Concerned about potential new school’s GCSE results

The bit that is tricky is consistency over time and your secondary seems to be poor over a number of years.

Our catchment secondary has had terrible results for a few years. The year before last it had a very similar negative progress 8 for high achievers as the OP’s and I have been desperate to avoid it. New head started a few years ago but this year’s results have shown a massive leap in progress so I’m a lot more reassured- something has clearly changed by the sheer jump in results. I still don’t love it but progress 8 is now positive and English/maths at 5 plus is now 55%. I would be very worried by the stats at your school unless there is a serious improvement plan in place.

Also P8 scores won't be produced for the next couple of years as the currentvYr20s and Yr11s didn't do Yr6 SATs

DDs normal state school has an average P8 of 0.64, with high achievers having a P8 of 0.73. So its not always true the high attainers don't get above average P8 scores.

Thats the trouble with Statistics though... you can manipulate them to prove your point.

So, my kids' school, which I rate very highly (and is Outstanding), has a Progress 8 of - 0.28 for the high achievers with 73% on 5+ Eng/ Maths. It's the only P8 in minus for the school so perhaps it's more difficult to get a high achiever P8 (there are only 30 children in that 'set' or if 174 in the year, which is statistically quite unreliable).

Also, "most of the measures published here, in December 2024, relate to students who completed key stage 4 in the summer of 2024" ie. A one-off year - might have been a bad year or a good year. They should do a rolling statistic averaging the last 5 years, if people are going to put so much weight on it. It's quite unreliable when you think about it!

For many schools the high prior attainment pupils will have the lowest P8 scores simply because it is much harder to over-achieve when your target grades are already so high.

That being said, this school would be a hard no for me. The P8 and results for high prior attainment pupils are indicative of serious weaknesses andI would not risk that for my children - regardless of how ‘bright’ they are.

The difference between a 5/6 and a 7 is the difference between being allowed to study a subject at A level and being prohibited. A p8 of -1.3 roughly equates to a lower than expected grade by 1.3 in EVERY subject taken at GCSE. That’s not trivial.

At the bottom of the page on the government data website there's an option for Results by Pupil Characteristics. Prior Attainment is an option there.

How do you check the Progress 8 of high achievers? I can't see that breakdown anywhere. Is it up to the school to publish?

OK, so that Ofsted is positive - it looks like the school is moving in the right direction. Might be worth talking to the school about how they are addressing the gaps identified, and whether they think that things are improving lower down the school (remember the results you quoted are from a cohort who started over 5 years ago, and who had significant school disruption due to Covid).

My DD1 was in a school like this for years 7 and 8. She entered as a high achiever, and after 2 years they predicted she’d get grade 5s and 6s in her GCSES. We took her out, and last year she got mainly grade 9s in her GCSEs. She’s much happier too as the behaviour at the first school was awful.

This.

But quality of education is the main event, all else is gravy…
Don’t touch it with a bargepole.

But you absolutely can look at the results the high prior achievers get. That should be the sign of the sort of school you're talking about, where they really push the high flyers despite overall results reflecting a more challenging intake.

My eldest's school has significant SEN provision so we get a much higher proportion of kids with EHCPs than usual which obviously has an impact on the overall results. Their Progress 8 is overall good but it's excellent for the high prior attainment kids - they really push them and support them.

The school OP is looking at is a school where the high prior achievement kids fare worse than the student body overall.

Honestly OP I don't think any job is worth this, particularly if your child is already part way through secondary. There must be other options for other jobs.

Bright kids might do fine whatever. But doesn’t sound like there will be many kids they’d want to be friends with.

My DC school have low results because of the area, but it's an outstanding school and I've been extremely impressed study the way they handle things. The 'high flyers' are really pushed and encouraged (anyone predicted above 6) and they have so many extra lessons to prep for GCSEs. They get fantastic grades for the few who work hard. My eldest went to a school with much better overall results but he didn't do that well because he was average in that school (he'd have been a high flyer in this one). So, you do need to look carefully at the school as well as results.

Gosh! Those results are truly awful. I’d expect 80% of high achievers to be getting a 7+, not scrapping a pass with grade 4.

How long are the waiting lists for the surrounding schools for the year group that you need?

Honestly. I think if this job is non-negotiable you need to be looking at a much longer commute for your DH with a better choice of schools, or you stay where you are and DH works away if that's possible.

I can't think of too many situations for which I'd be willing to throw my children's education under a bus like this.

Your DH's contention that bright children will do well anywhere is directly disproven by this school's results, where the majority of bright children do not do well. They massively underperform expectations.

What are your other options?

I wouldn't touch that school with a bargepole. Still not in the 'Good' category after over five years? Also the teaching and learning section of the Ofsted report is the most difficult to fix.
Add to that the dire Progress 8 score, that school wouldn't be good enough in my eyes. Keep looking.

I think it should be rather some bright children will do well anywhere. It depends what else is in their character other than academic aptitude. If they are likely to succumb to peer pressure in behaviour and attitude to learning then it might not be the best place for them. If they are self-motivated and stand alone then maybe it won't matter as much.

God that P8 for high prior attainment is grim. It makes it so clear that it's not just a school that's doing its best with a tough cohort, high achievers are actively going backwards compared to their peers at other schools and making even less progress. They're actively being dragged down to the school's (already poor) average.

Run as fast as you can. There must be other options.

Sorry OP, but I'm another one who doesn't subscribe to the 'bright child will do well anywhere' adage, and I wouldn't be sending my own DD to that school. That Progress 8 is terrible, and the more able pupils there are clearly not reaching their full potential.