Covid-19 and purity spirals

Indeed. Don't get me wrong, I'm not taking my eye off what TRAs are up to, but there are a great many things that can wait until after we figure out how to get the pandemic under control.

It won't be 18 million not going to work - it will likely be the most severe.
Of that 18 million:
-approximately 8 million are over 70 (so the vast majority are not going to be working anyway...yes exceptions exist)
-some will be children or students
-some will not routinely work (especially at the most severe end of the spectrum)
-a proportion will be able to work from home
-some will already have had it
-some will be in jobs which are fairly low risk
-we'll probably get better data which will narrow those categories down further.

The number normally working who won't be able to isn't even close to 18 million.

I agree re brexit and terf-ness MilesJupp. It seems light relief by comparison!

I doubt that there any political winners in this now. Harder job holding onto trust in democracy.

Trump was strongly hinting at one point that he would like to force Americans back to work after Easter, and has had to back off (certain states would in any case have told him as politely as possible to go fuck himself if he hasn't backed off, and those are the states that drive the American economy anyway). Governments do of course have ways to not technically force but economically pressure people back to work by cutting Covid related funding and so on, but doing so might be political suicide in any country that actually elects its leaders.

Thank you R0wantrees and ProdigalKitten

The fear I've felt has been visceral, but I continue to find it extraordinary how us humans can adapt to circumstance. I can feel it happening now, but as you say, this adaptation will then make it harder to return to normal.

I miss Brexit and being called a t*rf.

@StatisticallyChallenged Yes I agree many people will be forced to go back to work. I am not and neither are my kids going back to school until it is safe to do so. DP will have to go back to work unfortunately but sees very few people at work. I can take the hit if I lose my job.
And if there is a second wave of lots of people dying after they are forced to go back to work, there will be an outcry.

And the feasibility of testing everyone, or a high percentage of people, will vary from one country to another based on population size, wealth, and medical infrastructure. Test everyone in Singapore? Doable. Test everyone in India? Not so much.

That's why they have to develop a way of getting back to a far more normal way of life, but with the ability to identify the infected and quarantine them.

Tricky though, if it is true that up to half of people are asymptomatic, coupled with a long incubation period. Literally no way of knowing who is infected and who isn’t

Whatever people's opinion about the interpreting of the rules, you are certainly right about the curtain twitching, OP. The term 'purity spiral' is pretty new to me, but it's a really disturbing phenomenon, and one which seems to have infiltrated all walks of life, especially on social media. It's vicious, nasty and entirely self-seeking while pretending to be for the greater good.

But your plan tests with eighteen million people not going to work at all. How do we find that? And do you not think that mass disruption to services plus thousands of people dying with no medical care won't cause civil unrest?

That's why they have to develop a way of getting back to a far more normal way of life, but with the ability to identify the infected and quarantine them.

But lots of households will have someone vulnerable within them.
None of my bloody family are going back to work or school while there is a real risk they could catch it and die

As unpleasant as it is - once the government reduce the financial support they're currently providing then many families won't have a choice here. They're currently suggesting about 10M are on furlough. Family finances are taking an absolute hammering already. Teachers are still being paid because they're working (either from home or in hubs). But once furlough is removed and once the council say that being a teacher requires being in school then many will have to go back to work. I agree with Nolonger that those who are vulnerable could be teaching the vulnerable kids remotely but I suspect this will be reserved for the most vulnerable staff. Those at the lower end of the vulnerability spectrum will probably be sent back to work.

The government cant fund this indefinitely. There isn't a magic money pot.

There is only so long people can be off work. Eventually people will start starving , and then there could be civil unrest

I don't know how long enforcement is sustainable. It largely has consent at the moment but for how long? I don't know the answer but it's not indefinate

Why do you think people don't see this, and that they're being naive?

Because I think the ones preaching acceptance are the ones who think that their lives won't be severely impacted by this. That they think the ones who have to accept aren't them.

I can't see the public accepting when their family members are just left to die at home, or when their child is being taught in a class of what 45,60? I don't believe that a lot of the "vulnerable" group don't currently work, when you look at the qualifying conditions - asthma, diabetes, high blood pressure, pregnancy. Even amongst the shielded I bet a lot of us are working.

I meant to say -
but after the government hammering home how it is only people with underlying conditions that are at risk of dying

@StatisticallyChallenged No not all will be working. But lots of households will have someone vulnerable within them.
Yes the vulnerable are not required to stay off work, but after the government hammering home how it is only people with underlying conditions that need to go back to work, how many do you think will be happy to before it is clear they are not at risk of catching it? None of my bloody family are going back to work or school while there is a real risk they could catch it and die.

Good point no longer

There will be teachers, there will be fewer and larger class sizes may be necessary - but then the reduction in available teachers may be balanced by the families who will choose to keep their children away from school.

DH and I were speculating that the ones who are vulnerable may choose to be the ones who assist children with their distance education.

The vulnerable aren't required to stay away from work, and a huge proportion of those stated figures are people who don't work generally. It's not 18 million (without checking the figures) out of the workforce.

There will be teachers, there will be fewer and larger class sizes may be necessary - but then the reduction in available teachers may be balanced by the families who will choose to keep their children away from school.

You're all busy lecturing me on acceptance, have you all accepted that you and your loved ones will have to accept not having cancer treatment, treatment for heart disease, treatment of strokes, elective surgery, rheumatology, physio, dental treatment?

Why do you think people don't see this, and that they're being naive? I fully expect that the NHS will not be returning to business as usual at the point where restrictions are being lifted. It's going to continue to be a coronavirus dominated service with other treatment being very much on the backburner. This will cost lives, but it's a horrible inevitability IMO.

Bigger class sizes? Noone us saying that it will be the same as it was

Everything is closed, but it’s less restrictive and no one gets cross about people buying wine 🍷 or 🍫 or children riding their bikes.

Although much more restricted in some ways, I should add. My local state border is closed for people not travelling for work, the country is closed for non residents and there is strictly enforced quarantine for people coming home from overseas.

DD will go back to school

Who will teach her? Currently, 1.5 million shielded and about 17 million people vulnerable. You all keep saying the vulnerable will have to stay isolated. I reckon a fair few teachers will be in that eighteen and a half million vulnerable people.

And psychology is a big component - whilst there will be some who rush to the pub for a very messy session as soon as they open many will continue to live like they are in lockdown, or something close, even after it is lifted. I would expect that my office will remain almost exclusively WFH, for example. DD will go back to school but I can't see us going for a long wander round a big busy shopping centre either.

Agreed. DH and I were talking about this last week and both agreed that the official lifting of restrictions doesn't mean that either of us will be comfortable going back to the way things were right away, and in terms of when normality will return it's not really possible to say at this point. Normally we eat out at least twice a week. If lockdown was lifted tomorrow would we go back to doing that? Of course not, because it's not safe. When will it be safe to do that again, and when will it feel safe to do it, which isn't necessarily the same thing? No idea, that will depend on a lot of different factors and like everyone else we're just going to have to wait and see how things pan out.

There will definitely be some people who rush out and attempt to resume whatever life looked like for them before the moment restrictions are lifted, but in terms of what percentage of people that is I'm not sure.

Yes Hooves, a lot of people are going to die.