Labour lose 3 points - ALL women leaving the party

The long and short of it, is that the Labour vote is much softer than the Conservative one.

Exactly this. I do think one possible explanation is that women are, as many on here, beginning to recognise that they are not the current Labour priority and also that the grass isn't much greener anywhere else.

And it's also worth factoring in that Labour's electoral performance is much more vulnerable to voter apathy than that of the Tories.

Thanks Red v interesting

I had a really good look at the YouGov stuff last week, to see if there was anything that supported the theory of it being due to LabourLosingWomen.

I don't think it was anything notable or out of the ordinary or significant shift shown last week.

See my post on page 4
Sun 11-Feb-18 10:39:51
Its about what YouGov is showing and what it is not showing. There is only one trend there, which should be noted: How volatile it is and how Labour's vote isn't as solid as the Con one. Beyond that it only shows which voters are showing up as particularly tricky and have no confirmed loyalty.

I think the point is never simply read the headline figure. Its pretty meaningless. The devil is in the detail, I'm afraid.

The yougov polling is showing something different to what everyone is reporting it is because too many reporters haven't got a clue about stats or polling methodology.

Here's the single biggest key point, well put:

twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/964496258068107264
This also touches on the same thing.

As does this tweet.
Jane Green‏ @ProfJaneGreen
Women consistently say 'don't know' more regularly than men; the most consistent gender gap. Sometimes the don't knows split in one direction more than others (#ge2017 to Labour) making this very significant.

The accuracy of the final poll before an election, isn't about those headline numbers that generate all the headlines for weeks in advance. Its about how they classify all those don't know and how accurately they assess likelihood to vote. YouGov nailed it at the election when others didn't.

This latest headline YouGov figure does not include those who are don't knows. This is (obviously) really important, and frankly is a statistical abomination.

20% of women currently saying 'don't know' is a huge number. You also have 9% of women currently saying they will not vote at all (which is the same as men so perhaps not as relevant)

They MIGHT be more likely to vote Labour. But I'd be extremely weary of the assumption that women will definitely behave the same way on the next election day compared with the last one. Why? Because of the groups which are most likely to be the don't knows and the stay at homes.

Because the don't knows are so big, it could hide all manner of trends.

The 'don't know' option is much higher in the 18 - 24 age group and the 25 - 50 age group too (men and women combined) compared to the 65+ group. Younger people are less confident of the way they will vote.

Also notable in this weeks poll is that the 25 - 50 age group (for both male and female) has a significantly higher number of people saying they won't vote at all, than any other group. (14% compared to 5% 65+, 5% 50 - 64 and 8% 18 - 24) At the last election the biggest age group who didn't vote were the 18 - 24s. This is a big and significantly difference between last week and this.

Not only that, I've looked at the past three YouGovs for this 12/13th Feb / 5th/6th Feb / 28th / 29th Jan and 7th / 8th Jan:

18 - 24 - 8 / 9 / 18 / 19
25 - 50 14 / 16 / 12 / 12
50 - 64 5 / 7 / 5 / 7
65+ 5 / 6 / 5 / 7

So young people are more likely to vote than they were a month ago, whilst the middle aged is the least likely to vote. Looking back further the 25 - 50 group seem to be the difficult one consistently. The young intention is up and down.

The long and short of it, is that the Labour vote is much softer than the Conservative one. Women and the 25 - 50 groups are the most undecided (and perhaps are the most volatile decisive groups particularly as both are more spread out and evenly distributed than other age groups / social class etc etc).

Women and the 25 - 50 groups are notable for four reasons: they are parents / they are the core of the work force / and they are the group settling down and looking to buy a house or have bought one recently / Remain supporters. Plus the 25 - 50 group isn't so concentrated in particular areas like the youth or older vote so it has more of an effect.

I would not like to second guess group either tbh because they are the ones torn in different directions most. The classic centrists! Most of the pollsters got it wrong for the last election, when they tried to call it.

Given that only 72 votes across a few key marginal seats, made the difference between a tory majority and a hung parliament, anyone drawing any conclusions about who currently might win an election and who is currently leading without counting 20% of women and 9% of men in the figures, is talking bullshit to say the least.

The poll doesn't say nothing, but it certainly isn't saying anything clear or straightforward either.

(Sorry for boring everyone to death. That's just my take on the YouGov figures).

I still don’t know what his views on Brexit are.

Do you, Jennifer?

He kept his Brexit signpost well hidden, in the knowledge that he'd have lost a ton of remain voters had he been honest about his ideology views.

