There has been an 80% increase in sexual abuse by women over the past few years. Apparently.

The responses to that DL thread are predictable.

Wanting special treatment for black people etc etc.

This is the problem I suppose. If you accept trans people are v oppressed and you know only too well the pushback of trying to do anything around minority representation. Then any pushback re trans gets put in that category.

It's a rubbish reaction but I suppose I get it.

Generally. For DL that rights hoarding shit. Nah. No leeway misognist.

Some official body said that-

It was wrong to consider that massive increase in women committing sex offences could be down to self ID.
Because implies anyone who declares female ID to police could be male as that implies TW can be sex offenders. (Ignores that people can lie about ID)...

Therefore they are saying that based on wanting to protect one group for ideology based reasons,

It must be accepted that female people ARE committing sex offences at a much higher rate.

So they're ok with insisting that women are sex offenders way more than previously.

Right that needs looking into as v worrying numbers increasing.

Look into it how though?

Since they've changed women to mean people of both sexes, this data is now totally worthless and there's no point in reporting on it. It shows nothing, it demonstrates nothing, it's actively misleading, it cannot be used as a basis for anything at all and it's a waste of public purse and time now in bothering to collect it.

Which is exactly what was predicted.

MBM has started its own thread about their report and the EHRC:

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/womens_rights/4392826-EHRC-influence-over-ScotGovs-guidance-on-collection-of-data-on-sex

The EHRC annotated the draft saying this was an offensive example that suggested trans women were sex offenders

So we have to pretend there are no transwomen sex offenders in case it hurts someone's feelings. Absurd.

So is there an increase in sex offences committed by transwomen or there is an increase in men who are not trans claiming to be trans once they get caught? Because we all know it won't be females. Who knows with self ID 'I am whatever I say I am' bollocks.

Either way it proves we need single sex spaces more than ever. Because opening up female spaces to penis people is already proven to be a fucking stupid idea.

Surely there is data that shows how many women committed sex crimes by year, and data that shows how many people identified as trans women by year?

I strongly suspect that there would be a clear correlation between increased number of women committing sex crimes and the numbers of extra trans women.

I believe that it is entirely reasonable - as a starting point - to assume -

(1) That being trans does not make someone less likely to commit a sex offence than others of their sex. In fact is is probably reasonable to assume that they are more likely given the links between porn and sexual offending and porn and trans.
and
(2) therefore that a massive increase in women sex offenders at the same time as a massive increase in numbers of trans women is highly likely to be a direct result of men calling themselves women int he numbers.

That is the assumption, do we have evidence to confirm what we reasonably believe to be true, or do we research further and find our reasonable assumptions were wrong?

eg - illustrative numbers (all made up!!!)

1 in 100 men are sex offenders.
1 in 10,000 women are sex offenders.

1m women means 100 women's sex offences.
But then 8,000 men decide to claim to identify as trans women
This means 80 new women's sex offences.
180 total = 80% increase.

I would be entirely unsurprised if the numbers looked something like that. I would also be unsurprised if they were the same as above apart from -

1m women means 100 women's sex offences.
But then 4,000 men decide to claim to identify as trans women
This should means 40 new women's sex offences, but it turns out trans women offend at double the rate of other men, so there are actually 80 new offences
180 total = 80% increase.

I wonder how many of those women have penises.

In one draft of guidence data processors were advised that if there were surprising results in data, for example an increase of women on boards, or as sex offenders, then the researchers should look into why this is, and consider the possibility that it was a result of self id data collection.

The EHRC annotated the draft saying this was an offensive example that suggested trans women were sex offenders.

Bari Weiss' resignation letter has many phrases that would apply here. To borrow them:

If a person’s ideology is in keeping with the new orthodoxy, they and their work remain unscrutinized. Everyone else lives in fear of the digital thunderdome. Online venom is excused so long as it is directed at the proper targets.

