Penny Mordant's bid for leadership is surely over

twitter.com/alantravis40/status/1545111580064595968?s=21&t=-XT3f_djSLYvoxGPGdA5oA

I did see on twitter yesterday that the average Tory member is 57, white & 70% of them are men. They aren’t activists - they don’t go out door knocking or campaigning

apparently they are apoplectic about the state of the economy so not keen on Rishi & like penny because she’s not too associated with Johnson.

So we’ve swapped one lying bastard for another if she wins. Awesome. When did politics get like this, where a party can’t field one decent candidate out of the whole party. It’s the same as when it was Trump v Clinton. Was that seriously the best America could do?

I think they’ve determined that not enough people care, and she can revert to her previous (insane) position.

So Maria Miller doesn’t want Penny to win then? I thought they were friends?

Maria Miller appearing on Sky News this morning: trans issues are simultaneously so important that they need to be elevated above politics, because they are about how people live their lives, and so unimportant that they are not an issue in the campaign. Oh, and trans women are women, that’s Mordant’s opinion and that’s the law.

I think that can depend, I don't know that I would generalize. I don't think it's the case the members necessarily feel that MPs have some sort of moral obligation to do what the members want. If anything MPs have an obligation to the electorate.

Odds on favourite having done nothing to justify that, maybe there is substance behind Mordaunt, we havn’t seen any yet, so not impressed.

Thanks for pointing that out, I’d never have guessed 🙄

Thing is that the membership can see straight through it. If the parliamentary party deprives it of its preferred candidate, it will punish it. They ignore the membership or treat it with contempt at their peril.

Yep.

Her opponents are capitalizing on it to influence votes.

This quite clearly explains what’s happening.

conservativehome.com/2022/07/14/the-danger-for-the-conservatives-and-the-country-of-tory-mps-voting-one-way-and-activists-the-other/

She’s not doing it for Tory party members who don’t give a shit. She’s doing it for the benefit of the media and because her opponents are capitalising on it. Braverman stuck the knife in and twisted it on PM this afternoon, with Evan Davies enabling and egging her on. She’s got the right really rattled and they seem to think nobody can see through their tactics.

If she didn't think it was an issue among Tory members she'd not be feeling the need to change her rhetoric.

Presumably that'll depend on the gap between them. If two candidates are neck and neck 3% could easily swing a leadership contest.

The issue has an indirect effect too. If PM's contradictions result in her being perceived as untrustworthy, or if she falls apart when asked a simple question, then it makes her less credible all round.

Guido's take:
order-order.com/2022/07/14/penny-is-transitioning-her-toxic-to-tories-trans-stance-for-the-membership/

If only we had nothing more to worry about than the Trans culture war.

I can't imagine it being the major topic on the doorstep with households really struggling, or with Conservative members who just want tax cuts.

3% of Tory members say trans issues are important for them. You’re kidding yourselves if you think this will swing the leadership contest.

I think Truss is my least favourite out of the two

It may just be stylistic but I find it hard to listen to her speak. Having said that I’m yet to listen to her candidate bid maybe she’ll change my mind.

I don’t like PM’s stance but I don’t feel the same threat from her on the issue as I would Labour - as Starmer would have more of party behind him

I think maybe a lot of regular people see her as moderate, and maybe Blair-like in a way though that's a weird comparison in some ways. But an election winner, with a good camera presence.

The trans issue might be an issue with some MPs but I suspect it’s peripheral with most, assuming Mordaunt gets through to the final 2 it’s not likely to be an issue with most Tory members. Economic issues are going to be far more important

This. She’s hot favourite with the Tory membership and the bookies now.

Just catching the last few minutes of Politics Live and I see Paris Lees is on.
All I got from her was Penny is making transphobic jokes, and is TWAW really the most important issue?

The Mail are covering her reverse ferret now...

The Thatcher "Willie" quote was about William Whitelaw a famous politician in Thatcher's cabinet. It's a famous quote for Tories

The trans issue might be an issue with some MPs but I suspect it’s peripheral with most, assuming Mordaunt gets through to the final 2 it’s not likely to be an issue with most Tory members.
Economic issues are going to be far more important - Sunak or not Sunak!.