Corbyn couldn't signpost his way out of a paper bag

On the crowdfunder

“People are free to campaign within the party and free to raise these issues and have that discussion.”

On self ID (same interview)

“Do you think that a self-identified trans woman is a woman?”

“Yes,” came the simple response.

“The position of the party is that where you have self-identified as a woman, then you are treated as a woman,”

askbasil and ovahere Mhairi Black has totally drunk the Koolaid AFAIK - unless something has changed since this:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/womens_rights/3154398-Mhairi-Black-throws-women-under-the-bus

Yes corbyn has been such a clear signpost on Europe. Don't think I will get rid of my sat nav just yet.

Thanks Jennifer, I think the main stream media are starting to notice and discuss the issue - The Andrew Marr Show and The Independent as examples. Myself, and I think many others on Mumsnet are only starting to realise the repurcussions of self ID. As more people become aware and more vocal the politicians will have to come off the fence.

Hey Violet, Jess and most of the other politicians are doing what politicians do... sitting on the fence and waiting to see which way the wind blows. No one wants to be the first one to speak out and endure the pile on. Weathervanes. There are feminists in Labour starting to speak out on this, we just need to keep pushing.

Tony Benn described politicians as either signposts or weather vanes. Corbyn, and Margaret Thatcher are signposts. They know what they believe, have clears aims and are not afraid to state them. They don't need focus group feedback before giving their opinions.

Benn had more respect for signposts. Although he noted, and I agree with him, that Thatcher was a signpost pointing in the wrong direction!

Jess Phillips that should say !

Thanks for all you are doing JenniferJames. I am astounded that there is not one feminist MP standing up for us or talking about this. Do you know what Jess Phillip thinks of self ID ?

Last week's poll may have been a blip? Women Labour voters up five percentage points today.

JRM has just replaced BoJo as the Tories' favourite comical posh bloke

"Shares in abortion pills" seems something of a stretch. He has money in funds (normal enough) and one of those funds has shares in a pharmaceuticals company that produces pills that are used as abortifacients.

*pre-brexit

I wouldn't vote for him. But plenty would, and have.

He has an air of noblesse oblige about him (real or faked), which is lacking in others and could certainly appeal to some.

If you'd told me a few years ago (pre-owned Brexit, pre-Trump) that he might become PM I'd have laughed. I remember the outrage I felt when his candidacy was announced in my constituency; I was offended that the Tories thought he'd do!

But its true that he does not fluff about like the rest of them seem to. I think he would be much better than May, but that doesn't really take much if I am honest..

He is anti-abortion but regards it as a personal religious matter that's never going to make a damned bit of difference in British politics. He certainly doesn't campaign on it.

Apparently he has shares in abortion pills. So that might have something to do with this.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-abortion-pills-abortion-rape-conservative-party-conference-tory-leadership-leader-a7976386.html

Thanks OvaHere

I have a lot of issues with the man. But he's still a good MP.

Really? I've heard the opposite

He's very popular. He's very involved in his constituency, holds thrice-monthly surgeries you can book in advance, visits local schools, etc. Won overwhelmingly in the last election.

Some people dislike him because he is posh. Others because of his Christian views. But I think he's almost universally considered to be intelligent, dedicated and has a lot of personal and political integrity.

Like someone else said, that filibuster is the main problem I've ever had with him.

I'm not a fan, but Rees-Mogg is an excellent constituency MP from what I've heard.

I've heard the same through family. They would never vote for him but he does do a good job apparently.

I'm not a fan, but Rees-Mogg is an excellent constituency MP from what I've heard.
Really? I've heard the opposite!

Violet

The Conservatives until the last few months were the ones pushing for the GRA amendments and self ID. They have backtracked somewhat and it's now on hold, it's unclear why but probably a combination of realising it's not popular with their voter base, too much to deal with re Brexit and maybe DUP influence.

The SNP are now the one's pushing this hard and the wording of their consultation suggests it's pretty much a done deal and they plan to tailor the legislation based on the replies rather than outright scrap it. If it's introduced this is going to put pressure back on the Conservatives and create a bit of a mess as to whether you recognise self ID issued in Scotland when a person crosses the border.

Labour have been attempting to bring in self ID within their own party through the backdoor without any policy sign off which has created a big divide and seen many women leaving the party.

All other parties Libs/Greens/WEP support self ID currently.

That leaves UKIP who I doubt any feminists want to throw their lot in with.

No party seems to have done any type of risk analysis or impact assessment of self ID with respect to women and girls. This is one of the biggest issues - you cannot dispense with biological sex categories without huge ramifications and at the moment it appears virtual no political party gives a shit about that.