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Original poster

Waiting list March - Sept: do they move only/mostly because of kids going private?

35 replies

ParentOfOne · 19/05/2025 14:48

Apologies if it's a very silly question :(

but, at a high level, do the waiting lists for state schools move, between March and September, only or mostly because kids go private?

I mean, I appreciate some families may have to move at the last moment, and some may decide to homeschool (eg if they didn't get any of their choices), but how many such cases can there be?

In other words, is the main reason for the waiting lists moving that some kids had applied to state schools as a safe choice, then got into a private one, and therefore gave up their place? Or are there other reasons?

I am in London. Not all councils publish data on the waiting list movements between March and September but, for those which do, the difference tends to be significant.

I suppose the main question for Sept 2026 admissions will be which of the two effects prevails, between i) VAT pushing fewer people to go private and ii) declining birth rates + families leaving London (primary schools have been closing left right and centre) making it easier to get admission.

In London there is so much wealth and private schools remain so oversubscribed that my crystal ball tells me i) won't be much of an effect. But I haven't dusted my crystal ball in a while :)

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DontLetTheSun · 20/05/2025 20:10

Also, DC is at independent and going into year seven in September. We did apply for a state school place last October when the picture wasn't so clear. We knew what we wanted by national offer day in March and released our allocated state school place straight away.

DontLetTheSun · 20/05/2025 20:08

I think there is quite a bit of churn and it takes awhile to shake down. For example, round here you get six choices of schools when you make your application and you put them in order of preference. If you get your sixth choice then you go in the waiting list for the school further up the chain. Then maybe you get offered your fifth choice which you accept, but you remain on the waiting list for the other four and so it goes on. By the time it settles, it can often be well into August.

A child who lives across the road from us originally got offered his second choice and it wasn't until the end of August, really just a few days before the school went back that he got offered his first choice. They had already ordered the uniform for the second choice School and had to scrabble around frantically in order to get uniform for final choice School.

555Stars · 20/05/2025 19:33

ParentOfOne · 19/05/2025 14:48

Apologies if it's a very silly question :(

but, at a high level, do the waiting lists for state schools move, between March and September, only or mostly because kids go private?

I mean, I appreciate some families may have to move at the last moment, and some may decide to homeschool (eg if they didn't get any of their choices), but how many such cases can there be?

In other words, is the main reason for the waiting lists moving that some kids had applied to state schools as a safe choice, then got into a private one, and therefore gave up their place? Or are there other reasons?

I am in London. Not all councils publish data on the waiting list movements between March and September but, for those which do, the difference tends to be significant.

I suppose the main question for Sept 2026 admissions will be which of the two effects prevails, between i) VAT pushing fewer people to go private and ii) declining birth rates + families leaving London (primary schools have been closing left right and centre) making it easier to get admission.

In London there is so much wealth and private schools remain so oversubscribed that my crystal ball tells me i) won't be much of an effect. But I haven't dusted my crystal ball in a while :)

I understand your question & the reason for it, it’s not silly at all. I can confirm I held onto our favourite State place & our favourite Independent place (1) when results & offers came out. Because, I wasn’t 💯 sure I wanted my DC to go to Private school. However, I released it a couple of weeks later (State). I definitely wouldn’t have left it till the last minute/during a time when uniform is brought! Although, there are people that do, because they believe they have that right.

Imo Independent and Grammar acceptances are going to be a main reason for movement w State comp’ schools. So, my theory is most movement will happen around March and again near the middle/ end of the Summer.
Remember, most Independent & Grammar schools have induction sessions in June-where the kids will make friends… so there maybe movement then also.

footpath · 19/05/2025 20:47

Of course you need to be mindful of max distances, that has always been the case & will give you an indication of chances of a place. I haven't said otherwise. What I said was don't assume falling rolls means maximum distances will increase...

Original poster
ParentOfOne · 19/05/2025 20:40

@footpath
And as I said this only tells a small part of the picture. How many siblings are there? Has the school reduced its PAN or is planning to? London is seeing fewer house moves in general because of stamp duty & costs so distances can move out. Just be mindful in assuming that if the catchment was 2k this year it will be the same next year.

Whether the PAN changed or is changing the following year will be public information.
As for the rest, I suppose I may have been unclear.
Of course the maximum admission distance is only part of the story.
But at least it tells me something, whereas knowing how many families got their first choice doesn't tell me anything.

