Please or to access all these features

Secondary education

Connect with other parents whose children are starting secondary school on this forum.

GCSE: is it true they're graded so that ca 1/3 must fail? How are boundaries decided?

135 replies

ParentOfOne · 12/09/2025 14:04

I understand that grade boundaries can change from year to year and from exam board to exam board. E.g. a 4 in Maths can be 40 points out of 240 one year and 45 out of 240 another year. That I get.

What I don't understand is:

  • what, exactly, is the statistical methodology to adjust the boundaries from year to year? Is it even publicly disclosed? How much of a subjective, qualitative assessment is it?
  • Is it true that the exams are graded on a curve in such a way that, by design, ca. 1/3 of the kids will fail?

On the last point, there are many mumsnetters who hold very strong opinions that it's true, but I have not found official confirmation.

If it were true, it would mean that the bottom third would fail regardless of score; e.g. one year the bottom third could score 40% of the points, another year 55%.

If we look at Maths Grade boundaries for Edexcel, we see that a 4 has ranged from 51% to 60% of the total points in the foundation paper, and from 17% to 22% of the higher paper. These are not percentiles, but percentages of the total point. https://mathsbot.com/gcse/boundaries

This doesn't seem to me like a system that's designed to fail 1/3 of the students regardless of score.
If you get less than 50-60% of the questions right in the easier version of the exam, and less than 20% in the harder version, it seems pretty clear to me that you have not even mastered the basics of the subjects. In many countries 60% or thereabout tends to be the threshold for passing.

This is also why I don't understand those who say that 1 to 3 are also passes. You pass if you get 10% of the points? What is the definition of failing then?

Or am I missing something?

TES explained that in the first year the % of grade 9 was set equal to a certain % of those achieving >=7, but how it changed after the first year is unclear https://www.tes.com/magazine/analysis/secondary/gcse-and-a-level-grade-boundaries

GCSE maths grade boundaries

All the past grade boundaries for the 9 - 1 GCSE mathematics exam. All exam boards and tiers included.

https://mathsbot.com/gcse/boundaries

OP posts:
New posts on this thread. Refresh page
flawlessflipper · 16/09/2025 13:53

I know it was designed to stop that, I was just pointing out the November GCSE series isn’t only for those resitting.

noblegiraffe · 16/09/2025 13:51

flawlessflipper · 16/09/2025 13:45

The November GCSE series is available for candidates who are at least 16 on the previous 31st August. It isn’t resits only. Someone 16+ could take it for the first time in the November series.

Technically yes, but the age restriction was designed to make it for resitters because a lot of schools were entering Y11 early in November rather than waiting till June and they wanted to stop that.

flawlessflipper · 16/09/2025 13:45

The November GCSE series is available for candidates who are at least 16 on the previous 31st August. It isn’t resits only. Someone 16+ could take it for the first time in the November series.

noblegiraffe · 16/09/2025 13:36

Yeah that’s what I meant, there are two gcse maths sittings
November - resits only
June - Y11 and resits

Different question papers for November to the ones for June. Same difficulty though.

flawlessflipper · 16/09/2025 11:19

sashh · 16/09/2025 11:09

Is it?

There should be a 100% pass rate then because you know all the questions and have model answers.

I don't think you are right on this. I know I'm ancient but I actually did one O Level (English Lang) early and that was a November sitting.

@noblegiraffe didn’t say the November paper and the summer paper have the same questions. They don’t. She said Y11 students can’t sit GCSEs in the November series. That is correct. She also said in the summer series resits students sit the same paper as the 16 year olds. There isn’t a separate paper for resit candidates.

For English, there isn’t a foundation and higher paper for English. If they had 2 tiers, it would help, IMO.

TeenToTwenties · 16/09/2025 11:16

sashh · 16/09/2025 11:09

Is it?

There should be a 100% pass rate then because you know all the questions and have model answers.

I don't think you are right on this. I know I'm ancient but I actually did one O Level (English Lang) early and that was a November sitting.

No that's not what @noblegiraffe meant!
She meant same difficulty!

Talipesmum · 16/09/2025 11:16

sashh · 16/09/2025 11:09

Is it?

There should be a 100% pass rate then because you know all the questions and have model answers.

I don't think you are right on this. I know I'm ancient but I actually did one O Level (English Lang) early and that was a November sitting.

