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Original poster

How the framing of the gender question in the Census has produced invalid data

69 replies

IwantToRetire · 09/04/2023 23:35

The census data released this week added to the list of anomalies. Muslims are almost three times more likely than non-religious people to identify as transgender. Black people are four times more likely than white people to identify as transgender. In every case, the census results contradict what we know from other data. For example, referrals to the Tavistock’s Gender Identity Development Service include far more white and non-religious youth than the overall population of the same age. By contrast, those census results are what would be expected if a number of people with poor English were confused by the question and inadvertently classified themselves as transgender.

The ONS has also finally this week released customised data showing the tabulation of gender identity by proficiency in English. As predicted, those who speak English ‘not well’ or ‘not well at all’ were most likely to be counted as transgender: 2.2 per cent of them, compared to 0.4 per cent of those whose main language is English (or Welsh in Wales). Adults whose main language is not English made up only 10 per cent of the overall population, but according to the census they contributed 29 per cent of the transgender numbers.

How did the ONS manage to produce such implausible data on gender identity? In ‘a case study of policy capture’, the statisticians were guided by lobby groups like Stonewall. It is surely no coincidence that the gender question replicated, with minor variation, Stonewall’s definition of ‘cisgender’: ‘Someone whose gender identity is the same as the sex they were assigned at birth’.

www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-does-the-census-say-there-are-more-trans-people-in-newham-than-brighton/

OP posts:
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Justnot · 24/04/2023 21:57

Resister - thanks for links and explanations. Is there any information on what the actual answer to the gender identity question was taken to mean eg if you answered no gender identity does it mean your non binary and therefore trans (that’s practically a wild guess!)?

ResisterRex · 24/04/2023 19:26

I think the ONS says it's consistent. That was on 14 April so it must be after the data were queried by Biggs:

11 April
Watchdog to examine ‘implausible’ UK census trans figures
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cffadd74-d889-11ed-80bc-e358583c5d62?shareToken=f3466bc21278f4e816f79e734e0ccca9

Original poster
IwantToRetire · 24/04/2023 19:21

@ResisterRex Thanks

So they are saying the census results are consistent with previous estimates?

Do the previous estimates explain why there appears to be a higher rate of those identifying as trans in areas where english is a second language?

And alll they are going to do is look at how they respond/ed to people who queried them?

OP posts:
ResisterRex · 24/04/2023 18:58

In the OSR link, they mention this, published by the ONS on 14 April:

www.ons.gov.uk/news/statementsandletters/genderidentityincensus2021

"The census findings on gender identity are broadly consistent with other sources including previous Government Equalities Office estimates and other comparable countries’ data. The estimated number of transgender people is slightly lower in the census than in a separate 2021 NHS survey.

The question on gender identity was tested thoroughly and the whole census questionnaire was available translated into nearly 50 languages to ensure it could be properly understood. When other formulations of the gender identity question were tested – for example simply asking respondents whether they are transgender – the question was less well understood than the final formulation that was used in Census 2021."

And the OSR says they're going to do a review:

"The scope of our review will be formed around the principles within the Code of Practice for Statistics and will consider ONS’ approach to responding to questions raised by users about the results of the data. It will not consider gender identity as a concept or the decision to collect data on gender identity."

I assume those principles are important. They must be these ones?

code.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/the-code/

"The framework for the Code of Practice is based on three pillars – Trustworthiness, Quality and Value.

Each pillar contains a number of principles and detailed practices that producers should commit to when producing and releasing official statistics. On each Code principle page there is a table with guidance and resources and links to case studies.
The Code also has three cross-cutting themess_, areas of practice that don’t fit within just one pillar – collaboration, coherence, and transparency.
The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR))_ reviews compliance with the Code. OSR also offers Code training seminars and workshops for statistics producers."

Although that states Code, it's the closest to Principles that I could find. So was the ONS question based on trustworthiness, quality and value? And produced via collaboration, coherence and transparency? That's my best guess.

Original poster
IwantToRetire · 24/04/2023 18:06

Can someone explain what this means?!!

I've read it twice and just dont understand.

Blush.

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HinCogNeetOh · 24/04/2023 17:40

Thank you for the recent updates.

