I suspect The Fail report is most likely true. Its also my suspicion too.
Sturgeon didn't meantion the GRR once in her speech. And the rumour is she wants to try and go into some kind of human rights / lgbt rights role after this. So you'd think that she'd want to stress her commitment to trans rights but didn't. She did keep going on about women's rights though - which for me suggests she knows she's politically wounded on that and thats the noteworthy bit especially as she also kept on talking about her commitment to independence....
The way the GRR has been handled is dreadful, and Sturgeon pretty much walked straight into a political trap with it. By ploughing ahead with it, to the point Westminster intervened she created a problem for the SNP that was political suicide for her. She tied the GRR to Independence in a battle that almost inevitability is doomed to fail. She inadvertedly linked independence to a bill which is tarnished by the growing spectre of children being harmed and the concept of female rapists, murderers and paedos with penises in women's prisons. Not exactly a public winning combo to muster support for independence. I think if you made a list of things not to link to your main political ambition, looking like you support harming children, rapists and murderers is pretty close to the top of faux pas and things you would be mad to risk. Yet, Sturgeon has managed to play a blinder and played her best Top Trump card here. That takes some mighty skill to fuck up that badly. I suspect there are many SNP supporters slow hand clapping and joining conga lines celebrating her departure.
Her actions had meant for the SNP, they ultimately put themselves in a position where it was a choice to continue to keep going with the GRR and put the already stalled and blocked pursuit for another referredum and the chances of a yes vote OR drop the GRR and work to try and make progress and focus on independence again.
Ultimately I think it comes down to whether Gender Rights are more important than Independence for the SNP because of the way Sturgeon has handled it and the Tories have blocked her move to overrule Westminster. Thats never going to be a contest. (Its an interesting dynamic to watch with the Greens btw - they have a similar conflict. But not necessarily a problem that the LDs have)
It was a power over reach which damages the Independence Movement and thats the red line for the grassroots SNP. Its not opposition within the party to the GRR thats killed it - its the linkage to fucking up the prospects of independence.
Coupled with a financial scandal in the offing and other controversies lurking in the wings, I very much doubt Sturgeon could have survived the storm of trying to go ahead with it. Hence jumping before pushed after reading the room and realising the writing on the wall.
If the priority for the SNP, is indeed, independence and going head to head with Westminster in an attempted power over reach (which I suspect lawyers have looked at and suggested is going to be difficult to win in court and is also paying a part in Sturgeon's decision making), the natural outcome would be to try and quietly drop the GRR in a damage limitation exercise to Independence ambitions.
My thought is that it leaves the GRR in its current form dead.
Its possible that it could be revived after a General Election in some form so I don't think its buried. But I think by then we will be at a point where sunlight has been shone in even greater depth on the Tavistock and the rapist clause isn't going anywhere fast. I think that means that Self ID if it does start to be pushed by a possible Labour government (possibly with SNP support north of the border if the SNP maintain their dominance there) its going to have to include a fair few exceptions or nuance clauses.
That might actually make it harder to stop in the long run - but it might take out some of the worst elements of it and give Women's Rights groups crucial time to make their case and be heard by the public to a greater degree.
And in the interim I think theres a fair chance of more scandal emerging from poor handling of conflicting rights and how its also sparking a backlash that isn't necessarily in the interests of those who identify as trans.
My expectation is something will problem be back on the table in the next two years - probably now lead from Westminster itself, but its not going to be the proposals we are currently seeing.
And I would imagine that the way things unravel and public reception to these stories will be being carefully watched.
I suspect Sturgeon isn't much of a chess player because she really didn't see all the moving pieces.