No, it’s a new exam paper, not the exact same one people sat earlier in the year. It’s equivalent, but not literally the same exact set of questions - I think that’s what noblegiraffe meant?
And of course there wouldn’t be a 100% pass rate - they didn’t do that well last time they took it, it’s really hard to do better this time unless they’re really dedicating themselves to it. I would guess this resit lets those who are basically much more capable but who screwed up in the June tests recover the grade. It would be a lot harder for those who really struggle with maths.

sashh · 16/09/2025 11:09

noblegiraffe · 16/09/2025 09:01

The kids who sit it at 17 and 18 have an extra sitting just for them in November, and sit the same paper as the 16 year olds in June. That’s already well established.

Is it?

There should be a 100% pass rate then because you know all the questions and have model answers.

I don't think you are right on this. I know I'm ancient but I actually did one O Level (English Lang) early and that was a November sitting.

noblegiraffe · 16/09/2025 09:01

The kids who sit it at 17 and 18 have an extra sitting just for them in November, and sit the same paper as the 16 year olds in June. That’s already well established.

cantkeepawayforever · 16/09/2025 09:00

One obvious improvement would be for the 3s, currently stuck in and endless retake loop, to be allowed to move to functional skills (which may be seen as more relevant and thus get better engagement) after eg 1 resit of standard GCSE.

Or to move to a criterion-referenced qualification that says what a student CAN do (and thus has no overall ‘pass/fail’, just ‘can do arithmetic, can’t do algebra’that can be considered by future employers .

cantkeepawayforever · 16/09/2025 08:56

Anyone retaking who is on any kind of 16 - 18 pathway (vocational courses, apprenticeships etc) must be enrolled in retake English and / or Maths alongside their other courses. Those getting 2 or below can be enrolled on Functional Skills GCSE; those with 3s must continue to study for and retake the standard GCSE.

There will be lessons in each student’s timetables for English / Maths, though colleges do find engagement harder in these lessons than in the student’s main course in plumbing / carpentry / fitness / catering or whatever.

Fearfulsaints · 16/09/2025 08:44

ParentOfOne · 16/09/2025 08:29

some would get better grades if they simply didn't take the exams at 16, just waiting a year or two longer would mean they would get higher grades.

What, exactly, happens to those who fail to get a 4 in English and Maths? I understand they must retake the exams, but are there dedicated courses / colleges for them? Or are they basically abandoned and asked to study alone at home?

I suspect one reason these kids are not given the chance to take their GCSEs later is the cost and admin challenge of organising: higher paper for those taking it at 16, foundation paper for those taking it at 16, and foundation paper for those taking it at 17-18. BTW, I am not commenting on whether it's a valid reason or not.

I also suspect that some people would not like it and would complain that we'd be creating a two-tier education system; but we already have a two-tier system because we effectively abandon and kind of write off anyway the kids who don't get a 4 at their GCSE

There are a large number of colleges that allow maths and english resits alongside their level 3 studies (or level 2 if thats more appropriate). Its a condition of funding for those courses.

They shouldnt be just abandoned. They should be getting lessons. I dont thinknadmin costs come into it. The students are resitting in great numbers because they have to. Its just only something like 17% of resitters nationally get that 4 or above.

They oecd report suggests that a different maths qualification should be developed to replace resits as they clearly arent that successful. That said a college local to me gets 40% through thier resits.

They also get a chance to sit functional skills instead if certain conditions apply. Level 2 is equivalent to a 4.

TeenToTwenties · 16/09/2025 08:41

What, exactly, happens to those who fail to get a 4 in English and Maths? I understand they must retake the exams, but are there dedicated courses / colleges for them? Or are they basically abandoned and asked to study alone at home?

If you don't get the 4 in y11 then when you go to college you do resits alongside your main college course. There is around 3rs of lessons weekly for maths and the same for English as needed.

However pass rates for resits are low, for various reasons:
. you didn't pass last time with all the help from school, so less likely to pass anyway
. more focus on the main college course
. disenchantment / feeling a failure / lack of confidence
. may change exam board, which can impact for Eng Lang as question styles are different
. teachers won't chase for extra / home work, it is up to the student

ParentOfOne · 16/09/2025 08:29

some would get better grades if they simply didn't take the exams at 16, just waiting a year or two longer would mean they would get higher grades.

What, exactly, happens to those who fail to get a 4 in English and Maths? I understand they must retake the exams, but are there dedicated courses / colleges for them? Or are they basically abandoned and asked to study alone at home?

I suspect one reason these kids are not given the chance to take their GCSEs later is the cost and admin challenge of organising: higher paper for those taking it at 16, foundation paper for those taking it at 16, and foundation paper for those taking it at 17-18. BTW, I am not commenting on whether it's a valid reason or not.

