Year 10 predicted grades for GCSE. Far too low. School wont listen

I understand them to be the same as Kemble Twins. In my teaching experience, they are lowest acceptable grades that a student can be expected to get (bearing in mind that there are many variables affecting performance - motivation, ease of the exam paper for that particular student, coursework, revision...) and basically if he got below Cs, then the teacher would be having to answer questions - as to why he has underperformed. I understand it as this is the minimum grade he is expected to get.

I would imagine these are Fisher Family Trust targets. These take into account not only KS2 data but also social data for the school such as Free school meals. Although the school can tweek them to discount some of the social data.

It may be worth asking for a little more information on how these are calculated. Schools can set their targets to fall in line with a certain type of school nationally. My school compares itself with the top 25% of schools nationally. So the statisticians works out the chances of each of my pupils may get of achieving each GCSE grade in each subject of they were attending school which is in the top percentile of achievement. Some schools choose to dip into a lower percentile for their figures, your school may be doing this.

Something else to bear in mind is that these ttargets give a probability for the student to achieve each grade. So your son may have say 1 35% chance of getting a C, but a 34% chance of getting a B. THe target therefore will be a C even though he is almost as likely to get a B. On my target grades lists ffor my classes I do have a note of which pupils have a very similar percentage for a different grade. Your school should be able tto tell you this.

It should also be possible for your school to set him an aspirational target if they feel that is appropriate. I do this sometimes if the official target seems low.

I hope that makes sense, I have been dealing wwith targets and figures all day and my head is so pickled I have come home early and am now in bed. My laptop keys are also sticking.

Do you know what his baseline test scores are (the IQ-type tests he'd have taken in Y7)? The school will probably stand by these results and it will take a lot to budge them.

Is your DS really, honestly, truly working to the best of his ability.

Can you get any evidence of what he can do, eg Sats results (I know they cancelled them last year, but the school may have done them voluntarily).

The school may be playing silly beggars with statistics - predict low, and give themselves a bit pat on the back when he does well.

What is really important is that they don't prevent him from doing higher GCSE papers. If he is predicted a C, they may want to just teach him Foundation level work, and that is pretty disastrous for a bright student. A lot of schools would rather get a definite C, than risk a B in the higher paper and get nothing.

If I were in your position, I would want a good 20 minute meeting with someone in authority to go through all his test scores from the start of Y7 - Sats, cats, end-of-year exams, module tests - the lot! You really don't want him to miss out on higher level teaching.

Whilst I agree it's unfair of the school to exclude your DS from certain activities if they've decided that he's not likely to get above C grades (based on whatever bonkers scheme they have going) actual predicted grades will not be submitted anywhere officially until he is in Yr 11, by which time he will have had chance to prove these grades wrong. Predicted grades are an odd thing. At my last school, students were given "target minimum" grades, rather than predicted grades at the beginning of Yr 10, which represented the LOWEST they ought to achieve. As a form tutor, it was tough explaining to students who'd achieved a 7 in their KS3 SATS (this was a couple of years ago) why their GCSE "predicted" grades were Cs. They didn't understand that these grades were not "predictions" as such, but a baseline, below which they were not supposed to fall. For the school, it was useful for teachers to have a clear record to refer to in case of students falling behind where they should, but for the students it was a bit confusing, as they assumed that their TMGs were "predictions". IME, predicted grades are only used in Yr 11 for admininstrative purposes (they have to be submitted when exam entries go in) and for if students are applying to college/VI Form At your DS's school, it sounds a bit odd. He has plenty of chance to prove them wrong, though, as NyeEve says.

DD was predicted a load of Cs based on her CAT tests in Yr 7 (good but not great - she can't do those reasoning tests) and she is now at Cambridge Uni

Take him to Uni open days yourself - they are open to everyone, encourage him with his coursework and get him to prove them wrong! (Schools love value added students).

these will be his Fisher Family Trust predicions then?
If he is hacked off hten let him prove to them and himself he can do better.