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Original poster

Covid-19 and purity spirals

684 replies

DreadPirateLuna · 09/04/2020 13:54

Covid-19 is a very serious illness which threatens our most vulnerable and risks overwhelming the NHS. We should all do what we can to flatten the curve and save lives. People whose behaviour risks lives (e.g. urban residents traveling out to holiday homes in rural communities) should face criticism and sanctions.

However, I can't help feeling that some of the outrage at some behaviours is less about reducing the spread and more about getting caught in a "purity spiral".

Take all the outrage about people in parks. Fresh air and sunshine is good for physical and mental health, it improves the immune system which is particularly important during an epidemic! Many urban residents have no other source of open space except the local park. The ability to get outside can be lifesaving for victims of DV. Risks of contracting disease are very low if you keep your distance from others outside your household.

Yet I've seen photos of walkers and family groups in parks, keeping far away from others, but accused of selfishness and killing the elderly and disrespecting the NHS. Parks in London have been closed, meaning more congestion of other areas and residents confined to homes, which is damaging for reasons outlined above.

And it's usually (though not exclusively) women and esp mothers who get blamed. Those selfish Karens and their broods.

A more sensible solution would be to allow restricted access to the parks. Maybe allow only locals in nearby flats without gardens. But it seems we're not doing sensible these days.

OP posts:
Hearhoovesthinkzebras · 12/04/2020 17:43

it seems that when push comes to shove, 90+% of Brits will accept severe restrictions on their lives in order to protect the vulnerable.

I don't think that's the driving force at all. I've seen too many comments on MN along the lines of " why are we doing this to protect people who were going to be dead within a year anyway" to buy into the altruistic rhetoric. I'm sure many people are doing it to protect either themselves or a family member who they know are at risk.

Let's see the levels of altruism when we have to start weighing competing needs.

StatisticallyChallenged · 12/04/2020 17:36

Bleurgh to heavy period. Don't the little buggers understand we can't readily access our preferred take out/chocolate survival supplies?

That's my back of a fag packet analysis of the numbers. In reality I think they will be aiming to maintain that number at a level where the number of active cases is such that the critical care capacity isn't exceeded.

Original poster
DreadPirateLuna · 12/04/2020 17:25

We all want the same thing: to get out of this nightmare situation with as few deaths as possible.

I'm actually quite impressed with how well the British public are adhering to restrictions. Despite the past six weeks of conflicting messages, despite the years of being told there's no such thing as society and our only worth is as consumers, it seems that when push comes to shove, 90+% of Brits will accept severe restrictions on their lives in order to protect the vulnerable. Even where people are going against guidelines, it's often a case of confusion or ignorance rather than malice, and education is a better tool than anger.

And yet the current media narrative is that we're all a bunch of evil sunbathers and toilet roll hoarders who are going to kill grannies and nurses with our selfishness and need to be locked in our homes for our own good.

This is a dangerous message for two reasons:

  • It detracts attention away from the people who actually let us down. (Shades of Hillsborough and Grenfell Tower)
  • It risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, as people are less likely to comply if they believe their neighbours aren't doing so.

Look at countries with lower case loads and deaths than Britain, despite being close to the epicenter in Europe. Do you really believe that the Germans, Greeks and Irish are just better people than the naughty Brits? Or are they lucky enough to have leaders who took this seriously, shut down early, and communicated clearly with their citizens?

OP posts:
nolongersurprised · 12/04/2020 17:18

despite you all accusing me of magical thinking.

Nothing at all to do with the app, but you know that.

Hope everyone is enjoying their essential wine and chocolate!

nolongersurprised · 12/04/2020 17:16

I think I follow! Late at night here but have a horrible heavy period.

So - best case scenario from lock down is that r0 is below 1 and the number of active infected cases is a million.

In which case there’s 3 full months of lock down minimum before lockdown could be lifted and monitoring type numbers.

But - if, as you say, there really are a whole heap of asymptomatic cases then r0 will be closer to 1 in which case things will remain at a plateau for a long time.

All of which is probably moot without testing numbers increasing 10 fold, because at present active cases are significantly underestimated and shifts in the number of cases are therefore harder to interpret.

StatisticallyChallenged · 12/04/2020 17:11

I don't think it's the existance/use of an app you were accused of magical thinking over.

Hearhoovesthinkzebras · 12/04/2020 17:05

Well, I think the only way out is test, track, trace and quarantine. I can't see people accepting just letting thousands die at home because the hospitals are overwhelmed which is what will happen if we just lift lockdown and leave it up to fate.

I called the tracking app, which has now been confirmed, despite you all accusing me of magical thinking. Time will tell if the rest of my predictions are right

StatisticallyChallenged · 12/04/2020 16:57

Iceland's official death rate is currently running at about 0.5%, and they reckon even with their existing extensive testing that it could be missing about half of their cases (which roughly ties in with their random study finding half are asymptomatic)

If, and it's a big if, these are closer to the true numbers then with 10,600 deaths at 0.5% that would mean the UK had over 2 million people who have had it. If they are missing about half as they suspect then you're at nearer 4.5 million. Some of those will be recovered of course (or never truly sick)

Let's say that we have even 1 million infected, and that the lower r0 estimate from the London School of Tropical Meds applies (0.62). Now, how long from infection to contagion is difficult - 1-14 day incubation period, average 6 days to onset of symptoms but many asymptomatic. I'm going to go with most being contagious at 1 week for easy maths.
If we start with 1 million infected, then in a week they will have infected 620k
2 weeks - 384k
3 weeks - 238
4 weeks - 148k
5 weeks - 92k
6 weeks - 57k
7 weeks - 35k
8 weeks - 22k
9 weeks - 13.5k
10 weeks - 8.4k
11 weeks - 5.3k
12 weeks - 3.2k - near enough Korea

Now this is a gross simplification as it assume the existing cases drop off so in reality you need to add a week or two.

