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Feminism: Sex and gender discussions

NICE Evidence Review for Use of Puberty Blockers for GD - Now Released

192 replies

IDontOnlyLikeJazzFunk · 31/03/2021 14:09

now released. NC. The full link is below, this is the summary. It's not looking good.

Discussion
A key limitation to identifying the effectiveness and safety of GnRH analogues for children and adolescents with gender dysphoria is the lack of reliable comparative studies. The lack of clear, expected outcomes from treatment with a GnRH analogue (the purpose of which is to suppress secondary sexual characteristics which may cause distress from unwanted pubertal changes) also makes interpreting the evidence difficult.

The studies included in this evidence review are all small, uncontrolled observational studies, which are subject to bias and confounding, and all the results are of very low certainty using modified GRADE. They all reported physical and mental health comorbidities and concomitant treatments very poorly. All the studies are from a limited number of, mainly European, care facilities. They are described as either tertiary referral or expert services but the low number of services providing such care and publishing evidence may bias the results towards the outcomes in these services only and limit extrapolation.

Many of the studies did not report statistical significance or confidence intervals. Changes in outcome scores for clinical effectiveness and bone density were assessed with regards to statistical significance. However, there is relatively little interpretation of whether the changes in outcomes are clinically meaningful.
In the observational, retrospective studies providing evidence on bone density, participants acted as their own controls and change in bone density was determined between starting GnRH analogues and follow up. Observational studies such as these can only show an association with GnRH analogues and bone density; they cannot show that GnRH analogues caused any differences in bone density seen. Because there was no comparator group and participants acted as their own controls, it is not known whether the findings are associated with GnRH analogues or due to changes over time.

Conclusion
The results of the studies that reported impact on the critical outcomes of gender dysphoria and mental health (depression, anger and anxiety), and the important outcomes of body image and psychosocial impact (global and psychosocial functioning), in children and adolescents with gender dysphoria are of very low certainty using modified GRADE. They suggest little change with GnRH analogues from baseline to follow-up.

Studies that found differences in outcomes could represent changes that are either of questionable clinical value, or the studies themselves are not reliable and changes could be due to confounding, bias or chance. It is plausible, however, that a lack of difference in scores from baseline to follow-up is the effect of GnRH analogues in children and adolescents with gender dysphoria, in whom the development of secondary sexual characteristics might be expected to be associated with an increased impact on gender dysphoria, depression, anxiety, anger and distress over time without treatment. The study by de Vries et al. 2011 reported statistically significant reductions in the Child Behaviour Checklist (CBCL) and Youth Self-Report (YSR) scores from baseline to follow up, which include measures of distress. As the aim of GnRH analogues is to reduce distress caused by the development of secondary sexual characteristics, this may be an important finding.

However, as the studies all lack appropriate controls who were not receiving GnRH analogues, any positive changes could be a regression to mean.

The results of the studies that reported bone density outcomes suggest that GnRH analogues may reduce the expected increase in bone density (which is expected during puberty). However, as the studies themselves are not reliable, the results could be due to confounding, bias or chance. While controlled trials may not be possible, comparative studies are needed to understand this association and whether the effects of GnRH analogues on bone density are seen after they are stopped. All the studies that reported safety outcomes provided very low certainty evidence.

No cost-effectiveness evidence was found to determine whether or not GnRH analogues are cost-effective for children and adolescents with gender dysphoria.

The results of the studies that reported outcomes for subgroups of children and adolescents with gender dysphoria, suggest there may be differences between sex assigned at birth males (transfemales) and sex assigned at birth females (transmales).

arms.nice.org.uk/resources/hub/1070905/attachment

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vivariumvivariumsvivaria · 01/04/2021 13:02

WPATH is effectively a patient lobby group. Quite why they have been given so much credence by psychiatrists, medics and scientists is a total mystery to me. No other patient group has achieved this.

EmbarrassingAdmissions · 01/04/2021 12:50

I have been in a trial where 'watchful waiting' was one of the arms of the trial; it was ethical because there was uncertainty over whether either of the treatments were actually better than watchful waiting.

Agreed.

