It never happens. Yet it happened.

Hi - how's the extra columns coming along?

One of the many problems with claiming that any of these figures are flawed research is that TRAs consistently shut down any attempts at further studies (proper ones, not ones cobbled together by Stonewall, hardly a bastion of independent peer-reviewed study). If you persecute any attempts to do proper academic studies, then you can't really complain about using figures from the studies that do exist.

It is a flawed piece of research conducted and published by an anti-trans website.

Two problems with this statement. The assertion that the research is flawed because of who did the head count in the publicly available documents. The assertion that Feminists and women's rights advocates are "anti-trans".
I understand this is the latest frame for doing the DARVO dance but I would like to point out that the obvious sub text is that transgender advocacy is an MRA movement.

I meant the first words of the TV report :
"It's usually her NRL brother under the spotlight but today it was Jade Walker's turn."
It sounds like the lead in to a report about an achievement, not a murder.

Thanks for your response LaSqrrl is that what would happen in England? It makes sense to me but the legal system can get a bit out of whack at times.

I believe Ian Huntley wanted to self ID in the belief he would be sent to a female prison.

Incidentally here is Andrew Gilligan - journalist wot wrote the pieces in the Times on this - defending the Fair Play estimates. twitter.com/mragilligan/status/933810495215362048?s=20

It is a flawed piece of research conducted and published by an anti-trans website.

Judge for yourself - the estimate was based on the publicly available prison monitoring board reports. This exercise- which you can spot check or replicate if you like - suggested 113 trans inmates and around half of these were sex offenders or Cat A prisoners.
www.google.co.uk/amp/s/fairplayforwomen.com/transgender-prisoners/amp/

The research is flawed as the only organisation that has statistics on the percentage of transgender prisoners who are sex offenders is the MOJ and they have not released this information.

This is from the Times a couple of weeks after this "flawed" study was published:
The number of transgender prisoners in English and Welsh jails has risen almost 80% in a year, official figures published by the Ministry of Justice revealed last week. They show the transgender prisoner population has increased from 70 in March-April 2016 to 125 by the same time this year.

The figure is likely to understate the true number of transgender inmates because it does not include offenders who have been through the two-year process to gain a gender recognition certificate (GRC),

The figures are not broken down by offence but James Barrett, a consultant at Charing Cross Hospital who is president of the British Association of Gender Identity Specialists, said he had been told by the Prison Service that “about half” of transgender prisoners were sex offenders.

So imperfect data, but there we go.

Let's have the evidence that this subset of males as a class are less of a risk to women then any other male. TRAs are the ones making this claim. I see no reason to believe it. They need to prove it, not anyone else.

If you mean people with transvestic fetishism, then they don't identify as women so are irrelevant to the debate.

Lol

You are funny. Do you do events?

Not differentiating between these groups is worse than unhelpful. It actively confuses things.

Quite. There is a good body of historical research on paraphilias and sex offending but now we have to pretend it's irrelevant because distinct populations have been lumped in together.

In any case, under a self-ID regime, how do you balance privacy and data collection? How will such data ever become available if it's illegal to isolate it?

I see we've had a case of statistics break out in this thread. I don't think we can draw conclusions from anything unless we have much more solid data than (I believe) we have. Unless we have good figures on the number of trans people out there and broken down into age categories, there's little we can say for definite based on incarceration rates. Even if you do have incarceration rates for trans people, you'd still need to view it by age because age is one of the strongest predictors for sexual and violent offences. As the number of trans people is rising rapidly, that's going to have a marked effect if you are comparing to the male or female populations in general.

Someone mentioned you can read something into the % of trans prisoners that are cat A. Do we actually have such figures but even if we did without knowing distributions I'm not sure what you could tell.

The probable scenario, imo, is that the one sub-group of trans people is especially violent and the rest either no more than anyone else or less. Not differentiating between these groups is worse than unhelpful. It actively confuses things.

Maybe there are shifts.

Also Groundhog Day. Every day.

We've done the Swedish study so many times now that it seems rather pointless to bring it up again. We all know it's been propagandised. And we all know that it doesn't include the AGP/ladypenis cohort, who are the people feminists are most concerned about.

You're going to have to come up with a new line, Sarah Ar. That one's been done to death already.

I was thinking of a relay ...

Maybe there are shifts.

Is it just me or is it the case that on these threads lately there has been this thing where one TRA comes on and then flounces and then another appears?

AGP is the elephant in the room in every conversation about trans issues

Not clear what you mean by AGP here.

If you mean people with transvestic fetishism, then they don't identify as women so are irrelevant to the debate.

If you mean Blanchard's classification, well Blanchard was trying to explain the aetiology of transsexuals, not the motivation to transition. He viewed AGPs and HST as both genuine transsexuals. However, Blanchard's theories are fringe, not accepted by the vast majority of his profession.

It is relevant Sarah in that if 5% of prisoners are Cat A yet 100% of trans prisoners are it shows that the trans prison population is more of a risk than the prison population in general and risk assessments should take account of this.
It doesn't tell us much helpful about the trans population in general.

'transadvocate'? Oh so totes non-biased at all!

Not sure of your argument here. Do you believe Transadvocate have misquoted Dr. Cecilia Dhejne? Or do you believe that Dr. Cecilia Dhejne does not know the data she used in her own study?

Half of all transgender prisoners in the UK are sex offenders or dangerous category A inmates.

This is not a peer reviewed piece of research. It is a flawed piece of research conducted and published by an anti-trans website. The research is flawed as the only organisation that has statistics on the percentage of transgender prisoners who are sex offenders is the MOJ and they have not released this information.

Further, the statistic is meaningless. If only one transgender person has ever committed a crime and that offence was a sex offence, then 100% of transgender prisoners would have committed sex offences. However, the probability that a given transgender person would be a sex offender is de minimis.

That there is no evidence to suggest that male pattern offending rates decrease post transition is one of the most important objections to self-ID. How can we not discuss it?

Actually there is. transadvocate.com/fact-check-study-shows-transition-makes-trans-people-suicidal_n_15483.htm. According to the author of the "Swedish" study if the cohort is divided into groups - one who transitioned between 1973 and 1988 and the other who transitioned between 1988 and 2003, then for the latter group they did not find male pattern criminality.