Covid-19 and purity spirals

Boris has certainly secured his 'Legacy'

I don't think the government will sacrifice the economy long term, and as there is no solution pending, the restrictions will be lifted, and come what may.

And a lot of people are going to die. The US will be worse

R0wantrees I read that article last week, and agree that it's bang on.

We have this unprecedented (inter)national grief to deal with, and people (understandably) don't know how to cope.

I liked the interview with George Alagiah where he said that having had to to deal with recent cancer treatment, it had helped him to accept the current situation more quickly.

I feel like that too. A few years ago I would have wailed "why me?". Now it's "why not me"?

I don't think though, that the journey to acceptance can be forced or hurried, which leads me to think that the public castigation and shaming is going to go on for a good while yet.

Explain to me then how you reach acceptance when acceptance needs to be - I can't go outside, I can't see my children, I can't see my parents, I can't see my friends, I can't work, I can't access medical treatment necessary to ease my symptoms or stop my health from deteriorating.

What form does acceptance take in this instance?

I feel that I went through the anger and denial stage really early

I found this article interesting as it maps current feelings with grief patterns:

(extract)
"Understanding the stages of grief is a start. But whenever I talk about the stages of grief, I have to remind people that the stages aren’t linear and may not happen in this order. It’s not a map but it provides some scaffolding for this unknown world. There’s denial, which we saw a lot of early on: This virus won’t affect us. There’s anger: You’re making me stay home and taking away my activities. There’s bargaining: Okay, if I social distance for two weeks everything will be better, right? There’s sadness: I don’t know when this will end. And finally there’s acceptance. This is happening; I have to figure out how to proceed.

Acceptance, as you might imagine, is where the power lies. We find control in acceptance. I can wash my hands. I can keep a safe distance. I can learn how to work virtually." (continues)
hbr.org/2020/03/that-discomfort-youre-feeling-is-grief

You are pinning your hopes on a non-specified treatment that hasn’t been identified or studied or tested and as such is wishful thinking.

No I'm not. You're assuming things about me with zero basis. I said that a treatment is more likely before any vaccine and I think that's true. People believing that a vaccine is 12 - 18 months away are the ones indulging in magical thinking. Me thinking a drug treatment is possible isn't me pinning my hopes on it. I think this will be a public health management issue that will require curtailment of some civil liberties, making COVID19 notifiable and possibly enforcing quarantine in order to control it.

MilesJuppIsMyBitch

It's easy for you to say though isn't it because you've got your family with you. Would you be quite so resigned if they insisted that you had to.live apart from your children? I doubt it. What kind of plan would you suggest I make? To not see my children for years? No more Christmases with them? Miss my daughter's graduation? Not see my parents again? I won't do that.

If you are the poster who wasn’t buying hair-due because it took an extra second to get from the shelves, maybe treat yourself to that. Or a nice non-alcoholic drink.

Oh right, yep. That'll make up for me not seeing my children - dyeing my hair. Of course. How silly of me. Or maybe have a nice non alcoholic drink - hmm. No of any that contain neither sugar nor sweeteners? Maybe water? Imagine, if I both dye my hair and have a glass of water I probably being miss my children or my parents.

Tell me, if they separated you from your children would dyeing your hair make that ok?

Anyway, I listened to the purity-spirals documentary, and agree that what is happening now has many parallels.

If my life, for the next year, is to live cloistered indoors isolated from family and friends then there is no point in being alive

Sorry Hooves, I replied above before I read this and I would have been less direct.

There’s nothing wrong with hoping for the best outcome but why not plan for the worst as well? Loosen some of your self-imposed restrictions, whilst staying within the government’s guidelines. If you are the poster who wasn’t buying hair-due because it took an extra second to get from the shelves, maybe treat yourself to that. Or a nice non-alcoholic drink.

I really do sympathise Hooves. I feel lucky at the moment, because I live with my DH and DCs, and we're all in a position to be able to shield together.

I don't think that is likely to be the case for a year or more, so have already decided that (as long as I stay well) I will homeschool them.

This, frankly, will be fucking awful, as they won't be able to see their friends or lead a normal life.

The other option, though, is to not be able to see me for a year. I will not put that choice onto them, so I am choosing.

It is shit, but surely it's better to try to accept reality then make a plan, than to keep shouting at the world that they're killing people by buying wine.

I'm sorry for you, but I also think you're bonkers.

South Korea didn't just test that first woman and her contacts. They are continuing to do it because the spread continues. It wasn't a one off. It continues and they have successfully flattened the curve and are maintaining it but the infection has t disappeared, they are just successfully managing it.

And she wasn’t the first woman, I was just using her as an example of how thorough the early testing was.

