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GCSE: is it true they're graded so that ca 1/3 must fail? How are boundaries decided?

135 replies

ParentOfOne · 12/09/2025 14:04

I understand that grade boundaries can change from year to year and from exam board to exam board. E.g. a 4 in Maths can be 40 points out of 240 one year and 45 out of 240 another year. That I get.

What I don't understand is:

  • what, exactly, is the statistical methodology to adjust the boundaries from year to year? Is it even publicly disclosed? How much of a subjective, qualitative assessment is it?
  • Is it true that the exams are graded on a curve in such a way that, by design, ca. 1/3 of the kids will fail?

On the last point, there are many mumsnetters who hold very strong opinions that it's true, but I have not found official confirmation.

If it were true, it would mean that the bottom third would fail regardless of score; e.g. one year the bottom third could score 40% of the points, another year 55%.

If we look at Maths Grade boundaries for Edexcel, we see that a 4 has ranged from 51% to 60% of the total points in the foundation paper, and from 17% to 22% of the higher paper. These are not percentiles, but percentages of the total point. https://mathsbot.com/gcse/boundaries

This doesn't seem to me like a system that's designed to fail 1/3 of the students regardless of score.
If you get less than 50-60% of the questions right in the easier version of the exam, and less than 20% in the harder version, it seems pretty clear to me that you have not even mastered the basics of the subjects. In many countries 60% or thereabout tends to be the threshold for passing.

This is also why I don't understand those who say that 1 to 3 are also passes. You pass if you get 10% of the points? What is the definition of failing then?

Or am I missing something?

TES explained that in the first year the % of grade 9 was set equal to a certain % of those achieving >=7, but how it changed after the first year is unclear https://www.tes.com/magazine/analysis/secondary/gcse-and-a-level-grade-boundaries

GCSE maths grade boundaries

All the past grade boundaries for the 9 - 1 GCSE mathematics exam. All exam boards and tiers included.

https://mathsbot.com/gcse/boundaries

OP posts:
Fearfulsaints · 15/09/2025 07:24

sashh · 15/09/2025 05:45

CSE grade 1 was equivalent to an O Level grade C. I was quite shaky on chemistry so I sat both CSE and O Level in that subject.

You didn't get a CSE if you got an O Level at D or E but you could get an O level on an A Level paper because they were both GCEs, Ordinary Level and Advanced Level.

O Levels were for the top 20% academically, CSEs were for the next 30% and 50% left school with no qualifications.

Oh and when I was sitting them they also had AO Levels which were O Levels for more mature students.

And 'Special' papers for the most academic to sit alongside A Levels.

This is very interesting. Having had a look into it, it seems maths and english were the most popular papers but it looks like 20% of people just left school not having sat a paper at all.

Hercisback1 · 15/09/2025 06:05

This is particularly true if you do the kind of blind recruitment whereby the interviewer doesn't see, when looking at a CV, what university the candidate graduated from.

Surely the degree matters more than the university? A History graduate will have done less maths than a Science graduate.

Back to your original point. You have no idea how difficult some people find it to learn, use and retain information. Your child aiming for the 11+ is in the top percent of children nationally. You interact with graduates at work. You don't see those people who struggle. One of the hardest working students I have ever taught got a grade 2 this year and I was proud of them.

sashh · 15/09/2025 05:45

BestZebbie · 14/09/2025 09:26

Did you get awarded a CSE if you failed the O-Level with enough points scored?

It is possible to do courses directly at Level 1, and obviously in those cases that is the purpose of the course and if you do the Level 1 work sufficiently you get the Level 1 certificate, which is a pass of that course.

If you get Grade 2 GCSE, what do you record it as on a CV? It isn't really a "Level 1 certificate in Whatever", it is a very low grade GCSE in Whatever.

CSE grade 1 was equivalent to an O Level grade C. I was quite shaky on chemistry so I sat both CSE and O Level in that subject.

You didn't get a CSE if you got an O Level at D or E but you could get an O level on an A Level paper because they were both GCEs, Ordinary Level and Advanced Level.