There are particular form of breast disorder and several haematological conditions where "watchful waiting" is a management option.
In haematology, it can be very important not to jump too soon for some conditions because some of them never manifest, or take up to 20 years to do it. And for those who do progress within a shorter time period, it's important not to expose patients to excess associated toxicities too early in the strategic treatment pathway.

R0wantrees · 01/04/2021 12:47

BBC report says a control group would be difficult because you couldn't withhold treatment from one group.

The BBC article says, " Some argue that carrying out a controlled trial - which would provide better quality evidence - might be difficult because of the potential impact on mental health if treatment is withheld in one group."
Its unfortunate that BBC does not identify who are those making such an argument as clarity is important.

ANewCreation · 01/04/2021 12:42

All roads lead to WPATH but its membership criteria show it is not a medical body, per se which is why it is surprising how much sway it holds. Maybe we could get a group discount...

"Full professional membership is available to professionals working in disciplines such as medicine, psychology, law, social work, counseling, psychotherapy, nursing, family studies, sociology, anthropology, speech and voice therapy and sexology.

Full membership costs $225 (US) per year, and carries voting privileges within the Association."

wpath.org/MembershipInfo

Tibtom · 01/04/2021 12:37

BBC report says a control group would be difficult because you couldn't withhold treatment from one group. That would only be true if the treatment was know to be successful. I have been in a trial where 'watchful waiting' was one of the arms of the trial; it was ethical because there was uncertainty over whether either of the treatments were actually better than watchful waiting.

What is truely unethical here is the way this treatment has been pushed as a cure, and death by suicide the inevitable consequence of withholding, by the worst sort of snakeoil salesmen.

AnyOldPrion · 01/04/2021 12:33

@NotBadConsidering

You can’t placebo puberty blockers because puberty will continue unabated. You can do control group vs puberty blockers group but this possibility has been dismissed as “unethical” because of the “distress” it may cause to not give puberty blockers.

But now we have historical controls: the recent publication of a study that shows if you leave boys alone only a small percentage of them persist.

So now the “unethical” arm of a control group vs puberty blocker group is the puberty blocker group.

There needs to be an immediate moratorium on puberty blockers for moral and ethical reasons, not just legal rulings.

The irony in all this is that back near the beginning, it would have been a wholly sensible idea to create a randomised study with one group on puberty blockers and the other watchful waiting, or whatever was the accepted gold standard at the time. Had that been done, we would have known by now whether puberty blockers are better or worse than the alternative.

It is no longer possible to do such a study, not because watchful waiting would be in any way unethical (compared with PBs it’s the safer option) but because the hype created around PBs mean that they could no longer sell it to parents or rely on children not to convince their parents to go private if they were allocated to the watchful waiting group.

The long term upshot, I suspect, is that puberty blockers will eventually be banned, having never been rationally trialled.

R0wantrees · 01/04/2021 12:18

WPATH = Jess Bradley the flasher am I right?

Jess Bradley played a key role in NUS, Action For Trans Health and TELI.

WPATH was originally known as 'Harry Benjamin International Gender Dysphoria Association' The first version of the Standards of Care were published in 1979.
Stephen Whittle (Press For Change founding member) was president 2007–2009
www.wpath.org/about/history

There is some interesting background to Benjamin here:
stoptransingkids.wordpress.com/2020/06/02/who-was-harry-benjamin/

WarriorN · 01/04/2021 12:07

Jess Bradley - a government advisor on women's rights suspended by NUS over indecent blog. Part iii www.mumsnet.com/Talk/womens_rights/3325623-Jess-Bradley-a-government-advisor-on-womens-rights-suspended-by-NUS-over-indecent-blog-Part-iii

Previous threads

Sexnotgender · 01/04/2021 12:06

This is shocking (but not surprising).

Are any major news outlets covering this?

GNCQ · 01/04/2021 11:46

WPATH = Jess Bradley the flasher am I right?

EmbarrassingAdmissions · 01/04/2021 11:46

These kids haven't just disappeared into thin air.

What reasons are there for not engaging past discharge?

I don't know the set-up at GIDS - is it the usual annoying fumble that takes places when paediatric hands-off to adult services? (Affects a wide range of conditions including cancer services.)

