The Composition and Demographics of the Growing Trans Population

It didn't make any assumptions that the 2% of 5990 would be the same if all 85000 male prisoners returned a form.

headdesk that's why they did the damn survey. This is what statistics IS, you're finding out about a population by examining a sample of that population... THE ALMIGHTY CHEEK OF YOU CALLING YOURSELF STATSNERD.

yes you can often argue that the sample is unrepresentative and I can even think of some good arguments it might be true in this case, but you made no such argument, I'm reduced to arguing your case for you because I feel too mean otherwise! Your complaint is that they didn't survey all 85000 prisoners! And you're calling yourself statsnerd.

Not particularly to my credit, I have involved myself in some truly ridiculous arguments online with TRAs who vastly overestimate themselves but I swear, you take the

Sorry, the table shows age at point of referral, but is there a gap then re age for prescribing blockers or is it the same group carried through on the chart, if that makes sense.

stats I might do a FOI request just out of curiosity.
Here’s the link for the 2011-2015 figures:

tavistockandportman.nhs.uk/documents/408/gids-service-statistics.pdf

It only documents blockers numbers for the under 15s so I’m unsure whether age comes into effect- ie. by 15-17 you are pretty much through puberty so what is the likelihood that they would prescribe blockers at that point when they can give cross-sex hormones from 16? The largest numbers of referrals come from 14+. Also, how do the waiting times fit in, ie are the numbers for referrals by age the age at referral or age when seen?

Things are quite different in the UK. A free at the point of contact service could never allow treatments of such a nature based on self diagnosis to someone so young. I've got to be honest and say if I didn't have a lot of money I wouldn't go near the US healthcare system with a barge poll.

I can see though that stories from the US would be likely to cause concern in the UK or even be used to push a narrative that this is what happens here.

I'm sure there are some hardcore activists who would advocate for that but luckily, we are in a position where activists of both sides of the debate although very loud do not tend to drive policy.

I should add that, where there is parental approval, surgeons are performing elective double mastectomies on girls as young as 12.

The activist response to the question, What if the patient or diagnosis was wrong, and irreversible treatment was performed upon a child, has been that that should be of no issue because there is nothing wrong with living as a trans person.

But I dont understand why living in the wrong body is so horrible for one set of patients, and for another set ending up with having to live in a wrong body is supposed to be just something to learn to cope with.

Current rates not urgent.

Rogdmum

The latest figures I have seen are from 2017.

In the previous three financial years of 3958 referrals approximately 800 children were prescribed blockers (source - info request by the Daily Hate) if the children on blockers had all been referred in that last 3 years (which is not made clear) it would suggest that the incidence of diagnosis and puberty blocker prescriptions was about 20% of those initially referred. That would seem to support the 80% desistence rate however, that is an opinion only but it would make sense. I think a FOI request for figures may be successful as long as no personal information had to be disclosed to get the urgent rates.

Where I am, in the US, in several states expert clinician diagnosis of gender dysphoria is no longer required in order to obtain medical or surgical transition, not even for minors.

“On demand” is now how transition care is delivered.

Elective double mastectomy is now available on demand to girls 15 and older in a number of states, without parental approval — though the surgeons bill the parents’ insurance, where there is insurance, otherwise the state pays via Medicaid.

Hormones are available at walk-in clinics in most states on a same-day basis, without parental approval.

This is what activists pushed for, based on the insistence that the person in question interprets their interior state better than anyone else (not asserted wrt any other MH issue) along with the insistence that gender identity issues aren’t in fact a MH issue, and therefore the only pathway is affirmation only of self-diagnosis.

This is exactly what activists are demanding for the U.K.

Stats do you have up to date figures for referrals for those going onto puberty blockers? I’ve only seen the under 15s through 2015 and it’s a high proportion (in some years all) going from referral to blockers.

Of course I don't have a crystal ball however I suspect in the majority of cases as with any other condition that the clinicians are pretty good at getting it right. The low numbers of those referred that end up on blockers is testament to that.

I do believe still however, that your 80 percent refers to the incidence of desistence amongst those referred not diagnosed. As we know a referral to a specialist is not a diagnosis. If 80 percent of diagnoses were incorrect there is simply no way that a clinician or group of clinicians with such an error rate would be allowed to continue to practice. I do have a sneaking feeling though that we could go around in circles for a long time without convincing the other that our point of view is valid.

Is that some form of being cruel to be kind?

I have no desire to make anyone persist. I have a desire that a small number of children for who transition would be helpful to get the treatment and support they deserve.

Do you have a crystal ball? When presented with 5 children, all with the same symptoms of gender dysphoria, how do you know which is the one whose dysphoria will persist after puberty?

Treating all of them with puberty blockers is doing harm to the four who would desist after puberty, and it's by no means certain that it is not doing harm to the one who might persist.

'Puberty is the cure'

Is that some form of being cruel to be kind? I'm not sure you'll sell that to the NHS.

Thank you, statsgeek .

