What will happen to restaurants / cafes

[LaCouleurDeMonCiel]

Pre Covid / COL increase we would eat out as a family 1-2 a week. Eating out would often be spontaneous, places like Bills, Rosas Thai, pizzeria, etc. when we passed one while shopping or because we didn’t fancy cooking.

Now we have stopped the spontaneous meals because the prices are ridiculous. We still go out when we want to go to a specific restaurant or celebrate something but we don’t visit the casual low/mid range places because £100+ is too expensive for a quick ‘not that special’ meal.

Are we the only ones?
Will we see a change in the type of restaurants on the high streets? High end restaurants + cheap fast food ones but nothing in between?

Agree about hygiene standards. The other day a waitress petted my dog and I was a bit grossed out. I might pet my own dog and then eat without washing my hands but waiting staff should be more fastidious.

I work in a small tourist town and this has been the busiest winter we've ever had. A lot of places have reduced their opening hours even further from what they normally would in winter so that helps the places that are open still.
From talking to people etc it seems many are still feeling like they need to 'make up' for COVID when things were shut and I think there's partly a 'fuck it we deserve it' attitude because apart from in my own experience, I'm not seeing the effects of the cost of living crisis among the customers we're getting through the door.
We're very often fully booked so can't accept walk ins at weekends, and some weekdays - we were rammed on pancake day for example, or if we're not then the walk in tables fill very quickly.

People do seem to have this disconnect where prices are concerned though, everyone knows that the cost of everything has increased because they're dealing with it themselves, but can't connect that to rising prices in hospitality - you're paying more because it costs the business more in fuel and raw materials, but because prices have risen people have an expectation it should be more or better than before. The prices have risen to cover the costs of the raw materials to provide the service.

It's not an "obsession" it's a basic understanding of "use it or lose it". Just look what has happened with independent/small shops or local pubs - massive decline and loads of empty/derelict properties that drag the entire area down.

Local independents support each other. Your local independent sandwich shop, cafe or restaurant will be buying some of their goods from local suppliers, i.e. butchers, greengrocers, whether retail or wholesale. They'll bank their cash in a local bank or the post office. They'll use local accountants and solicitors and website designers and insurance brokers. They'll use local tradesmen, electricians, plumbers, etc. That keeps the local money circulating and keeps local people not only employed, but also using the local businesses, so it's like a merry go round of employment and using eachothers' services, with taxes paid at every step of the way contributing to the funding of public services!

When you use a big chain, they bring in contractors from outside the area, they bring in their ingredients from miles away in a lorry, they use a security firm to collect the cash, the profits go to shareholders, usually billionaire hedge funds living abroad in tax havens.

We are exactly the same! We used to go out twice a week, have takeaways and not think much of it. Now due to overall price increases everywhere (mortgage, insurances, nursery fees etc) we plan and do a food shop and don’t eat out much at all. I’m going out with my husband tonight- normally we would eat out and tonight I said let’s have tea here and just go for drinks.

@ichundich

you must have all had starters, sides for that??

The thing with Pizza Express and most other big chains is that they use the "mug pricing" model where the menu pricing is stupidly high but "deals" are easy to find with a quick google search which bring prices back down to normal/reasonable levels. The "mugs" are the ones who don't care about cost and will pay more (either because they have money or because they're not savvy enough to realise and check for offers). Most people find an offer. I first realised this when we were in a Pizza Express or Bella Italia and I noticed everyone around us showing their phones to the waitresses when it came to pay. I did a quick google search and found a 25% off code/voucher, so when it came to us, I showed her our code and hey-presto 25% off! The whole ethos of "mug" pricing is that discounts are easy to find if you bother looking, and to charge more for the mugs who don't!!

We have gone from an evening meal a week , to a lunch, restricting drinks and sides and we go for cheaper options. Also chippy tea for 4 is soooo expensive. We still get a large portion of chips. One of us goes for it, the other makes egg and beans.

@Maverickess People do seem to have this disconnect where prices are concerned though, everyone knows that the cost of everything has increased because they're dealing with it themselves, but can't connect that to rising prices in hospitality - you're paying more because it costs the business more in fuel and raw materials, but because prices have risen people have an expectation it should be more or better than before. The prices have risen to cover the costs of the raw materials to provide the service.

