Tory meltdown hurting our chances to turn Labour round?

I also can't see either Boris or Penny making the 100 nominations cut.

The early declarations are the fan boys/girls and we've yet to see a sustained sway from a majority of MP's.

There will be a lot of horse trading going on behind the scenes right now and many MP's will be keeping quiet fir the moment.

Personally I think (hope) a majority will unite behind Sunak. The question is if it will be enough to result in him being "crowned" without a party membership vote.

That said, even if it comes to that I suspect the membership might feel bruised enough over their support for Truss not to gamble on Mordant. Yes, she did relatively well last time, but a lot of questions were raised and frankly Sunak predicted the economic mess and that will hold him in good stead.

As for Boris, I can't see him getting to 100 - that said these are crazy times.

If they do bring him back I don't think the Tory part has a chance in hell re: the next GE.

You can't oust a PM (who is still under investigation) and then bring him bank all sins forgiven.

Tory MP's and Party members need to reflect on the past 2 years and learn some hard lessons.

Most of all, given the shit we are in, it's no time for experimentation or being gleeful about rehabilitation of a relic.

Like him or not, Sunak will have the most credibility with the markets.

The only other scenario imho is if Wallace decides to run and if so, I think there's are good chance he'd be seen as a solid unity candidate.

Urgh @teawamutu sorry can't find that and take it back.

Mordaunt is a tax cutter. It's the Tory MPs who will put the brakes on her ambition, after the Truss fiasco.

Oh well, if Mordaunt wins the whole debate about who is better on this issue will evaporate. Mordaunt will bring in Labour policy for them. And they will cheer her on.

@MangyInseam, she was the third most popular member among MPs. The second most popular MP resigned today. Mordaunt is now top 2.

We are fucked. No amount of wishful thinking changes that. We are fucked.

She didn't get that far because she was already thoroughly fucked.

And people like BJ. The MPs themselves may well think they made a mistake getting rid of him, driven mainly by the media. If he doesn't go for the leadership again - and I have no special reason to think he would - the person he backs may have a real advantage. He actually has a lot of political nous, his problem is his personal foibles.

I suppose it doesn't really matter who it is. They have lost their credibility ERG/IEA's credibility... whoever it is needs to hang in until January 2025.

I've decided to rejoin the Labour Party and wait for the peak. It's going to happen soon. It's turning in Scotland already with a lot of opposition to the GRA bill... Leader of Scottish Labour, Anas Sarwar knows a woman has a cervix for a start.

I agree it's too big a hill to climb for Mordaunt. The schmoozing and moderate incompetence can only take her so far, and she is at that point now and probably beyond it.

And carrying a lot of baggage.

It would make him some sort of weird political legend.

Imagine how jealous Trump would be!

He’s flying back early apparently, so he must be keen

100 supporters by Monday is a big task and I don’t think Penny can do it.

Will she drop out early enough to give Rishi her supporters if Rishi promises her one of the big cabinet positions?

if it goes to the membership, Boris will win.

I agree with Guido though - Boris can command huge amounts of dosh as an after dinner speaker, way more than the PM job pays. Will he prioritise easy money or revenge on his political enemies?

Could go either way.

Oh I just had such a good laugh with DH at the thought of Boris coming back and knocking out the wall between 10 & 11 to really open up the space for parties 😂 he couldn’t possibly come back? Surely not.

They really do

I just nabbed this from another thread

Guido Fawkes has a more up to date spreadsheet:
order-order.com/2022/10/20/whos-backing-who-the-spreadsheet-returns/

Johnson currently on 38
Sunak on 27
Mordaunt on 12

So why are you not holding them to account also for the issues they are not solving. Why do you just drag the one point of labour around, it devalues the debate massively when there are people just concentrating on the potential issues that may come about.

Ffs what do you expect me to do to hold the Tories to account? I won't be voting for them at the general election does that help? I am critical that the Tories haven't moved fast enough to deal with gender ideology but at least some of their MPs are making the effort. I am critical that the Tories fudged the prisons review. I write to my Tory MP so frequently that he no longer bothers to reply.

I am still critical of proposed Labour legislation because I think it will harm women. How does that devalue the debate?

