How oversubscribed are your local schools? Will they be able to take on students who are currently privately-educated?

Of course it will lead to an improvement in state schools if Labour follow their plans for greater investment in the state sector and more teachers.
I was teaching before and after 97, and believe me, the impact on state education was significant.

You're right, ghettoisation was completely the wrong word to use - sorry, written in haste. The right phrase would have been economic disparity. I stand by the idea. There was an interview recently with a doctor who was saying that she only lived and worked where she did because of a good local private school. If VAT comes in, she'll move area to somewhere the state schools are good. So the more deprived area loses her skills and her wealth. Over time, if the private school sector dwindles, then I do think that will lead to greater economic disparity between areas with good schools and areas with less good schools. Unless of course Labour's policy suddenly leads to a big improvement in the quality of state schools, which I seriously doubt.

They can't afford an extra five grand on fees, but they'll be able to afford a more expensive house + solicitors' and mortgage fees, removals & decorating costs (the average of which is, according to Halifax, twelve grand)?

@NeverDropYourMooncup you are looking at it from the wrong angle. The increase of 20 percent will drive only a small number of children that already are in private schools to the state schools. But it will greatly affect Y7 choices.
And yes, parents prefer to spend money on solicitor and tax rather than a lot of money on private. Especially, that a morgage in a great school area is a good investment.

Here were I live people move in y3 ,y4 y5 to get into the catchment. It drives property prices up the roof. Investing in a house is an investment that will return when they sell the house, and private school is 150 k spent.
I am afraid it will drive the house prices even higher up

@Sirine1708 and @NeverDropYourMooncup absolutely spot on.

They can't afford an extra five grand on fees, but they'll be able to afford a more expensive house + solicitors' and mortgage fees, removals & decorating costs (the average of which is, according to Halifax, twelve grand)?

And the 'loss' of them to the area - which would already be a 'nice' one to have had them there in the first place - would cause it to become a Ghetto, with all of the negative and frankly racist/Anti-Semitic connotations that phrase carries outside an A-Level Sociology lesson?

@potionsmaster it's like house prices will drop dramatically say from 1mln too 700k and all the scum in the area will be able to afford it? :)) oh what a ghetto.

There is also a risk that, over time, this leads to more ghettoisation of areas rather than less. If you have a couple of good private schools in an area with poor state schools, then those private schools help attract money into the area. If those private schools ultimately close, then wealthier families are likely to gradually stop living in those areas. I'm not claimimg that this is is going to have a sudden or dramatic impact. But - particularly in more rural areas - there's no doubt that the existence of good private schools 'allows' wealthier and more aspirational families to live locally, and also provides significant employment. This might not benefit the local state schools specifically - but it does benefit the local economy. Those rather gleefully claiming that private school parents forced out of private will have to accept schools they 'might not like' - in many cases, certainly in the longer term, they won't - they'll move.

...or build new schools. Where I live there is no capacity for extra classes. Schools are massively oversubscribed.

a few specific areas may need to create extra classes

Exactly

How many areas? How many places? How quickly? How much building land is available in those places? Who pays?

This isn’t a little problem in the areas that are affected

Tiffin boys fell from Outstanding to Good last year + 2013 year had lower no of kids population than previous years.

I heard a hearsay about Tiffin girls that the no of applications was more than ever.

I think that tax will impact the no of candidates to any grammar

I've listened to the fact check on this and there are sufficient places overall to absorb every British resident currently at a private school, a few specific areas may need to create extra classes but most areas have spaces within their lea area to absorb. The parents might not like the schools on offer but there is space.

but no one would be turned down a placement

Because that is the law. Councils have a duty to provide school places for all who apply. It doesn't mean they're awash with spare places.

There will be localities where there are difficulties. The national trend of falling rolls does not apply evenly across the entire country

@TheChipmunkSong applications number from tiffin website and waitlist movement from 11+ forum.
I have a feeling that parents who can't afford 20% increase will not decline Tiffin's place for 2024/25.

Because 20 perc tax was not imposed yet. And where do you have data from? I heard something opposite

@TheChipmunkSong Tiffin this year had the same amount of applications as usual, the only difference this year is fewer people from waiting list getting in.

I doubt that people will massively move children from private to state due to 20% of tax increase. The private schools will also try to remedy it by not giving as many bursaries but helping families who cannot afford an additional 20%

However, an additional 20% on top of fees as it is now, WILL impact the number of children who join in Y7. I know quite a few parents who were very much hesitating and for them, private education was on the verge of affordability.
As a result, there will be even more candidates for grammar schools and people will be moving to the areas where the state schools are good, driving at the same time property prices up.

If the state system will absorb it?... yes, as there are many undersubscribed schools, I think it will need to build new schools in few places or expand the existing ones in some areas like my borough.

@TheChipmunkSong interesting. However, I will reserve judgement as this still doesn’t show that the increase in numbers is all the result of international students. It will be an interesting few months but I don’t think we will know the real impact of the policy until at least 12 months after it’s implemented.

https://studytravel.network/magazine/news/0/30626#:~:text=International%20students%20accounted%20for%204.7,census%2C%20the%202024%20data%20shows.

There was a drop in pupils from China but now it is growing again.

If Labour get in, and do actually go through with this (I strongly doubt it personally), it will make private schools even more elitist than they already are.

@TheChipmunkSong that article is over 3 years old and is not relevant in this context - as private schools have always had international students going back many many many years. So the point remains - until you can give me updated statistics to show the rise discussed in the article I posted is only down to international students.

The number of pupils in private schools is raising but not from UK kids. Foregin children.
https://monitor.icef.com/2019/05/one-third-of-foreign-students-in-british-independent-schools-come-from-europe/

Does not look like this policy is going to make that much of a difference. The impact to private schools and state schools will most likely be small. Number of private school pupils rises despite claims families priced out by Labour’s VAT plan | Private schools | The Guardian

@HooverIsAlwaysBroken I don't think this policy is about fairness, it's just Labours trying to get sympathy from their base without extra spendings.
VAT on private healthcare would allow their competitors to accuse them of increasing NHS waitlists and everyone is very sensitive about it right now.
On a personal level I don't think it's fair for high earners to pay tens or hundred of thousands in taxes and still having to rely on private healthcare in a "1st world country" and Labours definitely not the ones who are going to fix it.

@Sirine1708 so following this argument through, it is ok if wealthy people survive and poor people die (cancer treatment) but it is not ok that wealthy people send their children to independent schools?