Twitter is not on the masthead of [The EHRC]. But Twitter has become its ultimate [arbiter]. As the ethics and mores of that platform have become those of the [EHRC], the [EHRC], itself has increasingly become a kind of performance space. Stories [and causes] are chosen and told in a way to satisfy the narrowest of audiences, rather than to allow a curious public to read about the world and then draw their own conclusions.

nowadays, standing up for principle at the paper does not win plaudits. It puts a target on your back.

www.bariweiss.com/resignation-letter

MBM Policy have just published this report about data collecting in Scotland. Click through to download the full report.
murrayblackburnmackenzie.org/2021/11/04/diminishing-the-value-of-public-sector-data-how-the-chief-statisticians-guidance-lost-sight-of-biological-sex/

In it, their FOI requests show the Equality and Human Rights Commission tried to prevent people questioning whether a rise in the number of female sex offenders could be down to recording perpetrators by self identified genderrsther than sex.

In one draft of guidence data processors were advised that if there were surprising results in data, for example an increase of women on boards, or as sex offenders, then the researchers should look into why this is, and consider the possibility that it was a result of self id data collection.

The EHRC annotated the draft saying this was an offensive example that suggested trans women were sex offenders.

Why are they so thick and dishonest? It simply suggests that male ppl are more likely to be sex offenders. Which is true. They would rather have misleading data on sex offences.

This is the kind of query people take to More or Less and it's a very important statistic to understand.

Either there is a significant and worrying change in female behaviour in perpertrating sexual harm against children, or male born people are being included in the category if women and skewing the data. Either option needs to be fully understood as part of the fight against this type of crime. How can resources, prevention, detection etc all be properly targeted if we have no grasp of what's actually going on?

FWIW, I found their investigation into the numbers of periods women have fascinating!

I would try More or Less. There is a sea change going on at the BBC, even if the tide isn't fully in yet. They could talk to Professor Alice Sullivan from UCL who was involved in the fight to get the ONS to collect data on sex in the census earlier this year, not just gender. She was very vocal and articulate on why accuracy on this kind of data matters.

fullfact.org/health/young-trans-people/

[quote Mumteedum]@BloodinGutters you make an important point. I'm sorry to hear what you went through[/quote]
Ty.

Wish I hadn’t had the typos there!

It’s a real problem from a safeguarding POV from so many reasons.

But as someone who grew up terrorised by what seemed to me an all powerful mother, who fucked with my head in so many ways not just this one, my fear of her still remains completely. Yet I’m not the least bit scared by other women in single sex spaces. But I am by men.

I’m well aware women very very rarely do this and that men do and that they have a very different physical strength to women.

It’s not at all the same thing from a safeguarding perspective, even for someone whose been victim of a female predator.

@BloodinGutters you make an important point. I'm sorry to hear what you went through

As someone whose mother handed her out to be raped by her many boyfriends, it really makes me angry that they’d fuck up stats like this.

There are different issues that go with being victimised by a woman. If these is dramatically increasing we need to know and we need specific support in place for that. Because there’s very little outside of survivors first hand accounts to help.

If this is male ‘women’ doing this then how ducking dare they disregard my trauma this way.

The ‘women do this to’ stings so much from the POV of the a victim of this very rare reality.

Full fact have also not gone near this topic so far as I know. They tend to look at news, so maybe not current enough, but you could ask?

I just wish women would stop raping other women with their penis'...

The refusal to collect decent stats- sex and gender- on anything at all is a big sign that none of this is about actually helping trans people.

As it removes the ability to analyse any data by trans status and understand better about where live, how old, what issues etc etc etc

Fair play for Women looked into the claim that there has been a dramatic increase in women sexually abusing children over the last couple of years.

The fact is that we can’t know whats happening, as the recorded statistics are not clear about sex. It may just reflect the increase in male child abusers and rapists claiming to be female.

fairplayforwomen.com/sex_data_wrong/

Don't bother with More or Less. Even though I'm a fan of the programme it's clear they're going to avoid this like the plague until the majority of the BBC has started to re-engage with proper journalism.

Well done OP