a successful product, but its core market is already at capacity. It has two choices about what to do next. It can invent new products to sell to its core customers (e.g. Apple inventing the ipod, iphone and ipad). Or it can find new customers for its existing product. Some companies start to market the existing product to a different segment of the market (e.g. Johnson's selling baby products for adult use); others expand overseas.

It's more risky for companies to expand overseas than stay in the same country. The foreign market isn't familiar to them, and a procuct that sells brilliantly here might tank elsewhere (remember M&S's disasterous foray into France and Germany?). So companies need an extra incentive to open foreign markets.

I'll come back to how the tax system can provide that incentive in a minute. Just for now I need to run you though the two structures that companies can use to do business abroad.

The first is to incorporate a subsidiary company overseas. There are several business advantages to this - some locals prefer to trade with a local company; it's easy for the UK parent company to see how much it's investing in its overseas subsidiary company and how much profit it's making; employment law is easy). However, there are several disadvantages too, around increased admin costs (filing fees, audit costs, local regulatory requirements, etc).

The alternative is to open a branch. A branch is just a business place owned by a UK company in a foreign country. It's exactly the same as Waitrose opening a new store in Amersham when it already had one in Chesham (guess where I live!) except that the new store is in a different country. It's quick, easy and cheap to open a branch.

So let's go back to how the tax system can incentivise overseas investment.

Under the current system, the UK will generally not tax an overseas subsidiary. Which is good news if the subsidiary is profitable, but a bit of a bugger if it's make losses (which you would expect in the early years due to start up costs). By comparison, a branch's results are taxed directly on the UK company. If it makes losses then the losses are automatically offset against the UK company's other profits. If it makes profits then it will be taxed on them in the UK.

So what companies generally do when they start to trade overseas is start off with a branch (for as long as the overseas business is making losses, because it can use the losses against its UK profits) and then move the overseas business into a subsidary company once is starts to make profits (because the UK company won't be taxed on the subsidiary's profits until such time as they're brought back to the UK, generally as dividends).

This is all very well established and familiar. Only the most hardened of tax activists view it as abusive - the Revenue certainly doesn't. The Revenue accepts that it's a good model for encouraging UK companies to expand, which is good for the UK economy as a whole.

The problem comes because some sectors use branch structures for non-tax reasons. Banks are one, and by far the largest. By banks, BTW, I don't mean investment banks - I mean the retails banks that we all have accounts with.

Let's take a moment to think about how retail banks make their money. Very broadly, they take in deposits from the likes of us and invest them elsewhere. Some they lend out as mortgages and loans (charging more in interest to the borrowers than we receive on our deposit accounts); some they speculate on the stock markets because they hope to get higher returns; and some they put aside for a rainy day (although not nearly enough, as we now know....)

In any case, they need to move very large sums of money many, many times per day. It's much easier to move money between a branch and its head office than between a subsidiary and a parent company. So banks generally have branches overseas taking in deposits, and a UK head office.

(If you like to think it analogies, think of this: if you go out on the town and don't want to take a handbag with you, then you need to have somewhere else to put your cash. You could put it in your pocket or give it to a kind friend who does have a handbag. If you want to buy a drink, it's much quicker if you can just reach into your pocket to pay. If your mate has it then you have to find her - and she's bound to be either sobbing in the loos or snogging some random bloke (or possibly that's just my mates!) - then get her attention, then wait while she roots around in her purse, etc etc.)

Banks have long complained that they have no choice but to operate using overseas branches, but doing so puts them at a disadvantage against both other UK companies (who can use subsidiaries if they want to) and foreign banks (many of whom operate in countries which don't tax branches in the same way that the UK does - more on that later).

We could, of course, tell the banks to poke it. Personally, I don't think that's a smart thing to do. I calculate (based on figures from the Office of National Statistics) than banks hand over around £50 billion of tax to the Exchequer each year. To put that into context, the whole annual tax take is £450 billion, so £1 in every £9 of tax collected comes from banks. We really do need them to be here and to be doing well.

The alternative is that some banks are seriously considering moving their headquarters out of the UK.

So the solution that's being proposed is to level the playing field between branches and subsidiaries. In other words, that branch profits shouldn't be taxed in the UK, but neither should branch losses be relieved (which would mean that it would no longer matter whether overseas profits were earned in a subsidiary or a branch, because the UK tax implications would be the same). It's called a branch exemption system.

