Trans Women Should Be Allowed In Women Only Spaces

Facepalm
What at the notion of daring to say that transmen and natal woman are not exempt from committing sexual offences?

However what is very clearly shown (transcrimeuk) is that transmen commit crime at a far lower rate than do transwomen - the polar opposite of crime ratios in the non trans population.

How do you draw that conclusion then?

The actual number is less but as a statistic?

Surely to work out rates of offending you need to know how many in the general population and how many convicted? For a start we don't know how many trans people in the general population so how can any of the other statistics be worked out?

So that website shows in 2018 1 trans man was convicted. So 1 out of how many?

There might only be 1 trans man in the UK therefore that means 100% are criminals. There might be 100 so only 1% are.

Can you not see how important actual figures are and not just total number of convictions? All the total number shows is how many people were convicted. You can't draw any conclusions from that and if you aren't careful you could get someone publishing that list of offences/offenders alongside a list of offences/offenders of natal males and then state, based on total number of crimes, that trans women commit far less crimes than men. Because it is all in the manipulation of the data.

that transmen commit crime at a far lower rate than do transwoman
I don’t disagree that is the case, but I’ve already told you that your interpretation of figures based on that website is not correct as we already know there are 25 transmen in prison currently on long sentences and 100 transwoman. So yes, more transwoman but not by the figures you’re suggesting and based solely on longer sentences. Also if figures suggest that there are 4x more transwoman than transmen (as you mentioned earlier) then actually the figures tell a different story to what you’re suggesting.

Looking at those figures still tells you little in isolation.

What are the numbers for women committing the same crimes? The only conclusion that they draw is under the sexual offences heading. How many women were charged in say 2018 with those offences and how many men? Then we might be able to start drawing some inferences but even so statistically I doubt that much can be inferred because the numbers are so small.

Again, I'm not even sure what relevance this has to your argument. Just say you could prove that the risk of trans women committing an offence is X. That might be a small number. Many people might think "not too bad" and not support your argument against self ID. Surely, the big concern is that the introduction of self ID basically renders the whole trans issue moot. Any man would have access to single sex spaces, therefore the rates of crimes committed by trans women is totally irrelevant. You would just need to look at crime rates committed by men because any man could access those spaces.

It's all relevant.
Yes of course, but again you have no comparable. You only know the stories of trans people who are in the paper, poverty crimes for example will not be included. Same as the MOJ statistics that only show those on a longer sentence - so you cannot draw a conclusion on what percentage of crimes are sexual.
You also cannot draw a conclusion on what percentage of trans people commit these crimes as you have no data on how many trans people.
Do you really not understand why the data does not stack up?

@KiBob

I cannot see any of the details in the picture that you have posted so I can't comment on the data. However this is the question that you ask
How reliable is the data on the transcrimeuk.com website?

So you appear to be questioning the accuracy of the data that you have used in order to draw your conclusions?

KiBob your transcrime data is not more relevant than the MOJ data unfortunalty.

Aspie
Firstly, please don’t call me a TRA because I don’t agree with the manipulation of statistics.
Secondly, I’m not claiming that at all I’m stating what evidence we have but why can’t a transman be a sex offendor? I know a transman and he is my best friend and one of the most amazing people I know, but study’s that you link too show that transmen offend at a higher rate than woman. If you believe some transwoman transition to access woman, what’s to say some transmen don’t to access young boys? Although girls are statistically more likely to be sexually abused, boys are more likely to be sexually abused by a stranger.
Woman are also not exempt to being sexual predators.
And any time I refer to my transmen friend on here, I get told by at least a couple of posters not to mention him as ‘transmen are so different to transwoman’ I don’t think it’s just TRA that are ignoring them.

R.e the data, it is not untrue As such, but it does not prove anything. The MOJ data is impossible To draw a consensus on as we don’t know how they processed these transgender people, if they were trans at the time of sentencing and what criteria they’ve used or if it’s purely on a say so. We also only have statistics for those serving long prison sentences, we don’t have exact figures on trans men vs trans woman and we don’t know how many trans people there are in the UK.
The Swedish study whilst backing up Male pattern of criminality for the pre 1980 cohort of surveyed transpeople it does not prove this for the post 1980 cohort. It is also a small sample size of only 300 or so trans people, in a study that small, a single bad egg would skew statistics anyway.
The Californian study again is based on 1980 (let’s not forget how bad the MH provisions were then) and again does not say how many trans people there are, does not say where the inmates were from, caters specifically for those in a vulrenable capacity (trans and gay mainly).
None of the studies conclusively support your argument, using them without being aware of the facts of them, doesn’t do anyone good and it’s draining seeing it mentioned on every thread on here as some kind of GOTYA when in reality, it proves nothing.

KiBob

Firstly, please don't @me. Apparently it's not the done thing on this board.

Secondly, I don't understand your second paragraph at all.