O Levels were for the top 20% academically, CSEs were for the next 30% and 50% left school with no qualifications.

Oh and when I was sitting them they also had AO Levels which were O Levels for more mature students.

And 'Special' papers for the most academic to sit alongside A Levels.

ParentOfOne · 14/09/2025 15:37

@FallingIntoAutumn why a failure?

Read again what I wrote : I didn't say we are hiring graduates who lack text comprehension skills or basic numeracy. I am saying we use tests when hiring graduates to filter out the (many) who do.

And by the way it's not just my company - many employers use similar methods, for the same reason.

This is particularly true if you do the kind of blind recruitment whereby the interviewer doesn't see, when looking at a CV, what university the candidate graduated from.

@TeenToTwenties the problem with IB is that on one hand the education is more well rounded, on the other this means penalising those who may excel in one area but do less well in another. I don't have a solution, I don't know which system would be best.

OP posts:
FallingIntoAutumn · 14/09/2025 15:28

This is starting to sound like a failure at your work in your recruitment process

TeenToTwenties · 14/09/2025 15:22

My last involvement in grad recruitment was 20+ years ago.
All were highly numerate as we recruited those with good quality STEM degrees.
There were some I wouldn't have writing user guides but who were invaluable for their analytical and systems design skills.

It might be that we need IB in place of A levels and/or uni degrees with a wider skills base supporting the core degree.

None of which has much to do with grades 1-3 at GCSE.

ParentOfOne · 14/09/2025 15:12

@TeenToTwenties I am not talking about A level maths. I am talking about fractions and percentages, not derivatives and integrals, i.e. about basic concepts which should be part of daily life.

Same for text comprehension. I don't expect a graduate who hasn't studied literature to be that familiar with Shakespeare. But I would expect any graduate to have basic text comprehension skills. I would expect them to be able to read a press release, a newspaper article, a social media post and to understand what the text means, why the author said that, to question if the conclusions are reasonable, etc.

I do not know if you have ever been involved in graduate recruitment, but trust me when I say that many graduates lack these basic skills.

OP posts:
TeenToTwenties · 14/09/2025 15:04

Graduates struggling with numeracy will likely be because they have had 5 years off studying any maths. Almost all would have passed GCSE maths 5 or 6 years before. Skills go rusty. I have a maths degree. I would struggle with most A level maths if you face me a paper to do right now.

There are a lot of jobs where you only need a defined subset of foundation tier maths. If you are doing something regularly you can be proficient.

Fearfulsaints · 14/09/2025 15:00

If you are interested the oecd did publish a report on gcse maths.

Its quite interesting, with an idea for replacing gcse resits with something better.

It had a few points in it, one being we sit our maths test after 2 years at a young age, wheras mamy other countries go for a test after 4 years at an older age.

I think I have a different understanding of what basic numeracy means to @ParentOfOne so we will never reach a conclusion. But my view remains that a level 1 pass requires basic numeracy to pass and if you dont have basic numeracy you would fail. Mine is based on what my son did in level 1 and it was the things I keep being told he cant do. I also think qualifications are about showing what you can do, not just what you cant and grade 3 gcse shows you can do more than a grade 1.

noblegiraffe · 14/09/2025 13:58

The test isn't even inaccessible to them. Grade 3 students can correctly answer up to 60% of the paper. That's not 'struggling with basic numeracy'.

ParentOfOne · 14/09/2025 13:57

To gain full marks or near full marks in all of these tests isn’t „easy“ even for the highest ability children. Same applies to GCSEs.

There is a difference between getting full marks on the higher paper and getting less than 4 (I won't call it 'fail' or people get triggered...) in the foundation paper.
Two things can be true at once: it can be difficult to get the highest marks, but not incredibly difficult to pass with a 4.

@TeenToTwenties My point is that failing to get a 4 in GCSE maths is likely to signal the kind of struggle with basic numeracy that can be a huge hindrance in life, regardless of the profession. I am saying "likely to signal", not "confirms with 100% certainty", because I understand there are loads of factors affecting the result.

