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Feminism: Sex and gender discussions

5% of participants in women's prison research were trans - Lancet journal refuses to publish letter questioning statistics

36 replies

InvisibleDragon · 27/08/2021 11:27

Saw this thread on Twitter and am so upset:
twitter.com/JoPhoenix1/status/1430843096925970436?s=19

The precis is that:

  • The Lancet published this paper on the relationship between head injury and violent crime in women in the Scottish prison service
www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(21)00082-1/fulltext
  • According to the paper's methods section, 5 of the 109 female prisoners who took part in the study identified as trans women (about 5%)
Of the 355 women incarcerated in the four prisons we recruited from, 109 (31%) expressed an interest in being part of the study and were seen by researchers, and all were deemed eligible to take part. Five of these individuals identified as transgender women.
  • Jo Phoenix and some other researchers tried to submit a letter pointing out the methodological flaw that sex-based male and female offending patterns are very different, so having 5% of participants from the other sex class might affect the results
  • The Lancet editorial team initially agreed to publish the letter, then retracted, saying that the "consensus view" of the editorial team was that "the numbers involved were not thought likely to have influenced the outcome of the study as a whole".

What fresh hell is this??

So 5% of participants in a study on female prisoners were trans women (biologically male). Is that representative of the female prison estate as a whole? It's certainly interesting that whilst less than 1% of the UK population identify as trans, they make up 5% of a population of female prisoners with a conviction for a violent offence.

But I just feel so speechless that such a highly regarded medical research journal has just utterly silenced discussion about the meaning of these statistics. This stuff matters. If we can't name biological reality in actual scientific research, none of the research has meaning. The single sentence from the article quoted above is the only mention in the whole article that some of the women in the study were trans. It's not mentioned in the discussion, the limitations, anywhere. How can we do science if everything we write is skewed by this ideology?

This has completely shattered me this morning. I'm actually crying. This is cargo cult science. It looks superficially cotrect, but the meaning is gone.

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Zandathepanda · 27/08/2021 13:49

Yes ‘unlikely’ suggests they haven’t asked to look at data without the males in it. It’s already biased as only those that expressed an interest are used. I wouldn’t have been able to use it for my MSc - though it would have made a good example for criticism of research limitations.

InvisibleDragon · 27/08/2021 13:33

Zanda
It just makes the research nonsense. 5% is a small amount but might tip a particular result into being statistically significant. Presumably they have looked at the data again with or without the 5% to see if it made any difference to the results

If they've done the analysis, they don't report it in the paper. That part I quoted is the only reference to the trans participants in the whole paper.

If they had reported that analysis, or even mentioned it as a possible limitation in the study, I would have no issue. But to just gloss over this as if it doesn't matter is nonsense.

In the reply rejecting the letter they said that it was "unlikely" to affect the results. Which is as good as saying that they don't know.

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MrsOvertonsWindow · 27/08/2021 13:22

Just shows the power of the ideology when they are able to censor (or make people self censor) allegedly qualified scientists, doctors from producing factually accurate research.

Just another example of how #nodebate works in the face of flat earthism. The claim that men magically transform into real women can only be substantiated if it gets no scrutiny whatsoever and the importance of accurate medical research for mere women is now of no importance. Hmm

theemperorhasnoclothes · 27/08/2021 12:58

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted as it quotes a deleted post.

NecessaryScene · 27/08/2021 12:53

want to hear*

(sigh)

NecessaryScene · 27/08/2021 12:53

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Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk guidelines.

theemperorhasnoclothes · 27/08/2021 12:52

(In detail with specific analysis and explained clearly how the data looks with the 5% biological male and without - not a hand waving 'we don't think women are important nor any women's concerns so go away')

theemperorhasnoclothes · 27/08/2021 12:50

@Zandathepanda

It just makes the research nonsense. 5% is a small amount but might tip a particular result into being statistically significant. Presumably they have looked at the data again with or without the 5% to see if it made any difference to the results.
I'm at the point honestly where I just assume that if they're trying to shut down normal debate about data and the ways in which the methodology could be flawed in areas like this, then they have done this analysis and it's not good for the TRA side of the debate.

If the 5% biologically male made no difference to the results they'd be perfectly willing to discuss that.

Zandathepanda · 27/08/2021 12:46

It just makes the research nonsense. 5% is a small amount but might tip a particular result into being statistically significant. Presumably they have looked at the data again with or without the 5% to see if it made any difference to the results.

NecessaryScene · 27/08/2021 11:51

Ah, well, if you have a "consensus view", no point actually breaking down the data to investigate.

Might disrupt the lovely consensus.

InvisibleDragon · 27/08/2021 11:45

Incidentally, this essay by Richard Feynman on scientific integrity and "not fooling ourselves" is where I got the concept of cargo cult science from:
calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm

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