In theory, yes, I agree with this. But what I think people are noticing is the massive disconnect between increased price and quality. So, for example, my local restaurant/bar place, the prices have gone up. I paid £15 for a curry and my friend paid the same for a burger the other night. But the burger and the curry were of a similar quality to what I'd have expected from this place over the last 8 years I've been going there. I'd have got the same quality of burger and curry, albeit for £9 each, 8 years ago.

On the other hand, the local pub near my house has ALSO put their prices up substantially. A burger there is now £18. Many of their mains are over £20. And yet... the quality of the food there is erratic and often sub standard. So I do not eat at the local pub any more.

I accept I have to pay more, but I refuse to pay more and get less, when there ARE places that are able to maintain their quality, even as the prices increase.

Our area is a lot of older people and they're always drinking coffee or getting lunch, we are the same as you, we can't justify £100 on pizza and lemonade or pub type food for 4. It's a shame as I used to love a quick treat meal out mid week, but now we save the money to make sure we still have a nice holiday. I think once you're a couple the increases are less dramatic, and pensions are very well protected so some older people are actually doing well (my mums pension payments went up 9% this year on her NHS final salary pension, more than actual working nurses and doctors!) They eat out loads as they find shopping and cooking more of a bother than they used to. I know that's not all pensioners but the ones local to us (cotswolds) seem to have loads of time and plenty of spare income, plus the social interaction of eating out is a draw and they maybe can't do other things if mobility etc is an issue, whereas eating out is quite accessible for most.

DH and I went out for tea last night as couldn't be bothered to cook, and had been to a late appointment, spur of the moment decision.

2 pizzas in local place and a large glass of red wine each - £55 with tip.

That's quite a lot for a can't be bothered to cook tea.

We can afford it....but it made me think. It was busy for a Thursday night.

Now we go out less but to better places

I think this is what a lot of people are doing

I get what you're saying especially where prices increase and quality decreases but this is what I mean -

So, for example, my local restaurant/bar place, the prices have gone up. I paid £15 for a curry and my friend paid the same for a burger the other night. But the burger and the curry were of a similar quality to what I'd have expected from this place over the last 8 years I've been going there. I'd have got the same quality of burger and curry, albeit for £9 each, 8 years ago.

You say the quality of the food was the same, as 8 years ago, but the cost of the food, fuel to cook it and staff to do so and deliver it are vastly increased from 8 years ago. But you're expecting better quality than 8 years ago because you're paying more. You're not paying more because they've increased their prices in order to increase the quality, you're paying more because the cost to deliver that same burger and curry to the same standard today is higher than it was 8 years ago.
The business is paying more for the resources to provide it, they're not getting more for their money either.

I get that people can't afford it, I'm one of those people! But if the businesses try and absorb all the increase in costs for the last 8 years and deliver the same standard for the same price, then they aren't going to be around long.

You say the quality of the food was the same, as 8 years ago, but the cost of the food, fuel to cook it and staff to do so and deliver it are vastly increased from 8 years ago. But you're expecting better quality than 8 years ago because you're paying more. You're not paying more because they've increased their prices in order to increase the quality, you're paying more because the cost to deliver that same burger and curry to the same standard today is higher than it was 8 years ago.

No, I'm not expecting better quality. That's my point. I'm perfectly happy with my £15 burger and curry at the same quality as I was getting 8 years ago. Because as you say, I accept fully that the cost of making that food has gone up substantially. And that's probably why this restaurant is the local I go to the most often - yes, the price has gone up, but I haven't noticed any deterioration in quality.

My problem, is that lot of other places have also put up their prices, often MORE substantially, but the quality has simultaneously decreased. My local pub was never cheap, but it did used to be reliable and the food was fine. Now, I'm expected to pay £18 for a burger that at least half the time is over cooked and dry.

There do seem to be a lot of places that are using increased costs as an excuse to further increase their prices, without maintaining their quality and it's something I see a lot.

Perhaps another way to put it is that as a rule, 10 years ago, if I went into a certain type of restaurant, I'd pay similar prices no matter where I went and would probably have a perfectly decent meal. But now, the pricing AND the quality is just so incredibly variable that it makes me a bit suspicious.