If they release lockdown, with no measures in place, we will be back right here in two months time. Then what? The NHS has stopped, other than to treat Covid and immediately life threatening conditions nothing else is being addressed, schools have stopped, the economy is non existent. They can't have that going on for a few years. Technology will be the answer.

You are pinning your hopes on a non-specified treatment that hasn’t been identified or studied or tested and as such is wishful thinking.

You are also hoping that U.K. testing rates will somehow magically ramp up leading to the kind of public health response as engendered from South Korea and Singapore but that’s also wishful thinking. I’ve mentioned the discrepancy between the official numbers of infected versus the likely ones and other posters have pointed out that even that is unlikely an underestimate. The numbers are too high now.

The UK, Europe and the US cannot use lockdown as a way of managing this. That is impossible. This will be on going until there is a vaccine - so for years. They can't put us into full lockdown every two months and so another way of doing this has to be found.

Years of circulating coronavirus with intermittent peaks may not be unrealistic. I agree with statistically that on/off lockdowns with vulnerable people remaining in isolation may need to occur.

While there’s nothing wrong with hoping for a miracle treatment, or the disease curves to suddenly look like those of other countries (whose approaches have been completely different) they’re both unrealistic outcomes.

It all seems to be boiling down to They can't put us into full lockdown every two months and so another way of doing this has to be found.

There might not be another way for countries with high levels of community spread, open borders and ongoing community movement.

Hopefully there won’t be a second or third peak, hopefully there will be an early vaccine or amazing new therapy but there’s never been a COVID-19 pandemic before. It could well be shitty for a long time yet, so it’s reasonable to make mental preparations for that as well.

Hooves I think you have found your limit. Everyone has one.

There is no way that I can live like this, shielded, for a year. No way.

I want to see my children, go to my daughter's graduation, see my parents, go to work, go outside, exercise, have the medical treatment that I need.

If my life, for the next year, is to live cloistered indoors isolated from family and friends then there is no point in being alive

"For a start off, research is coming out now showing that two metres may well be insufficient and that coughing and sneezing propel the virus much much further than two metres."

This was done in a lab, not a real-life situation.

Interesting thread, thanks.

As someone in the shielding group with suspected CV19, I agree that it seems likely that people like me will probably have to lead very limited lives for about a year - nothing else makes any sense. I know it sounds gloomy, but in my personal circumstances I would consider that a win. (I'm feeling much better, if it's of any comfort to any fellow shieldies out there).

Also, it's been really illuminating reading all your responses to the... erm... angrier posters, as it's helped me to clarify my feelings on the social media rants I see daily. I know I shouldn't look, but it's like picking a scab.

I feel that I went through the anger and denial stage really early, so I'm sitting in my smug bubble of acceptance watching everyone howl with rage. I sympathise, but I do hope everyone stops soon.

I read a guardian headline today saying that in Europe the elderly may have to prepare for a year of self-isolation. Presumably that includes other ultra-vulnerable people as well.

This doesn't seem unrealistic tbh. This started here from a fairly small number of people bringing infection in from other countries. For contract tracing and testing to keep infection ultra low we would need the number of cases both in the community and coming in to be at that sort of level or lower - and the infected people to start with will be much harder to identify. Especially if the Icelandic stats are in the correct region (be interesting to see the Oxford one)

Even with an r0 thought to be below 1 during lockdown it would take a long time to get the levels this low. The relatively long incubation period doesn't help from that perspective.

nolongersurprised

South Korea didn't just test that first woman and her contacts. They are continuing to do it because the spread continues. It wasn't a one off. It continues and they have successfully flattened the curve and are maintaining it but the infection has t disappeared, they are just successfully managing it.

And yes, once we have reduced the rate of infection down to a suitable level they can implement it here. As I said, we had a chance on the way up and there will be the same chance on the way down.

The UK, Europe and the US cannot use lockdown as a way of managing this. That is impossible. This will be on going until there is a vaccine - so for years. They can't put us into full lockdown every two months and so another way of doing this has to be found.

South Korea and Singapore's way is looking like the way to manage the curve whilst allowing the economy to run.

If they release lockdown, with no measures in place, we will be back right here in two months time. Then what? The NHS has stopped, other than to treat Covid and immediately life threatening conditions nothing else is being addressed, schools have stopped, the economy is non existent. They can't have that going on for a few years. Technology will be the answer.

There aren’t any rapid antibody tests that work

They’re either out or very close where I work in Australia.

They did. They did this for weeks until it became apparent that it was no longer effective.

Was that before or after they’d pursued the “let’s just wait for herd immunity” plan? Because if it was after it was too late. And if they were testing well, at least for a while, why is the U.K. testing per capita rate still so poor?

not enough rapid antibody tests

There aren’t any rapid antibody tests that work

They did drive through testing.