If I see that the maximum admission distances for a certain school have been 1,400 , 1,500 and 1,450 metres, and I live 1,000 metres away, I know I have a decent chance.

If they have been 2,000, 1900 and 2100 and I live 1850 metres away my odds aren't that great.

I know these distances can change, I know there is no guarantee.

I am simply saying that looking at the maximum admission distances over the years seems to me the least worst way to estimate your chances. It is imperfect, distances can change, but how else would you assess your chances? Surely it wouldn't be very wise to say "distances can change so I'll have the same chances at any school in the borough"?

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Mumofteenandtween · 19/05/2025 20:06

If you live in a high density area and so have a number of oversubscribed schools relatively close together then one child going private can lead to a huge amount of movement as each move then opens up a place somewhere else.

footpath · 19/05/2025 20:01

Also increased numbers of dc with EHCPs which is usually 1st priority for a place

footpath · 19/05/2025 19:58

The point in my last message was that I would not think of % of families getting their first choice as a reliable metric;

But my point is it illustrates that fewer dc doesn't necessarily translate to more available school places.

I would focus much more on maximum admission distance, and be inclined to interpret that as a sign of how much harder or easier it's been getting to be admitted.

And as I said this only tells a small part of the picture. How many siblings are there? Has the school reduced its PAN or is planning to? London is seeing fewer house moves in general because of stamp duty & costs so distances can move out. Just be mindful in assuming that if the catchment was 2k this year it will be the same next year.

Original poster
ParentOfOne · 19/05/2025 19:50

"I actually confused as to what point you are trying to make. "

It started as a question on what drives waiting list movements, and it seems that my impressions were correct, with the movements being driven mostly by kids going private / grammar or by families moving elsewhere (at least in London, I appreciate that elsewhere it may be different and there may be fewer private schools and less movement).

The point in my last message was that I would not think of % of families getting their first choice as a reliable metric; I would focus much more on maximum admission distance, and be inclined to interpret that as a sign of how much harder or easier it's been getting to be admitted.

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footpath · 19/05/2025 19:46

That's always the case though re parents putting down schools without any hope of actually getting. You can't assume that lower numbers means maximum distances will increase because there are too many variables. Ofsted results are important but again unless they go to requiring improvement unlikely to have a huge impact.

Lots of people left London or moved to other parts during covid.

It's also borough specific, some boroughs are seeing more dc & more demand. Lambeth is as you say one of the worst affected.

I actually confused as to what point you are trying to make. But as someone who works in schools I would recommend people look at their school options in detail. Many parents thinking smaller classes are a good thing with more attention but if the funding isn't there it means less staff.

Original poster
ParentOfOne · 19/05/2025 19:23

@footpath I am not sure that the % of families getting their first choice is a very relevant metric. It will depend massively on how "aspirational" vs realistic certain families are. I think that the maximum admission distance is a more relevant metric. E.g. I have noticed that the impact of Ofsted rating tends to be very direct, with an outstanding correlated to a narrowing of the maximum distance, and a downgrade to a widening. That seems more of an indication of how much more or less oversubscribed a school is.

E.g. I noticed that after Covid the max admission distance in the local primaries went up a lot, and then came down again in the following years.

You can still have more people fighting over fewer places even if there are less people overall.

Sure, but that wouldn't be caused by families leaving the area, it would probably be caused by a school becoming more coveted because it has improved its reputation, got a better Ofsted result, etc

Local sixth form college to us has been massively more oversubscribed than usual

But 6th form is a different animal. At 6th form you do only 3-4 subjects, so changes in oversubscriptions could be due to many things, like certain subjects becoming more popular, or (as you say, if I understood correctly) kids applying from private schools to a state 6th form

Interestingly, Lambeth is one of the London boroughs with the most undersubscribed schools (5 or 6, I forget exactly). No idea how much that is demographics and how much it's the schools not being great, but it doesn't seem very sustainable for long.

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footpath · 19/05/2025 19:13

You also can't predict sibling numbers & if a school has selective places then distance isn't such an issue. Plus some schools have feeders.