Mumofgirlswholiketoplaywithmud · 01/04/2021 11:38

@rogdmum

Now the BBC need to have a word with their cbeebies / CBBC department where it was sold as an effective safe pause button to the kids watching.
BeanieSue · 01/04/2021 11:36

I just had a look at the BMJ by Carmicheal et al. that @IDontOnlyLikeJazzFunk links to. Here an exerpt:
"Young people experienced little change in psychological functioning across the study. We found no differences between baseline and later outcomes for overall psychological distress as rated by parents and young people, nor for self-harm. Outcomes that were not formally tested also showed little change."
As far as I can tell there was no change across a range of indicators including the Utrecht gender dysphoria score. Having said that there aren't many participants in the study - 44 at the beginning and only 14 followed up at 36 Months. Does any one know of studies that follows patients that aren't given puberty blockers?

RedToothBrush · 01/04/2021 11:33

@IDontOnlyLikeJazzFunk

Yes, of course, or it wouldn't be a well-constructed survey. Based on this NICE document, the onus is on those who seek to use the treatment to demonstrate its efficacy.

That would be a sensible move. It is unfortunate to say the least that such poor data and analysis was carried out with the children that have been prescribed this medication so far. That is an enormous missed opportunity.

The Tavistock have had six years of carrying out unevidenced experimental treatment on children. They have totally squandered that time and the (I believe) £1.3 million that they were given to conduct a study to provide some evidence to back up what they were doing.

Where does that leave the whole project? Is it remotely ethical to start a new cohort of children on this treatment in order to study them properly?

How many children should they be allowed to experiment on?

Do they have any degree of competence in research or safeguarding? Apparently not.

Quite.

Though you'd have thought that they would know who they had treated in the past still.

And you'd also be asking big questions about a) why they couldn't be traced b) there is a low take up on answering questions about follow up.

These kids haven't just disappeared into thin air.

What reasons are there for not engaging past discharge? The omerta itself should set alarm bells. I would imagine this isnt an issue for following up outcomes for other health conditions. People generally want to make the experience of having significant health problems easier to deal with for others behind them.

IDontOnlyLikeJazzFunk · 01/04/2021 11:27

Yes, of course, or it wouldn't be a well-constructed survey. Based on this NICE document, the onus is on those who seek to use the treatment to demonstrate its efficacy.

That would be a sensible move. It is unfortunate to say the least that such poor data and analysis was carried out with the children that have been prescribed this medication so far. That is an enormous missed opportunity.

The Tavistock have had six years of carrying out unevidenced experimental treatment on children. They have totally squandered that time and the (I believe) £1.3 million that they were given to conduct a study to provide some evidence to back up what they were doing.

Where does that leave the whole project? Is it remotely ethical to start a new cohort of children on this treatment in order to study them properly?

How many children should they be allowed to experiment on?

Do they have any degree of competence in research or safeguarding? Apparently not.

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RedToothBrush · 01/04/2021 11:24

Is it ethical to base treatment on 'gut feel'?? In my book that is absolutely beyond the pale and I think the medical negligence suits that are inevitable will reflect that.

Yes.

In a word.

RedToothBrush · 01/04/2021 11:20

You do not need people working against research (and the big tragedy here is that happens from BOTH sides in this case)

This is true of ideology in medicine as a rule.

What makes this NICE document slightly different and I'd argue isn't about both sides at all, is that NICE are saying there just isn't evidence either way. There's nothing. Its a vacuum. The document repeatedly says 'no evidence'.

This is significant and important to note.

We know that there is no follow up being done, once drugs have been used. The onus once drugs have been administered is to prove its doing no harm and is doing what its supposed to. You have to justify your recommended treatment after the fact. The dynamic here is it shouldnt be for not for anti-medicalisation campaigners and researchers to be raising questions about this absence of data. The default is this is the very minimum level of information that should be rigoursly being kept and examine to remove all ability to raise question marks.

Also noting here that the care pathway recommended by the Tavi seems to be is positive affirmation as the default. Rather than more patient / long term watchful waiting approach which is being frowned on by the most vocal lobby groups. Again bias already built in at an institutional level on a complete lack of evidence and follow up.

