How oversubscribed are your local schools? Will they be able to take on students who are currently privately-educated?

I think private schools are victims of their own greed. They kept increasing rates every year and a lot of parents had to adjust though no one was crying about it all over newspapers. I've read there was 55% increase in fees in the past 10 years.
Now it's the same group of squeezed parents who will have to leave. Labour's decision is just the last straw.

@Trikey not the most secure children though, they will probably be fine, especially sporty boys. It will be the children why are shy and insecure (and with less sharp elbowed parents - moving, online tutoring, appealing)

As I said, they cannot get the Etonians but they can get the bullied /undiagnosed SEN children of less wealthy- and probably overwhelmed parents.

i guess you have to celebrate where you think you have a win?

You're either not a very talented s-t stirrer or simply don't realize how applications work.
If school gets very popular every responsible parent within 20 miles distance will mention it as 1 of 6 in their application. It's not uncommon for a sought-after secondary to receive over 1600 applications for 180-240 places. Obviously all those applications can not be satisfied and parents will have to accept place in their local area.
There's no lack of secondary school places in Ealing and around.

My dc's school has waiting lists so there's not even room for a little budge. One student needs to leave before another one on top of the waitlist can start at his state school.

When the VAT gets added and even if a few pupils end up going to state due to being unaffordable, there is still no guarantee that many private schools will survive in this climate. I know 3 private schools completely shut down nearby in the last 2/3 years for simply losing a few students due to covid times and hybrid working where families moved away and then I guess some other reasons but the whole school completely closed which meant 400 pupils between reception-yr 3 and reception-yr 6 had to find either alternative private schools or state schools in 3 months. So there is also a risk that families who can afford can suddenly find out that their lo's school is no longer existent which means they will have to go on waitlists for other surviving private schools and then state schools.

My dc got a place at a highly sought out state school and then a popular private school. Despite being able to afford private, I chose the state route after his nursery shut down which was attached to a prep school especially when the talks about vat being added since last year made me think twice as I saw how stressful it was for parents trying to apply for other schools.

I think many private school parents will opt for online schools and tutoring rather than send their children to an 'inadequate' school.
Can you imagine the bullying and jeering a private school child is likely to face from certain groups of children? Through no fault of their own. The gleeful spite shown on here by adults enjoying the fact that children will face huge disruption to their education will be replicated by children en masse.

I am (like everyone else) getting fed up with these threads but the last few posts pulls this together nicely. .

so, in terms of the schools, this won’t impact Eton/Winchester - they are fine - but it will impact the marginal schools, with lower fees who are borderline. So the weakest schools.

in terms of parents, it won’t impact the wealthy (many will move abroad anyway due to non-dom taxes and general taxation). It will impact those who are borderline and putting every penny toward school fees. So the financially weakest parents.

in terms of children who have to move, it won’t impact the intelligent, well adjusted children, they will thrive everywhere. It will impact children with undiagnosed SEN, they ones who are shy and easily bullied, so the weakest children.

genius!

I really think an influx of children from private schools could really help turn these schools around and make a better education for all children, not just those whose parents had the money/inclination to send them to private school.

Schools benefit from a mix of kids/parenting types and a different mix could attract more teachers and other parents to those schools that could make all the difference.

We applied to our local “outstanding” popular state secondary, that was closest to us - put it is so oversubscribed that we haven’t been offered a place even now nearing the end of year 7 - but actually the school we did get has a less good reputation, but it’s based on prejudice and where the school is located. My son has received tremendous support there and I wouldn’t move him now even if a place did come up at the popular one.

Even schools rated Inadequate have dedicated staff wanting to make a positive difference to children’s lives so I actually think more kids coming into the state system is a good thing and there are the places for them - they may just have to accept it’s not the school with the best rep.

Anecdotally at secondary year 10 there are lots of places but only in the least good state school. The popular ones are full. I know because my friend has had to move her Dd from private school suddenly so has trodden this path. She will take the worst state school place.

I live in a grammar area, only one private school within 15-20 miles and it's known for taking the children not bright enough to get into the grammars even with a lot of private tutoring, who have wealthy parents, so I don't think it'll make much difference here.
What is interesting is that the grammars have a two level entry system, so if you live within qualifying postcodes (not wealthy ones, with some having high levels of socioeconomic deprivation) you just need to pass the 11+ the pass mark isn't exceptionally high. If you live out of priority catchment (in the richer less diverse bits) you apply for the spaces not taken by local children and have to generally score in the top 5% to be offered a place.

And private school kids will finally have some real completion around school places for grammar. They will finally realise money carnt buy intelligence.

Sw6 - our primary is at 50% capacity but it will be too diverse for many, 2 closest faith schools that are go to for white parents are at 80% capacity as well. No problem to get a secondary school place either.
In fact I don't know any area in SW London where any child was left without a primary or secondary school place.

There are some really bright kids in state schools who don't require tutors to get into grammar schools. Many kids are naturally bright, even more so than private kids, shock horror I know this is a shock to you 🙄😆😏

I don't think people are saying that state school parents don't care. But primary schools are done by catchment area. If you can't afford to live next to the best schools you can't go there. It's not realistic to think there will be no impact. It will hurt the poorer families being priced out of such areas. Or families who can't afford the tutoring fees to get into grammar schools. Grammar and selective schools will just get more competitive and it will just be a competition on who can spend most on tutors!

Agreed. Many state school parents actually care about their children’s education as well, so won’t sit idly by whilst other parents try and swoop in to take school places.

They will be ranked on the schools' waiting lists according to the oversubscription criteria for the individual school. So some will enter the list near / at the top for whichever school, just like any other applicant may. It still won't get them a place if none exists, though.

Exactly. People who seem to think they will get into the best state schools, or go on a waiting list and expect a place to suddenly became available are quite frankly kidding themselves

Some are oversubscribed, others have spaces. So there will be space for children moving over to state in September. Just not at the preferred schools.

For the people who will swap to state for 6th form. Round here priority is given to students already in the school. For 6th form colleges priority is given to students already in the academy trust. So good luck with that, you'll need it if all places are taken with existing pupils

We'll be prepared to wait years then 😆 people don't just leave the best state schools. And if they do their will be loads of people on the waiting list before you.

understand that but they will just wait til there are spaces in the best state school. They will just pay the extra VAT temporarily until spaces in their desired school comes up. Thus, still pushing out lower income families to the best state schools who wont be able to afford the housing within catchment areas.

It doesn't seem to be a problem around here. In the 3 state high schools my kids have attended, 2 have spaces.

Most of the private kids near me transfer to a big state college for 6th form

In a nearby town a primary is closing because there aren't enough kids.

That won't work for in year applications. If there's no school place they will be offered the next closest school with places. If they reject that school the lea have done their job they will have to go to the bottom of the waiting list like everybody else.

why only Y7?

That actually works out at slightly under the national average then. There are parts of London where 30%+ are in private and Edinburgh has a quarter of pupils in private. In London, the geographical areas are probably pretty small though.

Some of the biggest issues with this policy are actually going to be for state school parents

I'm actually crying at that! I think by far the biggest problem is people with plenty of money having to pay a bit more for the luxury they have. Good forbid they can't have that new jag or holiday in the maldives.

My friend's son is privately educated. They are not 'wealthy' by any means but they have enough to pay the VAT and guess what: they are OK with paying it because they think it's fair! They have a very simple life, small house, an old car, no flash holidays.