I have read the thread and what I'm seeing is lot's of guess work regarding numbers of prisoners identifying as trans, types of crimes they are convicted of, number of people identifying as trans in the population as a whole (in order to work out percentages), not knowing if the numbers are trans men + trans women or just trans women, to name but a few of the issues. The absence of data on anyone of those points automatically skews the conclusions that can be drawn.

It's like me saying there are 30 pupils in the class. 27 have dogs. 5 have cats. How many have a sister?

We could all sit here and say well let's assume that 10 of the dog owners have brothers and 3 are only children then 17 have a sister.

It's guess work.

It can't be anything else. For a start off how many trans women and men are there in the country as a whole and how many in prison? Without those 2 fundamental pieces of data you or anyone else is only having a best guess.

The data currently available in the UK might show that trans women offend at the same rate as natal men but in looking at the discussions on this site it seems that that was shown in data from Sweden, so not the UK and was also not recent.

I would also be interested to see just how statistically relevant any data is considering the numbers are so small - how secure can the data be when you are looking at using even the most favourable figures (for you) 130 prisoners out of 300,000 trans gender people in the general population. Increasing that figure to 600,000 makes it even less reliable surely?

There are 125 trans prisoners (serving long sentences) within the UK.
100 MTF 25 MTF
With regards to the crimes the only concrete answer is that 60 of these are serving for sexual offences, the only concrete data we have is that 35 of these were born Male.

You are claiming that 25 out of the 60 trans prisoners convicted of sex offences are transmen?

I think it’s fascinating that TRAs have largely ignored transmen so far but they are very quick to throw them under the bus.

Almost like you think transmen are women.

All of the talk about crime distracts from the basic fact that women, by & large, don't want men in their private spaces, uninvited. This makes women feel uncomfortable, compromised, and tramples over their boundaries.I don't care how nice some trans-women are; they are not women.

Most women object to men redefining what it means to be a woman. We've had enough of that. and certainly when it is just about them requiring external validation of their identity.

Do you genuinely think that, say in in 20 years after a (heaven forbid) law change means self-ID people have to be allowed into biological women only spaces, that the studies we could then do (if they're possible and trans people are somehow countable) would not show significantly higher crime rates in male-to-female trans, than in natal women?

If such studies do appear it’s going to be a hell of a lot harder to resegregate women’s spaces than it was to desegregate them.

That’s if such studies are permitted to be carried out in any case.

We can't have the stats we'd need to categorically, undeniably prove with 100% certainty that allowing transwomen into women only spaces will lead to more women being subject to crime. But it's quite clearly the case that it would.

I think that you are trying to tie yourself into a knot though by manipulating non existent data.

I don't need to see data that may or may not prove that self ID has the potential to be dangerous - you can do that well enough just by pointing out the absurdity of as early said someone being able to ID backwards and forwards.

Any statistics at the moment is just conjecture. The very thin data that we currently have poses more questions than it answers - what criteria was used to include/exclude prisoners, were they trans women/ men at the time of the offence, who are they including in the "trans" category etc.

It's again just more distraction and I'm sorry but it causes me to question the motivation behind such fervent attempts to prove something.

The same with the thread started earlier showing apparent data that proves that trans gender people are not at high risk of being murdered. The numbers, which are world wide, are miniscule. That makes no sense to me. Either something has gone very wrong with the interpretation of the data or in the collection of the numbers because otherwise you are many, many times safer as a trans man or woman than you are as a natal man or woman. Does being trans confer some sort of safety mechanism? How else can the data be interpreted?

ChewyLouie I do agree with you, I don’t think you should have to show evidence at all with regards to self ID being dangerous. I think the very fact of self ID is that anyone can declare themselves it, so how on earth would you have evidence anyway? Someone could be a woman now but a bloke by midnight, who’s going to keep track? He could be a woman in the changing room but a man when he goes to court or visa Versa.
I don’t think the focus should be on trans people being dangerous though, I think it should be on the fact that any dangerous person could be trans and self ID is facilitating those people.
I really don’t like falsifying data though!

The point is not if I think any study would prove your points. My point this whole time has been to not use statistics that are untrue, misinterpreted, lacking key information or 40 years old and use them as fact.
You’re always so keen to point out to transgender people that ‘feelings’ are not what matters but facts are. You haven’t got the facts so can’t rely on your feelings to give you a definitive answer.
Speculate all you like, but you can’t twist data to fit your narrative.
By arguing there is already a high number of trans sex offenders is nothing to do with self ID as these offences are unlikely to have taken place in woman only settings (apart from the obvious - already convicted wtf were they thinking - Karen white

It depends, if they’re stupid enough to make self ID law they’re probably also stupid enough to record their crimes as whatever gender they wish. So I doubt the stats would show they commit at higher rates, it would probably show that more woman than ever are sex offenders or something equally baffling.
I don’t know if that’s your question though?
If they’re recorded as transgender, then yes the stats would almost definitely show at a higher rate than woman.