I have no desire to make anyone persist. I have a desire that a small number of children for who transition would be helpful to get the treatment and support they deserve.

I believe it is up to the clinicians in the field to determine those who they feel it would be helpful and certainly not me or even you unless of course you are a clinician in the field. I certainly have no wish to push or force children Ina certain direction. All I can describe is my personal experience, you may not like it or agree with it but it happened and it is what it is. it is clearly not for everyone but my experience is no less or more valid than that of a detransitioner.

I am interested in those that de transition though and I feel for them if they were misdiagnosed as I would feel for anyone misdiagnosed with any condition.

What evidence do you have that they were misdiagnosed? The reality is that for most children diagnosed with gender dysphoria, puberty is the cure.

I feel for the young de transitioners. I'm not sure my same sympathies lie with the odd desister who never had any treatment, wasn't seen by a GIC and worked out they weren't trans seemingly early in the day working to try and get the treatment for people who are in a different position than her curtailed.

An interesting comment from someone who seems to be completely unable to understand that most gender dysphoric children are not in the same position as them.

Most children desist after puberty. They are not like you.

Nauticant

I don't have a struggle to read the report. The report says that 2% of the 5990 people who returned the survey identified as in some way trans. It didn't make any assumptions that the 2% of 5990 would be the same if all 85000 male prisoners returned a form. We could hypothesize that is the case but without the raw data from all 85000 and supporting data to qualify how they identify its a guess at best. That said 1500 of a population quoted as around 650000 suggests that around 99.7% of trans people are not serving time in jail. Who'd have thought it reading the telegraph article.

To have a study with statistical validity it would likely require a control group that would consist of a group of people diagnosed with GD but refused treatment and then see how they got on 10, 20 and 30 years down the line. I'm not sure the ethics of that are founded in do no harm.

We already know that around 80% of gender dysphoric children desist after puberty. Why do you want to make sure these children persist and become lifelong medical patients by putting them on puberty blockers?

I've asked you about this several times, and your reply each time could be paraphrased as "it was right for me therefore it will be right for everyone else". This is clearly not true.

"Do no harm" would mean allowing children to go through a normal puberty with mental health support for their distress, and review once they are mature adults.

ROGDmum

Perhaps you are right. I struggle to explain the increase in the referrals of young girls. I still believe it to be a very small number proportionally when we take into account all under 18's but I can equally see that is of little comfort to you living it.

You are in the unfortunate situation of you can either support something you may not believe in or not support it and run the risk of a broken relationship. I wasn't supported and I haven't seen or spoken to my Mum or any other member of my family (xmt my Dad)in years. I don't imagine I will ever see them again to be honest but, I've grown to accept that because I couldn't bare the alternative. I have a lovely partner and good friends who make up for that.

I really do hope it all works out for you whatever way you guys go. You must be beside yourself at times.

We know nothing about the long term satisfaction rate of the new cohort of (mostly) teen girls presenting with GD/GI issues.

statsgeek1's posts show they're stuck in the past and are resistant to thinking that perhaps things have moved and are now different. See for example their resistance to reading that the number of UK male prisoners identifying as trans are probably an order of magnitude greater than the amount they are happy with.

Justathought

I feel for the young de transitioners. I'm not sure my same sympathies lie with the odd desister who never had any treatment, wasn't seen by a GIC and worked out they weren't trans seemingly early in the day working to try and get the treatment for people who are in a different position than her curtailed.

I am interested in those that de transition though and I feel for them if they were misdiagnosed as I would feel for anyone misdiagnosed with any condition. Their stories need to be studied, look at the commonalities and learned from. It does no one any good to ignore them. That their identities are so tied up in being trans is easy to believe. A few years ago, I started a new job and honest to goodness it took me three years to feel as though I was seen as a worker who happens to be trans rather than a trans person who happens to work there. On the other side of the coin a lot of family rejection stems from trans people at the point of coming out have an identity that is so tied up in not being trans, pronouns, friendships etc...

And there may be a hard core of transsexual pts for whom transition is the only option.

But there may be many others for whom some of these newer treatment modalities my work. As Bicker says, modalities that were not tested on trans patients in the 60s and 70s. It’s worth thinking about.

I have been thinking the same thing myself recently although I haven’t expressed it here (not trying to steal Bicker’s words).

quillette.com/2020/01/17/why-i-resigned-from-tavistock-trans-identified-children-need-therapy-not-just-affirmation-and-drugs/

here's an article which covers many of the above instances of people desperately trying to show the Tavistock fanatics that they have it all wrong.

We know nothing about the long term satisfaction rate of the new cohort of (mostly) teen girls presenting with GD/GI issues. GIDS does not track the outcomes of their patients. That’s one of the biggest issues right now. No one knows. Anecdotally, there are more and more detransitioners coming out, but generally speaking, they do not seem to show any inclination to go back to GIDS to update them (not surprisingly). Given the Tavi graph over the past ten years, we’re probably just at the start of some of this cohort detransitiong as they mature and start to hit their early to mid 20s.