Turning to Monbiot's article:

  • these are currently only proposals. The consultation period closes today. It is genuinely the case that the Treasury will weigh up all of the responses received and may well change its policy as a result. To present it as a foregone conclusion is disingenous.
  • It's factually incorrect to say that the UK is only the second country (behind Switzerland) to implement a branch exemption. Many, many other jurisdictions do.
  • And it's nothing to do with tax havens either. Retail banks don't have deposits in tax havens because there aren't enough customers to take deposits from! The notable exceptions are the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man, but there's already specific legislation to deal with them.
  • It's misleading to say that businesses will be able to offset the costs of funding their overseas branches against UK profits. It implies that profits will be exempt but losses will still be relieved. That's not the case. What he means is that if a UK company borrows to expand overseas then it will be allowed a tax deduction for that borrowing irrespective of whether its overseas business is structured as a branch or a subsidiary. That's a critical point that's necessary to level the playing field between the two.
  • the proposals are not designed to drain wealth and jobs from the UK. Quite the contrary. They're designed to keep wealth and jobs in the UK by encouraging the banks to stay here. Remember that £50 billion of tax they pay?
  • any business which does try to funnel its earnings through a tax haven will be taxed under a different part of the UK tax legislation. It's complicated, but I'm happy to go into more details if people want. Please trust me that it's practically impossible to shove profits into a tax haven and NOT have them taxed in the UK.
  • It is true that the branch exemption is only proposed to apply to large companies. That's because the Treasury wants to continue to provide tax incentives for small and medium businesses to start trading abroad (by allowing them to offset overseas branch losses against UK profits, as outlined above). It's meant to help smaller businesses, not shaft them.
  • It's true that many members of the advisory committees come from big business. There are two reasons for this. The first is that big business finds it easier to spare one individual to a government committe than small business does. The second is that many of the proposals relate to international taxation and many small and medium businesses don't operate internationally (and so don't have relevant experience). BTW, the committees are also packed with academics and retired judges for balance.
  • Tax havens again: Monbiot thinks that they've been legitimised. With all due respect, I disagree. You may have heard the phrase "race to the bottom" - it's the idea that "good" jurisdictions have to sink to the level of "bad" jurisdictions in order for their tax systems to remain competitive. But I don't see that in practice. Instead, what's happening is an emerging consensus in the international tax community about the norm of best practice, with intense pressure on non-compliant countries to step in line. In fact I've just been hired by a tax haven to assist it reform Smile. The "Treasure Islands" book is a cracking read, but some of it is incorrect and much of it is already out of date.
  • In my view, the tax system does enrich the megawealthy. I find it distasteful in the extreme. But it's nothing to do with branch exemption proposals. If you want to campaign, campaign against the private equity funds, whose partners can tax plan their personal tax rates down to a lower level than their cleaners'. Robert Peston writes very well on this.
  • It is factually correct that there is a net flow of financial resources from poor countries to rich countries. However, I dispute that it's tax motivated. It's also factually correct that rich countries have higher tax rates than poor countries. It doesn't make sense - from a pure tax perspective - to transfer profits from low tax poor countries to high tax rich ones; you'd just pay more tax! By far the most significant issue is corruption in poor countries. We all need to campaign for international assistance to stamp out corruption - that should be the message we scream from the rooftops.

OK. This might be a contender for Mumsnet's longest ever post! I'm happy to expand on any of the points, or address new ones, if you like.

ThisIsANiceCage · 11/02/2011 11:14

Wow, thank's for taking the time to write all of that - twice!

ThisIsANiceCage · 11/02/2011 11:15

thanks, obviously Blush

wheredidyoulastseeit · 11/02/2011 11:23

Thanks CinnabarRed that was really clear, maybe we need to learn more about those PEFs

FreeButtonBee · 11/02/2011 11:42

CinnabarRed

Fantastic post - thanks for taking the time!

Clytaemnestra · 11/02/2011 11:46

Brilliant! Hopefully this will go a long way to calming the fears caused by this article. Thank you so much for taking the time. Shame you can't send it to the Guardian for balance :)

CinnabarRed · 11/02/2011 11:53

I'm glad it's appreciated. I'll waive my usual fee! [Smile]

thumbdabwitch · 11/02/2011 12:09

Why can't she send it to the Guardian? letter to the editor, in response to Mr Monbiot's article - perfectly sound thing to do. He might not print it of course, but it's worth a go.

Thank you CinnabarRed.
So, IYO, these proposals are a good thing? or at least not a bad thing? Are there better options that are not being considered?

ThisIsANiceCage · 11/02/2011 12:23

Yes, I'd love to see this going to the Guardian.

I'm not sure if this is a worthwhile area to expand (just for MN, not the Graun), but CR isn't it the case that the tax system is only one issue in companies deciding location?

Labour laws, health & safety regs (esp in manufacturing, mining) and local markets for both labour and consumers (you touch on the Bahamas) are also significant. And among higher paid workers, the quality of life/lifestyle available in a given country can be a major deciding factor.

AgeingGrace · 11/02/2011 12:26

[applause]