Year 7 target GCSE grades

My DD's predicted grades in Y7 were way off what she actually achieved. 5 years is a long time in terms of the skills and knowledge your child will gain, not least the ability to revise and sit exams. It's a crazy system really. Talk to the school if you want some reassurance but try not to worry about it.

I wonder, do kids with average Sats scores go onto to get average GCSE's though because that's the expectation.

This might help a little in terms of understanding grades however remember that the grade boundaries change every year with every cohort so no matter how well some children do there will always be some children forced into the grade 3 or below categories.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/infographic-gcse-results-2024/infographics-for-gcse-results-2024-accessible

As an anecdotal story, Ds was "predicted" grade 4/5 for English language and grade 5/6 for maths based on his SATs. A combination of great teachers, really great teachers, parental input but not a huge amount , a good friendship group and a can do attitude saw Ds exceed his predicted grades. Not all learning takes place in a classroom and with teachers like @noblegiraffe and (not on this thread) MrsHamlet, LolaSmiles, Clary sharing resources on MN that helped me as a parent Ds got an 8 in English language and a 9 in maths, in fact he got more 9s than 8s.

You cannot decide a child's future grades at 11. The predicted grades Ds had didn't stop school or him going beyond that. Yes they couldn't change his predicted 7 up to a 9 for maths in their system even though he never got below 90% on all practise papers. The school's progress 8 is high and it is across the board from low ability prior attainment to high ability. It is partly why we chose the school.

We’re a bit further down the line - my son was Y6 during Covid so didn’t sit SATS but they did do Y7 entrance tests, the results of which were not shared with us. Subsequently in Y9 he’s been diagnosed and medicated for ADHD and assessed for extra time in exams. I do think we still have an issue with him languishing in third sets - school are quite happy he’s achieving his low targets, he’s ’top of his set’ so he thinks he’s fine but I think he’s still significantly underachieving for his actual potential in Y10. I’m sure his teachers are rolling their eyes as every parent thinks their child is marvellous and far from average. There is no other suitable state school, we are paying for additional tutoring but couldn’t afford to send him to private school. My older NT son has flown through the same school in top sets and got excellent results but I do think there is a real issue with DS2 being pigeonholed in Y7. The information on attainment from school is woeful - ‘ES’ for expected standard is as good as it gets, without any information if that’s heading for a 1, a 5 or a 9 at GCSE. They have to get 6+ at GCSE to be able to sit subjects at A level. I don’t know what else I can do but hope that mocks give him a reality check (they sit some this year that will be GCSE graded) that he needs to knuckle down and that it all comes together over the next 18 months.

If your dc does pass their GCSEs with 4s and 5s they can still get to university. BTechs are an alternative route that is just as valid as A levels.

Target grades are based on Y6 CATS. They are often over achieved - don't worry. They only really matter to the school as teachers' performance is judged on progress scores. Sometimes we get a student with a low target who is clearly going to exceed it by multiple grades and it's great because it balances those who have higher targets but perhaps have very low attendance etc and will struggle to meet them. Honestly don't worry.

Yes, I found these cat test predicted grades very odd. My son is predicted 5/6 in German, but he has never been taught it

A 4 is a C in old money.

7s, 4s and 1s have been benchmarked against the old system so the same number of children get those grades as before.

Schools have variations but generally the scaled SATS scores are split up into bands of about 5. 100 is the average score. In average, a pupil who scores under 99 will end up with a 3 or less, 105-106 will get a 5, 107-112 a 6 and so on. Some schools will add extra challenge and add a grade on, others will want to boost their P8 score so will give the lower targets. Remember, a 5 is a C in old money so a perfectly respectable pass. Plenty of children also leapfrog their targets - they are not set in stone!

If you want to understand whether your child is really "average" you could always specifically request the CAT scores from the school. If they are unwilling to share, you can do a subject access request and they will have to give them to you!

Computer generated target grades shouldn't be shared with parents, particularly not as early as Y7, that's batshit.

However it is worth bearing in mind that a kid who gets average SATs scores tends to go on to get average GCSE scores. Your points about extra time and medication could well make a difference though and the probability distribution for GCSE outcomes from those scores is quite widely spread.

To put things in context... 45% of teenagers will get a 5 (or higher) in both English and Maths. Newspapers (and Mumsnet!!!) Make it look like everyone gets a string of 8s and 9s. Its not true at all.

Secondary schools are measured on what is called progress 8.

This basically means that for each student a score is calculated based on a complicated measure which is for the purposes of this post is basically their best 8 GCSEs including English and maths.

They have a measure based on ks2 sats.

You then subtract them to get progress.

If the student has made normal progress you get 0. More than normal you get a positive number, less you get a negative.

All schools set target grades based on ks2 sats but they differ in how much progress they assume. A grammar would expect very strong positive progress and would set target grades based on this.

Very few schools will set targets of anything less than "normal" progress but some set very very high target grades.

It's always quite difficult with students who have either one very high score and one very low one, or have generally scores low in ks2 sats. This is because it might be because (for example) they moved to the country a year ago and their English still wasn't good. If they learn English well they can make amazing progress.

So... long story short you are best ignoring the target grades.

Yeah so they are extrapolating using published estimates of KS2-KS4 progress. Obviously these are averages for a population and i don't think particularly helpful on an individual level (I'm a school data manager).

I think they might help from a strategy perspective & to give teachers an idea of what a child might be capable of but I actually don't agree with sharing these with children/parents at this stage in secondary.

For me they are definitely more of a Y10/Y11 piece of data, especially as (hopefully!) by then targets will be adjusted given what they know about a child.

Not all schools do this though and just give the basic estimate (published estimates will be zero progress), some schools will add +1 grade to give a level of challenge, other schools will ignore it other than to say the target can't be less than this ceiling & individualise them.

I see, they SAY they can’t!

@OrtIrect
What do you mean schools can’t/ won’t share CATs? Of course they can!

They’re also dyslexic. The flight paths just put really low expectations on kids with SEND. Stops anyone having to try to raise their attainment, as that ‘all that’s expected’. Awful system.

Your DC's CAT scores are bang on average hence the 4/5 predicted grades. These can change.