If you have given out the drugs you have already demonstrated that you believe it works, therefore you have the power in the dynamic and the responsibility to show you are correct. Anti-blocker and hormone groups do not have this power, moral responsibility and do no harm ethical issue at this point. It is the absence of a follow-up up which tilts the issue as being fundamentally one sided and controlled by that side. This is backed up by the fact organised campaigns to block any kind of follow-up research (theoretically likely to be biased in the other way or not) have been pretty much universally successful. NICE's very purpose is to look at all studies in an area of medicine and to assess their quality / bias and whether the study is fundamentally flawed. Those advocating drugs will be aware of this but aren't prepared to trust that medical bodies will actively look out for questionable studies with a nefarious agenda in ideologically sensitive areas of medicine.

If this is about 'both sides' ideological bias then this still doesn't explain the ethical black hole which is the absence of the Tavistock follow up data.

Normally I would argue the toss about both sides on such ideologically sensitive medical issues. On this one i cant because of the balance of power and institutional level failings on basic safeguarding protocol. Its indefensible.

OldCrone · 01/04/2021 11:15

@Manderleyagain

Physically transitioned kids and young people are essential as political posterchildren for a movement. And one reason for that is that the claimed metaphysics (or whatever the right word is) that underpin all this require it. The late transitioners who claim "I have always been a woman. When I was a kid everyone thought I was a boy but I knew I was a girl" require the existence of contemporary boys who are "really" girls and vice versa.
TRAs used to be quite open about recruiting children to 'demystify' and 'take the sex right out of the trans experience.'

twitter.com/Transgendertrd/status/1013774040509673478

Unfortunately, the video linked in this tweet is no longer available.

NICE Evidence Review for Use of Puberty Blockers for GD - Now Released
yourhairiswinterfire · 01/04/2021 11:13

A father in Canada was put in prison partly because he didn't want his child to have the csh treatment.

A child in Australia was taken away from their parents for similar reasons.

Since the High Court ruled children can't consent, we had the lobby groups/organisations/activists saying parents know best and the decision should be down to them.

Apart from when parents refuse, they mean. Because if they really believe parents do know best, they wouldn't be trying to criminalise parents who are rightly cautious.

NotBadConsidering · 01/04/2021 11:12

You can’t placebo puberty blockers because puberty will continue unabated. You can do control group vs puberty blockers group but this possibility has been dismissed as “unethical” because of the “distress” it may cause to not give puberty blockers.

But now we have historical controls: the recent publication of a study that shows if you leave boys alone only a small percentage of them persist.

So now the “unethical” arm of a control group vs puberty blocker group is the puberty blocker group.

There needs to be an immediate moratorium on puberty blockers for moral and ethical reasons, not just legal rulings.

rogdmum · 01/04/2021 11:11

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56601386

Coverage by the BBC

TheMostBeautifulDogInTheWorld · 01/04/2021 11:11

When I say "that's fine", I mean (in case it wasn't obvious) that of course parents can and should so consent where it's necessary! I didn't mean in this particular context.

If giving these drugs to under-18s is to be stopped, it's the problems of the drugs themselves that will stop it, not - or not only - questions of consent. I think that's what the parts of the GLP ruling that talk about whether these drugs are a "special case" was looking towards.

All of these court cases and reviews are just steps sadly - we are a way yet from any firm set of rules being established. (And even when they are there will be the Mad Webberleys of this world to deal with).

IDontOnlyLikeJazzFunk · 01/04/2021 11:10

@MishyJDI

The problem as noted in the report is easy to see: It would be unethical to give trans identifying kids a placebo, so there is not peer group to review against. So back to gut feel and individual patient response, which from all I have read, the detransition rate is very low.
Given the permanent and damaging effect to health of this medication, how many cases of misdiagnosis would you find acceptable?

Each detransitioner who has been through the medical process and possibly the surgery is a product of misdiagnosis.

Do you think it is ethical and wise to apply a 'treatment' to children that has known permanent and damaging effects and no discernible long term benefits?

Is it ethical to base treatment on 'gut feel'?? In my book that is absolutely beyond the pale and I think the medical negligence suits that are inevitable will reflect that.

There is anecdotal evidence of many many detransitioners. Given the extremely poor standard of evidence being used to justify the treatment itself I am not surprised there is no actual research into their failures - no one involved in this seems to be deploying any ethical considerations.

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