And no, I do not have a silver bullet, I do not know what the magical solution is, nor which system does it better.
The UK is maybe more transparent than other countries in publishing its GCSE results but this doesn't mean that functional illiteracy is necessarily lower elsewhere.
And I wonder to what extent countries like Finland do better mostly because they are less unequal societies with fewer broken homes etc

I remember that, when I started working, I couldn't understand why recent graduates were subjected to online reasoning and text comprehension skills as part of their interviews. I then came to agree with the explanation that it was necessary because there are simply too many graduates in scientific subjects who struggle with text comprehension, and too many humanities graduates who struggle with basic numeracy.

OP posts:
Araminta1003 · 14/09/2025 13:25

30 per cent are clearly not thick and the tests are just inaccessible for them.

titchy · 14/09/2025 13:16

TeenToTwenties · 14/09/2025 12:23

I've got lost as to what your point is.

Is it to write off kids age 16 who don't get the 4s as hopeless? To say if they can't get 60% on 3 x 1.5hr papers (normally amid a whole host of other exams) then they are thick?

Or do you have something more constructive to say about how you can teach lower ability children maths from 5-16 to really embed skills and give them confidence? If so I have lost that message, so please repeat it.

I think it’s the claim that 30% of English kids are thick as mince, and not even good enough to work in the local chicken factory.

Araminta1003 · 14/09/2025 13:13

The year 1 phonics test with the fake words isn’t „easy“ either, nor is the Year 4 timetables test as doing it in 6 seconds really requires knowing it really well and KS2 SATS require real fluency in reading and speed! To gain full marks or near full marks in all of these tests isn’t „easy“ even for the highest ability children. Same applies to GCSEs. All these National tests now are very rigorous. So no surprise that plenty of children fail especially those whose parents don't read with and to them and practise with them. And that is not even taking into account SEND.

Araminta1003 · 14/09/2025 13:03

GCSEs aren’t „easy“, far from it and it’s very competitive at the top end. So if the OP is complaining about the 11 plus being „difficult“, I think they will be in for a shock. We found the 11 plus a breeze for all 4DC yet 10-11 subjects at GCSE, some with a huge amount of content, have definitely not been easy. Mine have a high IQ but GCSE requires application and effort etc and it’s a very tiring process even for kids with a high IQ.
DD has a close friend who is an award winning junior author and was awarded a 6 in English language (1 mark off a 7 and still under review)!

noblegiraffe · 14/09/2025 12:33

Someone seems to be "conveniently ignoring" that you don't need to answer all of that to get a 4

You are certainly conveniently ignoring that kids getting a grade 3 or 2, or possibly even a 1 will be getting the pen-type question correct.

Yet you are claiming that 30-40% of kids would struggle with it.

TeenToTwenties · 14/09/2025 12:33

We also need to remember there is a non calculator paper. Kids like mine struggle with instant recall of times tables, so she can easily know what she is doing but make a 'basic' mistake to lose marks. Which is why they do need to be able to do harder questions too as they won't get full marks on the first ~48 marks.
(We 'solved' this for DD this year by getting her to write out a times tables grid in the first 5-8mins of the exam to then refer to it).

TeenToTwenties · 14/09/2025 12:23

I've got lost as to what your point is.

Is it to write off kids age 16 who don't get the 4s as hopeless? To say if they can't get 60% on 3 x 1.5hr papers (normally amid a whole host of other exams) then they are thick?

Or do you have something more constructive to say about how you can teach lower ability children maths from 5-16 to really embed skills and give them confidence? If so I have lost that message, so please repeat it.

FallingIntoAutumn · 14/09/2025 12:17

ParentOfOne · 14/09/2025 12:11

Foundation paper contains trigonometry, Pythagoras, solving quadratic equations and so on.

They conveniently ignore the harder questions,

Someone seems to be "conveniently ignoring" that you don't need to answer all of that to get a 4

@MigGirl You assume that ALL parents care about their children's education. We live in the real world here and you would be surprised at how many DC have little to no support at home

I know, I know that's an issue. I don't know what the solution would be.

Some older European colleagues tell me that, decades ago, in their countries kids would fail a year and have to retake it if they didn't meet the expected standard by the end of the year. I am not sure that's the best solution.