My friend is number 25 for her preferred secondary. Sibling places were about 110 vs previous yrs of 80 ish.

footpath · 19/05/2025 19:09

Schools can't necessarily operate if they are not full due to the funding model so they reduce their PAN and some will end up closing.

reesespieces123 · 19/05/2025 19:09

ParentOfOne · 19/05/2025 19:01

What do you mean? If there are fewer families, then shouldn't the maximum admission distance increase in most schools?

I can see how in the best schools not much will change, as they will remain coveted, but why should they instead be more oversubscribed?

Show quote history

Local sixth form college to us has been massively more oversubscribed than usual - everyone I know who wanted to do STEM there didn't get a place. The open day was full of kids in Y11 at private schools, many more than usual leaving.

footpath · 19/05/2025 19:07

You can still have more people fighting over fewer places even if there are less people overall.

footpath · 19/05/2025 19:05

As I already said it's happened with primaries.

www.itv.com/news/london/2025-04-16/fewer-london-children-secure-top-choice-of-primary-school

Original poster
ParentOfOne · 19/05/2025 19:01

footpath · 19/05/2025 18:14

I think the best state secondaries will be even more oversubscribed with falling rolls.

What do you mean? If there are fewer families, then shouldn't the maximum admission distance increase in most schools?

I can see how in the best schools not much will change, as they will remain coveted, but why should they instead be more oversubscribed?

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footpath · 19/05/2025 18:14

I think the best state secondaries will be even more oversubscribed with falling rolls.

footpath · 19/05/2025 18:08

I know lots of dc who did not get a grammar or selective place but got a private. The private is often the back up.

Often it's the same dc who apply for the grammars and the selective places & some of those also try private which is why movement is often pretty high.

WhereAreTheWildThingsNow · 19/05/2025 18:07

My understanding is the birth rate issue won’t hit secondary for a couple of years yet. It is also much less likely to be a factor for successful/ desirable secondaries.

if I were you I’d concentrate on visiting as many as possible to get a view as to which will best suit your child and take it from there.

footpath · 19/05/2025 18:05

Oh so you are looking at 2026 entry.

I think with the grammars in SW london you put them down even if you don't know if you will have a place. You can pass the tests but still not get a space T your preferred grammar.

Falling birth rates will start to hit secondaries but it's not going to mean a dearth of places because the best schools are so oversubscribed anyway. VAT on private may push more towards the best states but I don't think we have seen evidence of this yet.

Original poster
ParentOfOne · 19/05/2025 18:00

@footpath "What school are you hoping for?"

State schools in the SW area of London, some of which are partially selective.
I will apply in October - haven't applied yet.

I suspect the main source of movement will be kids who use the good state schools as a backup, but then go private if they get the offer. You can only apply to 6 state schools, but you can potentially apply to as many private as you want, depending on how much stress you want to subject your child to!

Another source of movement might be foreigners who haven't reached the settled status and who might leave the country because of the new reform requiring 10 years, instead of 5, to become settle and apply for naturalisation.

I keep hearing about primary schools closing all over London, but not of secondary schools, so this must have a ripple effect at some point. Who know if it will be after my child starts Y7.

I also noted that most schools in the area have had a much larger than usual number of sibling applications - I wonder if that's just a coincidence but it means that offer distances in March 2025 were often shorter than in March 2024

Even if councils won’t give you the numbers you need you could probably do some sort of FOI request of the individual schools. Or just call the individual school admission admin person and ask?

I have called one council and two schools. The council told me to ask the schools, and both schools told me they don't track this piece of information, so they would have to manually go through every single child's file and they don't have the time for that. The neighbouring council is much more open and transparent, collects and publishes all data, including the difference between the maximum distance in March vs September

OP posts:
footpath · 19/05/2025 17:48

Most admission teams will give you a rough estimate where you are on a list.

WhereAreTheWildThingsNow · 19/05/2025 17:47

When you say there won’t be much effect how much do you specifically need? This is the only important factor.

In London there’s generally movement well into the autumn term. People do get caught lying, people forget, they get schools further up their list or not in the state system, they move away etc etc.
Even if councils won’t give you the numbers you need you could probably do some sort of FOI request of the individual schools. Or just call the individual school admission admin person and ask?

gcsesargh · 19/05/2025 17:41

There will be movement. The Tiffin waitlists for example are still moving- this will cause other movements. And there are always families doing last minute moves abroad etc.