Woman I thought that Lord Ashcroft's most recent poll was interesting. It should be a wake up call for the Labour leadership, but it won't be.
Ashcroft is a Tory. He is LOOKING for things that the Conservatives can focus on and capitalise on. So although you should take his polls with a pinch of salt, you should also be aware of why there is also a need for him to not be miles out too.
He asked the question, do you know who Momentum are to 2017 Labour and 2017 Conservative voters. He split them into whether each of these voters were in conservative run councils and labour run councils to make four groups in total. A sizeable number of voters didn't know who Momentum were, but a majority did to varying degrees.
He then went on to ask a second question to all those who did know who Momentum were; whether they thought that Momentum were a force for good or a force for ill. This is where the result is quite stark.
In Conservative run councils, 27% of voters thought Momentum were a force for ill. In Labour run councils 34% of voters thought Momentum were a force for ill. Yes a sizeable number thought they were a force for good, but sheer number who look on Momentum with a great deal of suspicion is significant.
That will be what is being picked up on YouGov's polling about the Labour vote being 'soft' and not as loyal as the Conservative vote. They have been consistently showing that 20% of women are not sure who they will vote for. They perhaps will lean more towards Labour, but there is no guarantee they will vote Labour or vote at all. There is a big question mark hanging there for a LOT of people. Not a small number.
Polling outside GE's isn't well understood. People look at the headlines and not the detail. They tend to be a lot less accurate because they don't push 'don't knows' to make a decision except for the final few polls - and getting this right is key to getting closest to the actual result. 20% of women voters being 'don't knows' and being discounted from the headline figures they are currently producing mean the polls are potentially WAY off the mark.
A lot of it will be related to other issues, but the trans activism is most definitely from the Momentum part of the party primarily and is very indicative of it, so what Ashcroft is showing really should set alarm bells ringing for Labour.
It shows an underlying fear of the direction Labour are taking. If Labour fail to address that, it WILL do them harm, because they can not rely on the vote.
This is why, it is absolutely right to do anything you can NOW, to make the point and make Labour listen, if you are labour leaning BEFORE we get anywhere near a GE. This isn't playing to Tory hands to do it now. Its saving Labour from its own naval gazing bullshit.