Another way of looking at it is as someone upthread said - they'd rather eat out less often, at better restaurants. The truth is that a lot of pubs around here are the same price as central London mid level eateries. So I'll choose them every time. I had a lovely generous meal with lots of delicious food with some girl friends the other day, in central London, at a cost (without drinks) of £35 per head. I would pay the same, or more, for much less good food at many places.

My birthday is coming up and am wondering whether to do a family.meal for 4 in London at upwards of £130, or just treat DH and myself to tickets for Cabaret or similar. More inclined to Cabaret at the moment.

I get that an independent restaurant might be nicer than a chain. Since there's creativity in what they make. And I would add butcher's/green grocers to the list where independent is likely to be superior I believe local meat tastes better than supermarket meat.
But, I don't think it's always better. My local cafe isn't nicer than Pret or Coffee1 and isn't cheaper either. I don't see that an independent clothes shop or book shop (where what they sell is mass produced) is better than a chain. Chains employ people too. And I'd rather have a supermarket than a grotty corner shop, that closes at 6.
But I do accept that if you value a particular business then you do have to use it if you want it to remain.

We had a period a year or so ago where we were both working away and eating out a lot as nowhere to cook, up to about the middle of last year we still ate out quite regularly and got a takeaway once a fortnight but noticed an absolute dive in quality over a twelve month period.
Like others have said, a pretty basic pub meal is now £20 a main, some of it very obviously being frozen to boot. Takeaways with two pieces of chicken in etc. We’ve just had a few too many mediocre meals at high cost with poor service to really want to bother anymore (don’t get me started on ordering through apps or the service charges). I just don’t get excited by it like I used to.
I’ve gone back to meal planning - half an hour ish then I can buy exact amounts of good quality meat/fish/veg, do a slow cooker meal with extra to freeze and keep a couple of “quick” pasta or freezer options in. Probably spend the same as a single pub meal out. As others have said, somehow a lot of the places round here seem to be busy though I wonder if people are having just a main course and only one drink etc so it’s masking a reduced spend.

I seem to have bad luck in my area with independent coffee shops, a few I’ve tried serve drinks in ridiculously small cups. Another has a £5 per person minimum spend, there’s a big sign at the till and the owner reminds you as well. I only went in there once.

I don't think anyone said it's always better. I think you're the one generalising.

I have more than one local indie cafe. Some I don't think are that good, so I don't use them. I use the ones I like, which ARE better than Pret. But clearly some people do like the ones I don't use, as they're still open. I'm very happy for that to be the case;having multiple indies keeps the local area's economy going, for the reasons taxguru has given.

Indie clothes or bookshops sell mass-produced things, sure, but my local bookshop also showcases local authors and subjects. And their selection is more interesting than at many book chains, because they don't just get sent all the same books as everyone else from a centralised source. Same goes for indie clothes shops. And, as with indie cafes, the principle applies that they will tend to employ local people, use local services like plumbers etc.

My corner shops all stay open til long after six o'clock, too. Most of them aren't grotty either, and the ones that are are at least cheap.

@FinallyFeb I think we've just all been conditioned to think the massive buckets of coffee served in chains are normal.

So much hospitality ran for a long time off the backs of cheap, abundantly available staff. Now that's no longer the case, as there's been significant structural change in the last few years. I expect a lot more restaurants and cafes will struggle.

I think there are a few things going on. Firstly, the market is saturated with options now so of course, customers numbers per establishment will be lower.

I think we’re still seeing a hangover from Covid. People still work from home, the idea of post work drinks and dinner isn’t appealing as it used to be. People seem to enjoy spending more time at home. Deliveroo are certainly doing well out of this trend.

Certain places are still packed on a Monday and Tuesday and that’s because what they offer, people want.

Businesses have to remain current and keep investing to keep footfall high. That’s not a bad thing.

A lot of cafes, restaurants and pubs are closing because of the drop in numbers and the cost of fuel bills which means less on the high street. Again the government are not doing enough and it will be little to late when they do.

We never eat out now for lunch or dinner. We had lunch recent for the first time in probably years and it was expensive and not that nice. During Covid we really got into cooking things like pizzas from scratch and baking, so often anything we make is as nice as the average restaurant.

I do go out for breakfast a fair bit through as I’d never cook a breakfast at home (a lot of faff and not as nice at home)

This used to be the case pre covid but a lot fewer deals now. We used to always have an offer to use when eating out at those places, rarely now. It’s one reason the cost of a meal out has increased so much.