That's if we start with 1 million. If we start with 2 million you can add another couple of weeks, 4.5 add another couple.

And that's assuming that we have the contagion rate as low as we think. If the level of asymptomatic cases is high then the r0 was probably underestimated in the first place and therefore the current r0 which is based on this may also be too low. If it's closer to 1 then we're going to plateau for a while.

We're so far away from having the testing capacity we need for this too.

nolongersurprised · 12/04/2020 16:50

They don't need to get down to 2,500. It needs to come down low enough to monitor it.

How will it get from about 500 000 to 2500 though if people are still going to work, going to the shops and coming into the country? How will you know when the levels are low enough to monitor if only 10 000 people/day are being tested?

MilesJuppIsMyBitch · 12/04/2020 16:48

I hope everybody is having a lovely, impure Easter with chocolate & wine Wine

Hearhoovesthinkzebras · 12/04/2020 16:46

They don't need to get down to 2,500. It needs to come down low enough to monitor it.

I'd love to hear your plans from coming out of lockdown. Is it just basically lots of you will die? Do you think the public will just accept people dying at home without medical care?

nolongersurprised · 12/04/2020 16:43

www.bbc.com/news/52149297

Currently in England there are 10 000 tests/day and they are aiming for 25 000/day bu the end of April. Their ultimate aim is 100 000/day which seems lofty given that’s 10X what they’ve managed this far. At current testing rate it’ll take weeks and weeks to even find the 400 000 or so positive cases they’ve missed by which time the cases will have grown even further.

StatisticallyChallenged · 12/04/2020 16:33

I agree, the UK numbers are too big to drop to those miniscule numbers within a period which is economically manageable.

nolongersurprised · 12/04/2020 16:30

At the moment South Korea have 2900 active cases. The U.K. has supposedly 78000 or so, but that’s an underestimate given that the UK’s death rate is 12.5% and South Korea’s is 2%.

Assuming South Korea’s rate is correct (still likely an overestimate) there are about 500, 000 people actively infected in the U.K. in South Korea there are fewer than 3000.

Those U.K. numbers are too big to drop to the tiny numbers you want Hooves. Think about it - this whole thing started after a few infected people came into the country. The numbers are too big now to track all the contacts, the U.K. has the lowest testing rates in Europe as well so a whole heap are being missed.

I know you want to get the numbers as low as South Korea’s but it’s just not going to happen.

Hearhoovesthinkzebras · 12/04/2020 16:26

Because they are able to forecast numbers by projecting from numbers admitted, deaths etc.

The app won't work until wide spread testing is available, and that is coming. Of course tracking won't work until full testing is in place which is why I've been repeatedly saying they have to test, track, trace and quarantine.

nolongersurprised · 12/04/2020 16:19

The starting point now is too high which is why the lockdown will remain until the starting point is much lower.

How will you know?

nolongersurprised · 12/04/2020 16:19

I just won't believe it's going to suddenly turn us in to one of the countries with a miniscule number of cases. The start point is too high.

Yep.

Way too high and the undertesting is woeful. What’s the point in an app if you’re only testing 1/6 or so of the cases (probably less, given asymptomatic spread) and the actual cases are likely at least 1/2 million?

Hearhoovesthinkzebras · 12/04/2020 16:17

The starting point now is too high which is why the lockdown will remain until the starting point is much lower.

StatisticallyChallenged · 12/04/2020 16:14

I fully expected a tracking app - I just won't believe it's going to suddenly turn us in to one of the countries with a miniscule number of cases. The start point is too high.

Hearhoovesthinkzebras · 12/04/2020 16:12

And so much for my magical thinking. Matt Hancock right now announcing an NHS tracking app to alert you if you've been in contact with someone with it.

Clearly not so off track with my predictions

StatisticallyChallenged · 12/04/2020 16:09

a lot of people who will test negative who are sure they have had it.

We're also averaging way over 10%, and of people who haven't been in contact with each other. Some are drama llamas but I reckon we're way over the 10% in cases I actually believe.

But conspiracy theory prediction - "they're telling people they're negative so their mates can steal our jobs"

TheProdigalKittensReturn · 12/04/2020 16:08

(I realize they've existed for a while but still, sold out! I had never noticed them till now.)

Hearhoovesthinkzebras · 12/04/2020 16:06

And convinced they definitely had it in October last year.

alloutoffucks · 12/04/2020 15:55

I think there will be a lot of people who will test negative who are sure they have had it.
Only 10% of the population are supposed to have had it, but way more than that amongst my friends and family are convinced the illness they had was corona.

nolongersurprised · 12/04/2020 15:52

Just wait, when antibody tests become available that will be the next "you're a bastard who wants everyone to die if you don't get one every fortnight" topic, and some people will be coming back with "well I as a responsible person get tested every 3 days, so there!", and some other person will be all "I still think this is just like the flu and everyone is exaggerating so I do not intend to get tested ever".

I predict there will be some people who test positive but still refuse to come out of isolation because the specificity of the test is only 99.99999999 and there is a chance that the positive test is a false positive and “they’re not putting their health at risk”.