I also suspect that some people would not like it and would complain that we'd be creating a two-tier education system; but we already have a two-tier system because we effectively abandon and kind of write off anyway the kids who don't get a 4 at their GCSE

OP posts:
Nat6999 · 16/09/2025 07:25

I think it is sad that a lot of kids are just set up to fail, not every child is ready to sit GCSE at 16, some would get better grades if they simply didn't take the exams at 16, just waiting a year or two longer would mean they would get higher grades. My nephew is severely autistic & has taken maths & English twice now & not got a grade 4, but is being forced to take them again next summer. Our education system is too rigid, forcing square pegs into round holes, some kids would benefit with longer in primary school & starting secondary school maybe a year or two later instead of being forced to take exams at 16 & failing them, if kids are supposed to be in education or training up to 18, let them use the extra two years to have some flexibility & learn at their own place.

sashh · 16/09/2025 05:31

BreakingBroken · 15/09/2025 23:47

@Hiptothisjive there were, when my trio attended when i attended and when nephews attended (various provinces) there were provincial exams. sat by everyone with everyone achieving a grade. at the time broadly set by the canadian governenment with some provincial leeway. things have changed as pointed out.

I have a friend who is a maths teacher in Vancouver, his students sit provincial exams, or at least they did, they have something different now but a similar idea.

BreakingBroken · 16/09/2025 00:02

i wrote provincial exams in quebec one for each hs subject in 73-74.
my trio wrote provincial exams in bc years 2000-2001-2003 again in grade 12 one for each high school subject
nephews in alberta.
so old old history, looks like bc changed the exams in 2016.
can't imagine why to me it seemed like a good system.

Hiptothisjive · 15/09/2025 23:50

BreakingBroken · 15/09/2025 23:47

@Hiptothisjive there were, when my trio attended when i attended and when nephews attended (various provinces) there were provincial exams. sat by everyone with everyone achieving a grade. at the time broadly set by the canadian governenment with some provincial leeway. things have changed as pointed out.

Maybe we are from different provinces because no one I know wrote a provincial exam including myself or anyone I grew up with or knew.

BreakingBroken · 15/09/2025 23:47

@Hiptothisjive there were, when my trio attended when i attended and when nephews attended (various provinces) there were provincial exams. sat by everyone with everyone achieving a grade. at the time broadly set by the canadian governenment with some provincial leeway. things have changed as pointed out.

Hiptothisjive · 15/09/2025 23:32

McSpoot · 13/09/2025 12:41

There are no national or provincial exams in Canada.

Agreed. Not sure what the poster is trying to say here.

Araminta1003 · 15/09/2025 12:07

We aren’t worse than similar countries. Our PISA scores are good, are education system is rigorous.
What I have learnt from this thread is to respect all effort and achievement and avoid any language around „failure“. It doesn’t help that the press continues to use words of KS2 standards not met/GCSE resit failure. I think the system we have works well overall just the language around the standards needs changing.

Hercisback1 · 15/09/2025 11:30

but merely to point out that having poor numeracy skills is likely to be an obstacle in life

This isn't a controversial statement. Of course it's an obstacle. Otoh there's no magic wand of understanding we can wave over people. Some people will always find things hard. GCSE grading is a reflection of that.

Talipesmum · 15/09/2025 08:27

TeenToTwenties · 15/09/2025 08:02

to point out that having poor numeracy skills is likely to be an obstacle in life,

I don't think anyone is disagreeing with this really.

Agreed. What’s to disagree with? Yes, having poor numeracy skills is likely to be an obstacle in life, make life harder, potentially underpin some unwise choices. There’s not going to be a perfect correlation between those who get 1, 2, 3, 4 etc at gcse, and those who will encounter difficulties. But there’ll be some match. Yes it’s a problem.

TeenToTwenties · 15/09/2025 08:02

to point out that having poor numeracy skills is likely to be an obstacle in life,

I don't think anyone is disagreeing with this really.

ParentOfOne · 15/09/2025 07:59

@Hercisback1 Surely the degree matters more than the university? A History graduate will have done less maths than a Science graduate.

The point is that the graduates from the best universities are more likely to be well rounded, ie it is easier to find a humanities graduate with decent numeracy skills and a science graduate with decent text comprehension skills.

With blind recruitment, subjecting graduates to basic tests becomes more important because you can no longer assume they'll have those basic skills

Back to your original point. You have no idea how difficult some people find it to learn, use and retain information.

You misunderstand. I was not trying to belittle anyone, but merely to point out that having poor numeracy skills is likely to be an obstacle in life, regardless of the path chosen. I am well aware that some people struggle and some people may work very, very hard and only get a 2 or a 3 at GCSE - but this doesn't change my point.

OP posts: