Keir Starmer confirms Labour will push ahead with self ID (7th Feb 2023)

We can't know much Starmer's intentions as he is happy to backtrack on pledges and tell people want they want to hear. The only thing we can say for sure is firstly he has some natural scepticism about this stuff, because he was only one who refused to sign up to a trans rights charter when running for leadership in 2020 when he was promising everything else under the sun to everyone.

Secondly there are signs that if Starmer becomes convinced that gender stuff is truly electoral poison he will sideline it. Because that is what he has done with anything else which seems like it might lose votes. He is ruthless when he needs to be. I am not saying he is going to do this,just pointing out anyone who has underestimated Starmer's readiness to toss them overboard has found themselves in the water.

At the moment he playing off both sides which is why he is unpopular on Mumsnet and on Reddit. Why because his own shadow cabinet is divided over this.

So what happens in Scotland is vital. If Scottish women can derail the SNP and there are signs they can then there is a real chance Labour will backtrack, while pretending otherwise.

As for voting check the personal position of every candidate in every party in your constituency. No one party can be trusted.

Ok, a sample from what? Where is the data being pulled from? Agreeing on issues online or somewhere else?

It was a YouGov poll. YouGov usually invites its members and then does screening questions about age, gender (yes, annoying), council area, and for these polls, how you voted in elections and the Scottish referendum before, so they get a representative sample of the population. dp usually gets yougov invitations but he didn't do this one, he says.

They contact a pool of people, do demographic checks first to get the right balance in the pool, then survey on political questions.

Not to be confused with self-selecting issue surveys, usually online.

Proper opinion polling is pretty scientific. There are sometimes issues where weighting is wrong but if an opinion is widespread, it will show up in proper polling.

Here's hoping the MSM picks up on it and forces him to clarify what he means.

Given Sturgeon's current difficulties, I'm assuming he doesn't want to jump on her bandwagon.

There is absolutely no evidence this issue will change outcomes in the red wall seats.

I like the idea that red wall seats are decided by the switching votes of middle class feminist voters, if only it were so.

Ok, a sample from what? Where is the data being pulled from? Agreeing on issues online or somewhere else?

Single issue, Brexit party style?

KJK is going to run in Starmer’s constituency, for sunlight purposes.

Yep, that's me too.

I hope that Labour are not going to pursue self ID. I do think the tide has turned and the talk of reform is the only way they can think of to fudge this. But ultimately, self ID is not the only issue I care about. The Tories have done so much damage over the last decade or so. I need them gone, and Labour is the best hope for getting rid of them.

In any case, we've had men in female prisons and other female spaces on a Tory watch. They might make all the right noises, but I'm not convinced that they actually give a toss about protecting women in any case.

We’ll see. I remember Penny M feeling fairly happy with the polls and this issue pretty much taking her out via the media

I wouldn’t call it either way yet, but any party limply clinging onto gender lies are exposed to a media focus on it.

He has MPs who absolutely believe in this and they won’t be removed

A Women's Rights Party running in local / bye elections might concentrate his mind.

Even if they didn't win they could siphon off Labour votes?

The Tories ended up dropping the price from
£150 to a fiver and moved the application forms online.

They’ve not said there are any more ‘reforms’ planned.

there is genuinely no party left to vote for… I’ve never not voted, not what else to do?

Starmer's going to end up doing a Sturgeon and snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

The Conservatives must be dancing for joy. This will help them retain the Red Wall.

Sadly I think this is absolutely right. I talked to my daughter and her husband about this the other day and they will vote Labour regardless just to get rid of the Tories. Their daughters are only six and three, and so are most of their friends' children, so the issue regarding young trans people hasn't featured in their lives yet. I also talked to other (male) voters who said that the number of trans people was very small so they didn't see why it should be a problem (completely missing the whole point of the risks in self-ID).

I'm opposed to self ID but fully intend to vote Labour. Getting rid of the Tories is my priority, I just can't vote on this issue alone. I'm sure that there are lots of people like me

As a pp said Ben Bradshaw is the MP who shouted at Rosie Duffield in the House of Commons. So he may be stirring about something he wants to happen rather than knowing the full facts.

That's not how polling works, they don't need to ask YOU because if lots of people agree on an issue, it'll show up in a representative sample.

I'm not saying I know, but all the polling has this issue non-existent in most voters' lists.

Agreed!

*haven’t

Same here

The post I quoted said exactly that!

oblivious to current affairs
tribal voters
of the opinion women are not fully human

Quite. Until it is an announced policy, it is not policy.