Correlation between GCSE grade and subsequent A level grade

The maths stats I see for 2024 show 3% on a 9, 9% 8 and 15.7% 7 (cumulative). So a shift from 20 years ago but still harder to get 8s and 9s than As and A*s. By about 2010 though looks a lot more like A+ maps to 7+ in Maths. Other subjects vary hugely from what I can see. I guess the 7 = A was based on where grades had got to by 2015??

Sorry I've just realised it changed my post and took out the stars and instead made bits bold!!

It should have said the percentage that used to get A star was similar to the percentage that now get a 9. And the percentage that used to get an A is similar to the percentage that now get an 8. For maths anyway
So really 8 and 9 are equivalent to the old A and A star.

As shown by the comparison between 2005 and 2024 for maths .
2005: 13% got A or A star
2024: 12.1% got 8 or 9

So if you think of a 7 as really more comparable to a high B in the old grading... Most people dropped a grade at A-level when there were no A stars. People who got A star gcse got A at a-level. Someone with a high B could expect a C or maybe a low B at best.

In 2024 5% got a 9 in maths and a further 7.1% got an 8. So pretty similar to the 13% getting an A/A* in 2005...

You're wrong and are doing a disservice to all those students out there that get D and E's many of whom go on to university and are successful in the workplace.

Really a 7 is a scraped A at best.

If you look at the percentages the same percentage get an 9 now that used to get an A in the noughties, and a similar percentage get an 8 as used to get an A. 7-9 to 9 has been badged as the new A/A but really I think 7's are on the low side.

Cambridge assessment report out for 21-23 v soon, this will give a better idea as 2023 results almost back to normal. 20-22 v Covid affected. Will post when see it!

@WomensRightsRenegade

To say D and E aren’t fails is being disingenuous. By what metric are they not a fail? Those grades certainly won’t be seen as a pass by anyone in the real world.

Well, accountancy professional bodies accept A level grades A* to E in their entry requirements criteria, and they're pretty much the "real World". Other professional bodies etc have similar criteria.

Lower tier universities also accept D&E grades at A level for certain degree courses, and once you have a degree, your A levels are pretty much irrelevant.

Nail on the head. A bright and motivated student shouldn't have much difficulty getting grade 7 at GCSE in most subjects really, whether they have any actual interest in it or not as a lot of it really is just regurgitating content from memory with a bit of application and understanding, especially in sciences. To get a decent A level grade, you need to "live and breathe" it as the leap from GCSE to A level is absolutely huge in sciences and Maths particularly but also in other subjects too. As others have said, a lot of the A level content is new content that the GCSE student won't have studied previously so it really isn't just taking the GCSE content a stage further!

This is common with SEN kids at post 16. Many fly when given the opportunity to study a small amount of subjects at a higher level. The load of GCSEs is often just too much for most people, let alone those with processing difficulties, esp if they're having to do that in subjects they don't even like. But it's important to remember 5s turning into As is unusual. Amazing achievement, but unusual. Also unless you have an internal 6th form with A Levels, it's unlikely any external A Level provider would accept someone with 5s.

I think the point is that if a child got a 7 at GCSE level, the natural expectation is that that level of attainment would be carried on into A Levels, so an expectation of an A shouldn't be that surprising, yet the statistics show that actually not that many 7s at GCSE turn into As at A Levels.
Everyone's situation is different and kids mature at different ages, statistics are just that.

That's not the warning I'm talking about. Noble giraffe posts the table every year and a shockingly low amount of kids with a 7 get an A in A Level maths.
Obviously people need to apply that to their own situation, look at the syllabus, A Level Maths is algebra heavy so that being a strength would obviously help but anecdotal situations about A Levels not being that hard don't discredit actual statistics.

Yeah I wasn’t really questioning the art grades but OP specifically asked for them.

To say D and E aren’t fails is being disingenuous. By what metric are they not a fail? Those grades certainly won’t be seen as a pass by anyone in the real world.

My son got 5s in all subjects except RE where he got a 7. He ended up with ABB at A level (A in Psychology) so with a lot of motivation and application it is possible to make huge leaps. A levels and long form essay writing actually suited him and his neurodivergent brain much more than GCSEs.

Probably different for Maths and other STEM subjects though.

Self selecting sample. It's far more likely that A level Art cohorts will be comprised of those who have a real ability/interest and are able to produce work that meets the marking scheme - nobody's going to need to take it even if they aren't that happy with the subject (or the Maths involved) because they or their parents want them to get into medical school.

I agree that it always seems so negative.

DD got a 7 in maths at GCSE and all her mocks are showing at lest a B possibly even an A at A-level which I think is fantastic. She also struggled with the number of different subjects at GCSE but has found studying A-levels easier as she doesn't have lots of different subjects to study at once.

An E at A Level may not be a technical fail, but it has little else going for it.

I find these kind of threads a bit depressing. It is like everyone wants their dc to attain As and A* at A level. An E is still a pass at A level, as is a D, C and B. There is so much pressure on teachers that many don't want students with less than a 7/ 8 doing their subjects as a consequence - not everyone will get top grades and that is fine.

The jump from GCSE to A Level in languages is a shocker. I would strongly discourage doing it with less than a 7 at GCSE. It's interesting the variation between French, German and Spanish on that table!

As a History teacher I would say not to take A level without a minimum of a Grade 6 - and probably a 7 at GCSE and even then you need to be realistic. I've had 8/9 students go on to do A level and be upset to find they are struggling to get past a B grade. Because of 'bums on seats' a lot of schools will take for A level with a 4/5 at GCSE.

The jump from GCSE to A level is a big one. To be honest, a bright student who puts the revision in should be able to get a Grade 7 in most subjects because it's generally just getting information down to a certain extent and if you mug up the topic and regurgitate the facts then you'll do pretty well.

A level requires (certainly in my subject) a depth of analysis, critical evaluation and a flair for writing that is way harder than just 'the facts'.

The data posted above should be considered with the caveat that the CAGs from 2020 were much higher than usual (37% A*/A vs 25% in 2019, 28% in 2024).

The warning is to not do A-Level maths with a 6.