I think 123 will be well above JMO qualification level, 2026 was nothing like 2025.
I gave a bit of feedback on last yrs Kangaroos in my DD's school all of which would have scored 100+ as yr7's in 2025 to qualify. They seemed to guess about 7. So if they answered 18, got say 15 correct, and pot luck answered 7/5 correct on the ones they guessed that would be around 16-17 in total. Remember too these students are now a year older.
Worst case if that 16-17 is split say 12 of the 5 pt questions plus 4 6pt questions that would be 84pts in total. Best case maybe 10 of the 5pt questions and 7 of the 6 pt questions that would be 92. So while I generally agreed with the 85 Kangaroo prediction the other day, perhaps 87/88 or so could be a bit closer.
In the years the Kangaroo has existed since 2015, in the 3 years the threshold has been 86-88 the Olympiad thresholds have been 105/107/113.
I think 20 questions correct will be enough for JMO, something like the range of 13 5 pt questions plus 7 6pt questions, or 12 5 pt questions plus 8 6pt questions, leading to 107-108. Maybe even a chance that 19 questions correct with a good 6pt heavily balance leading to 103 may be enough.
I just think, gut feeling, despite me quoting the previous years sub 105 is a bit more likely than 105+. The normal format in harder years always seemed to be an accessible 15 before ramping up but this year it was more like 5 before ramping up. For those in yr7 or less who achieved 100+ scores in 2025, and assumed they'd at least improve a few marks in 2026 it must have come as a shock. I know this happened to many on the IMC. there were fewer easy marks on offer.
I haven't looked through the paper or the solutions with my DD at all and don't really want to bring it up in the event she misses it. She lands where she lands. At the end of the day it may be a good thing if she drops down as she'll try harder for future exams.