EmpressaurusOfCats · 24/04/2023 17:25

Huh.

Justnot · 24/04/2023 17:05

I got this email today from statsitics.gov

Dear Justnot

Thank you for raising your concerns with us regarding the England and Wales Census 2021 data on gender identity and for your patience while we investigated the issues. We appreciate the detailed information that you have shared with us throughout this process.

Today we have

written to ONS to confirm that we will be undertaking a review of statistics on gender identity based on data collected as part of the 2021 England and Wales Census. We will be working with ONS to complete this within the next few months. The evidence you
have provided to date, as well as feedback we plan to collect as part of the review, will be used to inform our judgement.

Thank you once again for contacting us. We would be happy to discuss this matter further with you if you have any additional concerns.

Kind regards

MrsOvertonsWindow · 12/04/2023 10:25

Share token for the Times article:

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cffadd74-d889-11ed-80bc-e358583c5d62?shareToken=e1afd4701afbaec2598f3be0ef88f9c4

MrsOvertonsWindow · 12/04/2023 10:24

Very pleased to see this embarrassing shambles being reported in the Times and the Telegraph. Mangling national datas on order to pander to the gender woowoo addicts needs calling out everywhere.

Original poster
IwantToRetire · 12/04/2023 00:11

It's being looked at by the Office for Statistics Regulation

Well that's a turn up. When the figures came out there were all sorts of celebrations about having "accurate" figures about the trans community, and now this.

But they only have themselves to blame.

But also, if it was the Spectator article that has made them do that, good on them for doing proper journalism.

Just leaves open the question why couldn't those responsible for collecting census data have done a proper job.

OP posts:
ResisterRex · 11/04/2023 22:41

It's being looked at by the Office for Statistics Regulation:

Watchdog to examine ‘implausible’ UK census trans figures

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cffadd74-d889-11ed-80bc-e358583c5d62?shareToken=f6bf85eeac659d8e129c40853824bb31

nilsmousehammer · 11/04/2023 08:08

DutchCowgirl · 11/04/2023 07:02

I just try to give a reason why data show this increase. I’m not saying it is a great idea…

Show quote history

It's clear in the article and analysis why the increase: there is a direct link between not speaking English as a first language and having ticked the trans box. The language and concepts were designed for a very first world group who, like the Tavistock et al have been recording for years are all very white and middle class statistically, all thoroughly soaked in the ideas and language on Reddit.

It was not designed for the real or diverse culture of the UK, it was tested only only the demographic who designed it for feelz and political enjoyment of that small political lobby group and with no interest at all in anyone else or data or outcomes, and it represents a full taxpayer funded cock up.

Happylittlechicken · 11/04/2023 07:12

So if so many people are trans they’re not a vulnerable oppressed minority are they?

DutchCowgirl · 11/04/2023 07:02

CliantheLang · 10/04/2023 23:58

And then everyone applauded.

Show quote history

I just try to give a reason why data show this increase. I’m not saying it is a great idea…

CliantheLang · 10/04/2023 23:58

DutchCowgirl · 10/04/2023 21:16

In some islamic countries it is more accepted to be transsexual then to be gay.
As a student I once had this friend from Iran and she was terrified of coming to Europe because she might be in a changing room or a public toilet with a lesbian. Whereas in Iran lesbians would change sex and never be in the same private spaces with women…

And then everyone applauded.

DutchCowgirl · 10/04/2023 21:16

In some islamic countries it is more accepted to be transsexual then to be gay.
As a student I once had this friend from Iran and she was terrified of coming to Europe because she might be in a changing room or a public toilet with a lesbian. Whereas in Iran lesbians would change sex and never be in the same private spaces with women…

DodoPatrol · 10/04/2023 21:14

Is the gender you identify with the same as your sex registered at birth?

As another poster said, I found this hard to answer because sex is a fact, whereas gender is a human idea. It felt like it was asking ‘is your religion the same as your eye colour?’ or something.

Original poster
IwantToRetire · 10/04/2023 20:54

Is there a phrase for knowing you were right are the time but ignored, and then at a later time you are proved right but people keep saying that you aren't right!