I’m actually kind of amused at the thought we might end up back with BoJo.

’BOUNCE BACK BORIS!’

The headlines write themselves.

Liz probably didn’t even get a chance to have Carrie’s fancy wallpaper taken down.

Mordaunt was left in the best place at the end of the leadership race because she didn't enter that awful round of gouging. She is sufficiently distanced from PM Johnson. She appeals to the ERG wing.

Penny Mordaunt is going to be our next PM. We are fucked.

So why are you not holding them to account also for the issues they are not solving.

People including users of this board do. We write letters to our Tory MPs, we participated in the GRA consultation, we help fund other women’s legal battles against various authorities like the college of policing, like Tavistock, councils… I mean where have you been? But the very basic starting point, sex self ID & the sex based rights women and girls are currently entitled to, is a huge concern for all the reasons already outlined.

Time is a thing.

People have been holding the Tories to account, it's why things have been happening. No one has stopped.

The fact that there is a political crisis at the moment is the issue. It means that they are not really looking at social policy.

But what is really the impetus of the thread is the possibility, which seems quite real, that there will be some kind of confidence issue and they will not be able to continue to form the government.

And chances are that will mean a Labour government soon. Before the Tories have had a chance to really solidify the changes and protections needed, and while gender ideology is really just at a tipping point.

If Labour is in soon, it is still very possible for them to go ahead with the policies they are talking about, within a year there could be legislation on the table around things like misgendering being a hate crime. Which could make even talking about this issue in the public sphere difficult. If they extend the conversion therapy ban it means parents will be between a rock and a hard place if their kids need to see a professional therapist.

This is an urgent concern, about an imminent possibility. And people should be damn well scared that Labour is not coming round about this. The Tories have, largely, but Labour is still captured, the supposedly existing terfy Labour MPs are too chicken to speak out, and there could be a Labour government within six months.

I'm not obsessed and I'm not angry. I am actually quite dispassionate politics in general. I recognise Labour are likely to win at the next election and I recognise that they are probably, on balance, marginally better for women (on a population level) but I also recognise that they are likely to bring in Self ID and other authoritarian legislation that impact more on individual women. I strongly disagree with this proposed legislation. These are Labour policies that I am critical of, they are not Tory policies. If they were Tory policies I would still be critical of them. Labour will potentially be in power very soon. I have every right to be critical of their policies.

I'm sorry but why should I place my faith in this mystery group of Labour MPs? If they haven't got the nerve to speak up now why on earth should I trust them when there's a chief whip wrestling them into the self ID voting lobby?

I normally sympathise with anyone who feels they have to keep their head down - Lord knows I do it myself. But then I'm not running for public office.

The argument is NOT that the Tories are better for women in general or that people must vote Tory at the next election, just that on this issue Labour have promised a policy that will harm women and possibly children if they bring in therapy bans for children

So why are you not holding them to account also for the issues they are not solving. Why do you just drag the one point of labour around, it devalues the debate massively when there are people just concentrating on the potential issues that may come about.

Rather than highlighting how these issues are being allowed to continue, you can make all the lists you like, but under our current government womens rights are not being protected. We shouldn't be ignoring this for 2 years or aiming our worries at 2 years away, distracting from the current government failings we should be holding this government to account now. And guess what, they are still letting us down.

Again Penny Mordaunt said "Transmen are men, Transwomen are women"
Whats your view on that from the tories who know what a woman is?

I think maybe people are thinking back and wondering if they made a mistake to get rid of him.

But I don't think PM was left in a good place at all at the end of the leadership race, and Truss's failure won't make her look better - maybe worse. I'd put my chips on Sunak, people will want someone they believe knows something practical about money.

I honestly can't believe that they will not speak out now. If they did it together, as a group, they would be in a very good position to make it clear that the LP needs to stop blocking candidates who have terfy views on this. "Labour ejects 30 MPs" is a shocking headline no matter how you slice it.

Sure, there is a risk they could end up being deselected, even ejected from the party. But being deselected by the voters is always a possibility in politics so presumably they are ready for that in a way people in regular jobs often are not.