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Original poster

Waiting list March - Sept: do they move only/mostly because of kids going private?

35 replies

ParentOfOne · 19/05/2025 14:48

Apologies if it's a very silly question :(

but, at a high level, do the waiting lists for state schools move, between March and September, only or mostly because kids go private?

I mean, I appreciate some families may have to move at the last moment, and some may decide to homeschool (eg if they didn't get any of their choices), but how many such cases can there be?

In other words, is the main reason for the waiting lists moving that some kids had applied to state schools as a safe choice, then got into a private one, and therefore gave up their place? Or are there other reasons?

I am in London. Not all councils publish data on the waiting list movements between March and September but, for those which do, the difference tends to be significant.

I suppose the main question for Sept 2026 admissions will be which of the two effects prevails, between i) VAT pushing fewer people to go private and ii) declining birth rates + families leaving London (primary schools have been closing left right and centre) making it easier to get admission.

In London there is so much wealth and private schools remain so oversubscribed that my crystal ball tells me i) won't be much of an effect. But I haven't dusted my crystal ball in a while :)

OP posts:
footpath · 19/05/2025 17:39

This years secondary intake is still quite large though. Primaries numbers are declining but because schools have/are closing, merging, reducing their PAN I believe fewer parents got their 1st choice this yr.

footpath · 19/05/2025 17:37

So you accept a place but you can still be on waiting lists for other schools.

It's a combo of people leaving London or moving within, switching to private (not all are selective) & then movement between other schools.

Parents do forget, you will get dc who are due to start in school X but just don't turn up at the beginning of term.

What school are you hoping for?

Original poster
ParentOfOne · 19/05/2025 17:28

@footpath Looking at secondary.

Some where like Graveney would have movement quite late as dc who got a high score may also get grammar places and then some will go private.

How does this work in practice? I have seen the websites of a few private schools and grammar schools, and they say that parents must accept a place by the end of March. Is the movement because the waiting list of those private and grammar schools means that some parents will only get a place in June or July, they forget to notify the council that they have accepted it, and so the council thinks that little Johnny is going to a local comp, then little Johnny never shows up?

OP posts:
footpath · 19/05/2025 17:16

Some where like Graveney would have movement quite late as dc who got a high score may also get grammar places and then some will go private.

footpath · 19/05/2025 17:14

Are you looking at primary or secondary?

Original poster
ParentOfOne · 19/05/2025 16:21

@where "It can depend on your admission category too. Some schools (Charter North Dulwich is one) offer a set amount of places only available to pupil premium students (via additional entry form)"

Interesting - I wasn't aware.
Of the schools I'm looking at, none has this, but some have specialist places (based on the Wandsworth test, or on specialism tests for music, languages and art). Not sure specialist places necessarily imply a lot of movement, though

I also wonder if some places are removed because the Council detects fraud - e.g. applying from grandma's address, renting a place near a school while retaining your main home somewhere else, etc, but, again, how many such cases can there be?

Maybe something to do with religious places? If they check with the relevant church?

OP posts:
KIlliePieMyOhMy · 19/05/2025 16:18

I did admissions in NW London.
Huge movement when Brexit happened, many Eastern European people returned to the country of their birth.
In reference to private education - if there is a popular private school near this will result in movement too.
It is a waiting game, unfortunately.

WhereAreTheWildThingsNow · 19/05/2025 16:13

It can depend on your admission category too. Some schools (Charter North Dulwich is one) offer a set amount of places only available to pupil premium students (via additional entry form) so if you fit in this category there may be more movement. For example some of these students may be rehoused too far away from the school so will end up going to another.

There are always students who never turn up at the beginning of year 7 for one reason or another. Some of these are private school students whose parents never declined the place but I wouldn’t say it is universal.

Original poster
ParentOfOne · 19/05/2025 16:00

I'm in SW London, and there are quite a few private schools within commuting distance.

Friends who work as teachers tell me there is a lot of movement in the first years of primary schools, but much less in the first years of secondary. Basically families with younger kids are more likely to do a couple of year of primary in a certain area, then move elsewhere, whereas once you get to secondary most families are more settled. Anyway, this would be movement after having started school.

I was thinking more about movement before the school starts.
There has been the occasional case of a school having illegal admission arrangements, which then caused massive movements, but that's rare and is a one-off. One case was the Charter school in North Dulwich (SE London), which calculated distance based on "safe walking routes" which just so happened (oh what a coincidence) to exclude certain council estates.

That's why I was wondering: is it really just kids going private? Some families moving out after having submitted their applications? Is there anything else?

By the way, annoyingly, not all schools and councils publish how much waiting lists have moved between March and September of the previous years.

OP posts:
RedSkyDelights · 19/05/2025 15:35

I think this will be entirely area dependent (and if you narrow down your area, people might be able to give you more local info).

in my area there is quite a lot of movement on waiting lists but it's driven almost entirely by people moving out (and in) of the area, with a smaller amount linked to people getting places at a different state school (either via waiting list or appeal). People getting private school places is a tiny blip.

But I'm sure it is differnet elsewhere.

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