In some countries (I think Germany and Italy) there are secondary schools for the more academic kids and other schools for the others. But I am not convinced that classifying children at 11-13 is a good thing to do.

@Owlbookend I see. I suspect we probably agree on more things than we disagree on.
Simplifying, for me the toughest challenge is finding the right balance between the shallow approach of worrying too little about results and lowering everyone's standards, and the opposite extreme of ignoring context, of basically implying that if you live in a broken home it's your fault, and that military discipline is needed to achieve academic results (see schools like Micaela, Mossbourne with its scandal, Ashcroft etc)

The easier questions won’t be the higher marking ones. You dont get one mark per question answered.

grammars still exist in some areas so we do still have the “academic schools”. I’m in one of those areas and see many of the issues with deciding children’s paths at 11.

children in this country are also expected to retake maths and English until they pass or leave education at 18.

FallingIntoAutumn · 14/09/2025 12:13

MigGirl · 14/09/2025 11:25

If I had a 16 year old struggling with fractions and percentages, my top concern would be what they will do in life, not what random strangers may or may not think.

You assume that ALL parents care about their children's education. We live in the real world here and you would be surprised at how many DC have little to no support at home. The issues are way more complicated, then you throw in SEN and now days more mental health issues, broken homes ect. I'm surprised that as many children do so well.

Completely agree. Not all children’s lives are equal.

Isn’t it cited as one reason statistically children of immigrants perform so well in exams. They’ve generally got engaged supportive parents.

ParentOfOne · 14/09/2025 12:11

Foundation paper contains trigonometry, Pythagoras, solving quadratic equations and so on.

They conveniently ignore the harder questions,

Someone seems to be "conveniently ignoring" that you don't need to answer all of that to get a 4

@MigGirl You assume that ALL parents care about their children's education. We live in the real world here and you would be surprised at how many DC have little to no support at home

I know, I know that's an issue. I don't know what the solution would be.

Some older European colleagues tell me that, decades ago, in their countries kids would fail a year and have to retake it if they didn't meet the expected standard by the end of the year. I am not sure that's the best solution.

In some countries (I think Germany and Italy) there are secondary schools for the more academic kids and other schools for the others. But I am not convinced that classifying children at 11-13 is a good thing to do.

@Owlbookend I see. I suspect we probably agree on more things than we disagree on.
Simplifying, for me the toughest challenge is finding the right balance between the shallow approach of worrying too little about results and lowering everyone's standards, and the opposite extreme of ignoring context, of basically implying that if you live in a broken home it's your fault, and that military discipline is needed to achieve academic results (see schools like Micaela, Mossbourne with its scandal, Ashcroft etc)

OP posts:
FallingIntoAutumn · 14/09/2025 12:11

TeenToTwenties · 14/09/2025 11:59

It is easy for detractors to pick out an easy question on the foundation tier and go 'these are simple, it's worthless'.
They conveniently ignore the harder questions, or that fact that high pressure exams freak some lower ability kids out so they need a run in to build confidence.

Especially goves change to more exams and less coursework. Some very bright students struggle with the exam side of things and the coursework percentage helped support them.

granted maths wasn’t one of the coursework exams but it means there’s more exams and more pressure overall.

FallingIntoAutumn · 14/09/2025 12:08

ParentOfOne · 14/09/2025 10:13

Are you talking about the higher, not the foundation, version?

Both. All throughout their secondary their maths has been wildly different to mine. With differing techniques being taught which meant I couldn’t help them a lot of the time.

and I was academic and passed mine.

TeenToTwenties · 14/09/2025 11:59

It is easy for detractors to pick out an easy question on the foundation tier and go 'these are simple, it's worthless'.
They conveniently ignore the harder questions, or that fact that high pressure exams freak some lower ability kids out so they need a run in to build confidence.

noblegiraffe · 14/09/2025 11:42

ParentOfOne · 14/09/2025 10:13

Are you talking about the higher, not the foundation, version?

Foundation paper contains trigonometry, Pythagoras, solving quadratic equations and so on.

It's certainly not all questions about pens.