Sometimes being on FWR is a bit like that! We should send a memo to all government departments and say before doing anything start a thread on FWR and then we will know what we really need to do!

The ONS were so captured by the trans lobby that Fair Play for Women had to take a successful challenge to the courts

I had forgotten this but made me think we need like a "milestones" thread were we keep a record of challenges to the trans narrative, and the outcome.

As well as (and I am sure this has been said before) someone needs to draw up one of the family tree type charts showing were certain individuals have managed to get into positions of influence, which lobby groups they are part of, and friendship circle. The TRAs but the Freemasons to shame.

On design of surveys, I dont know the answer, but even as and everyday box ticker, everyone must be aware that using obscure words or phrases that are only common to a few is just a big no no.

The same, but in a different context, some women's groups are now talking about "minoritised" woman. And usually this is because their group has come underpressure for not being aware enough about the exclusions of minorities.

Nothing wrong with that, and good that the think about it. But to most women as readers of the statements from women's groups who read about women being minoritised probably think what? who?

Too often these types of pharses, as in the gender id questions, the priority is virtue signalling to a small group you want to impress, be in favour with.

And of course also as other have commented, important for those who have english as a second language.

One can only wonder, assuming humans are still around, what someone in a hundred years will make of this census question.

But again as said upthread, and on another thread about including asexuals under the rainbow umbrella. How is it that such a tiny group has been given such rights to appropriate everything?

Imagine if it wasn't queer theory that was subverting most parts of our life, but for instance communism, would everybody just sit round going, good for you, you are so brave.

OP posts:
Gobbolinothekitchencat · 10/04/2023 20:23

Or

What was your sex at birth? Male/female

Have you changed your registered sex through GRC? Yes/ No/ NA

Do you consider yourself 1) Trans 2) Non-binary 3) Other identify (free text box) 4) N/A

Would have been interesting for the question above to filter responses to first three boxes to another question to ask for age range when this change occurred.

There should also be brief definitions of GRC in plain language along with trans and non-binary although the latter would be problematic. Don’t like the choice of ‘identify’ as an option but couldn’t think of another term, no real way to stop that becoming like the Jedi response from a previous census.

Been a long time since I worked in research, so what do I know?

Ourladycheesusedatum · 10/04/2023 18:02

Justnot · 10/04/2023 13:00

[email protected]

if you want to complain/query

I think we all did at the time. For me now it's too late. A whole bunch of us donated to the fairplay crowdfunder for the court case too.

There wont be any more cenus's/census' censi?
So it doesnt matter any more.

nepeta · 10/04/2023 17:42

The question they used supposedly was not tested except among the alphabet group. It should have been extensively tested outside it, too.

It has at least two major problems: The first is that there is no way to know if people actually possess something called 'gender identity' or if most people 'identify' or not with their biological sex.

For those of us who don't believe in the existence of an abstract gender identity the question just forces us to pretend that we do, in order to go on answering the questions. There is no answer stating that the question is not relevant, for instance.

So strictly speaking many might have answered that their gender identity does not match the sex that was registered at their birth because they don't have an abstract gender identity to begin with. All those people would then be counted as transgender.

The second is that the language used there comes from the transgender movement, is not familiar to most outside it, and yet this was simply ignored by those who created the question. Especially for those who don't speak English as their main language the question might have seemed impossible to understand. Sex, for instance, is not always registered at birth in some countries recent immigrants come from, and in some languages there is no way of distinguishing 'gender' from 'sex'.

Even for those who speak English and grew up in the UK the question what 'gender' might mean here is left unexplained. Is it sexist stereotypes about being a woman or a man?

Seems a likely way to look at it, so if this question is asked of a feminist woman she should, strictly speaking, state that her gender identity does not match her sex, because 'gender' now seems to refer to all the nasty stereotypes second wave feminism tried to get rid of, such as women wearing makeup, high heels, short dresses, women being submissive etc.

As others have stated, this whole movement is a giant "sexism strikes back" movement.

nilsmousehammer · 10/04/2023 14:55

Argh. That brings back horrible memories of working for a very 'progressive' firm where staff performance evaluations used to include modern, exciting questions like 'does this person get on the bus?'

Which used to garner replies such as 'I have no idea what information you're looking for'.

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