They have had this in the UK for weeks

You say they will have to implement these measures of testing, contact tracing and quarantine but they didn’t

They did. They did this for weeks until it became apparent that it was no longer effective.

Combined with at least some ongoing social distancing, probably on/off lockdowns (possibly regionally where cases exceed local capacity), ongoing household isolation, probably sustained shielding of the ultra vulnerable too.

I read a guardian headline today saying that in Europe the elderly may have to prepare for a year of self-isolation. Presumably that includes other ultra-vulnerable people as well. Things won’t be back to normal for a long time.

There was a random testing study done in Iceland which found that half of those testing positing were asymptomatic.

Yes, I think there is a similar study starting here? In Oxford?

The only way the UK could now do what South Korea did is if someone invented a time machine.

I understand perfectly well. Seeing as you understand it much better do explain how they can both let the infection spread but also keep the numbers below what the NHS can cope with, without resorting to the severe measures we are currently facing?

You mean like “flattening the curve”? The severe measures need to continue. For longer than you’d like. This is because the initial response was delayed and poor, not because people in rural areas are going for 2 walks a week.

Because they will have to implement measures currently being used in the countries that are doing extremely well with containing this.

Let me walk you through this. Counties that did well tested early and tested everyone. Through testing and contact tracing and quarantine they contained the spread In South Korea they identified the “super spreader” woman who infected lots of people (was it 160? Can’t remember). They tested everyone she’d been in contact with. They did drive through testing.

It’s too late for this in the U.K. There are too many cases, it’s uncontained, your testing rates per capita are low (even lower than the US who have been criticised for their low number) and there is an underestimate of active cases.

You say they will have to implement these measures of testing, contact tracing and quarantine but they didn’t, they aren’t testing enough even now. The numbers infected are huge now, likely at least 1/2 million. Do your public health workers know exactly where the clusters are? Do they know who to test when this (fantasy) wide scale testing you’re hoping for suddenly starts? Or will they test every single person, assuming a testing capacity that doesn’t exist?

Aside from the public health work force required to implement this there won’t be the numbers of tests required and not enough rapid antibody tests. It’s too late, the coronavirus genie is out of the bottle.

I know it’s shit.

I think the goal of any track and trace program is going to be keeping the numbers below what the NHS can cope with - not achieving and sustaining extremely low numbers of cases. Combined with at least some ongoing social distancing, probably on/off lockdowns (possibly regionally where cases exceed local capacity), ongoing household isolation, probably sustained shielding of the ultra vulnerable too.

There was a random testing study done in Iceland which found that half of those testing positing were asymptomatic. We're only currently testing those who are sick enough to need hospitalisation (a friend was taken to hospital and not kept in, told it was almost certainly C19, but even she wasn't tested). The number of real cases is vastly in excess of the quoted numbers. As a result, and combined with the number of people who need to still be out and about working even now, we're not going to get down to the very low rates that were achieved by thos countries who went hard core on track and trace when they only had a handful.

I don’t think you really understand. The virus is not going to stop infecting people just because you don’t want it to and because current life is untenable.

I understand perfectly well. Seeing as you understand it much better do explain how they can both let the infection spread but also keep the numbers below what the NHS can cope with, without resorting to the severe measures we are currently facing?

Why are you so confident that all of the contacts will be picked up, given the stats suggest that only about 1/6th of the cases have been?

Because they will have to implement measures currently being used in the countries that are doing extremely well with containing this.

You are suggesting that the answer is herd immunity - how? How will they prevent the NHS from getting overwhelmed whilst we achieve herd immunity? By locking us down like this repeatedly? Spending billions and billions every few months? Really?

I don’t think you really understand. The virus is not going to stop infecting people just because you don’t want it to and because current life is untenable. Active infections will only reduce either when there is a vaccine or most people are immune. It’s not a question of “letting” or not “letting” the virus infect people, it’s just doing its thing. The numbers in the U.K. are unstoppable especially given some people’s daily movements (work) and people coming into the country.

From what I've been reading, yes they are planning for it which is why I think they are refusing to be drawn on exit plans in the press conference.

You have a lot of faith in your government which severely fucked up the initial response.

You say they are planning for widespread community testing. At present there are supposedly 68772 people with active infections in the U.K., but the death rate is too high by a factor of at least six so current number of the actively infected is more like 430 000. If every infected person has 3 household contacts and does nothing else that’s 1.3 million people at minimum who should be tested in the first instance. where are these tests?

Why are you so confident that all of the contacts will be picked up, given the stats suggest that only about 1/6th of the cases have been?

Given the sheer scope of these numbers is IS magical thinking to insist that people reaching for wine in their shopping is the reason the country can’t re open.