How oversubscribed are your local schools? Will they be able to take on students who are currently privately-educated?

There's much more pupils in faith schools in the UK than in private schools, but nothing will be done about it.

Because they are state run just as comprehensive schools? How do you imagine taxing state schools :))?

And local kids have no chances to get into the good ones at secondary level.

In the same was as many local kids have no chances to get to superselective state grammar schools

Well nobody stops them from learning day and night to pass 11+ or becoming Catholic

Nobody stops kids to get to the top performing comprehensive schools. Well or maybe property market does

There are other variables than fath schools: grammar, property prices. All of that are the reason for segregation

That's because the state doesn't own VA schools.

They are essentially church schools currently running in co-operation with the state system (which so many of them pre-dated). They're not national assets being allowed a faith character. It's the other way round.

The country simply doesn't have the money available to impose a compulsory purchase scheme at fair market value, or to buy land and build other schools so it could then withdraw from the current arrangements with enough places in other schools.

There's much more pupils in faith schools in the UK than in private schools, but nothing will be done about it. And local kids have no chances to get into the good ones at secondary level.

So it's hypocritical of Rachel Reeves to say that they're going to fight segregation but not mention faith schools.

https://ffteducationdatalab.org.uk/2022/07/faith-schools-and-academisation/

It's not as straightforward as if a school folds no VAT is raised. Very location dependent, but for instance Alton recently folded most of the pupils were accommodated in other independent schools. I'm sure some went to state. Obviously some areas there us just one independent school.

If 10% leaving causes the school in question to fold, that's £0 received in VAT, and £6,000,000 cost to educate the thousand DC

We have no idea whether schools would fold. But a precipitate drop of 10% could cause significant difficulty to some. And it would be the result of a tipping point, which would not necessarily be 10% (I'm using that only as an example as it was where the previous worked examples cease)

But I agree with the premise of other posters that it's not an outflow in the immediate aftermath that will be the issue. It will be those who decide to withdraw their DC at the next natural break point, or not enter the private system at all. So the full impact will take 3-5 years from introduction to be seen (period between natural break points)

Those parents will be entering the admissions rounds at the normal times, and will have had the time to work out the system, and genuinely move house.

The demographic changes on which the rhetoric of "there will be enough places" does not fall evenly across the country, and the cities most likely to be affected are also those where there just isn't the space to build more classrooms (at all, let alone in the timeframe that matches)

It's going to be bumpy, and in places where there is low demographic decline and a high proportion in private school, it's going to be a difficult time - including for state school parents who will be displaced from the school they might otherwise have expected had distances offered not been affected by higher number of applications and people deliberately moving as close to the school they want as possible. It is quite likely this would start to happen as soon as the next admissions rounds.

My local schools are over subscribed in mainstream, grammar is full and special educational need schools. I think it's due to the over development of the area. They keep building houses and not allowing for school provision. It's been the same for years.

As for the local grammar they have a huge waiting list of candidates that have passed. Special need schools are full and parents I know are having to go to appeal panels. I guess the good thing in this plan is it won't impact the home educated (will it?)

If this is the plan I'm unsure wheee they will build more classrooms where I live. They don't have the room. It's been mentioned before by the primaries and secondary.

Or maybe they can just take over the private school?

I do know friends whose children go to private but have scholarships. They aren't middle class, they are working class and this increase will impact them. I also have a couple of friends who have sent children that have SEN due to not having the right provision in the area.

I do think if anything more SEN schools need to be provided as it would mean they have more space in mainstream. Some children are being taught in separate classrooms in my DD's mainstream as they can't manage the day to day classes/schedule:movement etc.

For you history for me reality and experience.

@TheChipmunkSong thanks for the history lesson!😜

as the history of Eastern Europe shows the great lefty idea doesn't work in practice because human consciousness is not evolved to avoid corruption.A generated by greed scarcity is a problem

@TheChipmunkSong @Seasaltlady 😂😂😂I'm sorry I'm just a radical lefty and I just can't help myself! 😂

Nor do we tbh…..

well you want to eradicate the capitalism lol

Property prices are a different issue in my opinion, yes it’s linked to schools but much more complex.

If we want to avoid segregation then we need to get rid of private schools altogether but that’s a whole new thread which I have not got the time for 😂

That might not necessarily be a bad thing, maybe they will be more invested in improving the state sector.

in what way? they will stimulate further segregation by driving the property market up the roof e.g in my borough

Not at all, our eldest son is in a class that was 12 at start of year and is 16 at the end of it.

A very good school too. It's just a shame that under those fuckwits in the Tory government young families have been priced out for miles around. The average age of parents in a reception class must be early 40s, and that includes a fair few in their 50s.

@TheChipmunkSong "Fewer parents of Y6 will decide on private—the middle class. Not the very affluent people but middle class that hesitate"

That might not necessarily be a bad thing, maybe they will be more invested in improving the state sector.

And the government should be investing in new state schools / upgrading schools especially given the RAAC scandal

splendid but what has that got to do with what I have written?

The rising cost of living + job insecurity ( job market is awful) + not rising salaries are not added to your equation. Uncertainty of the economy is a huge component

Fewer parents of Y6 will decide on private—the middle class. Not the very affluent people but middle class that hesitate

also the gov will have to invest in school expansions to accommodate the kids

Lots of people send their children private all the way from reception to 16, so yes I think people might 'pull' their children out if they thought they couldn't afford the additional costs as a result of VAT. But my point here is that often private school parents have to plan this years in advance and as I said I doubt this policy will have that much of an impact - especially when you add in decreasing birth rate. As I said let's see where we are in 12 months.. who knows anything could happen, Labour might not get that massive majority, although I doubt it.

OK then, let's do the maffs. I'm using example figures, rather than the specific amount being funded via GAG, as this varies at key stage, level of deprivation and location (plus many other factors in the NFF). The minimum amount for 2023-24 was a smidge under £6k per pupil.

1000 parents of children at private school paying £20k annually.

VAT comes in for September 2025. They therefore need to pay £24000. This would represent 1000 x £4000 = £4,000,000

10 of those parents move to state instead (1%). The tax received is therefore 990 x £4,000 = £3,960,000

The amount paid per child is (just under) £6000. They therefore cost the DfE £60,000 to educate in a standard school.

Net gain from introducing VAT is therefore £3,960,00 - £60,000 = £3,900,000.

If 10% leave (so 100 children), that's 900 x £4000 = £3,600,000.

The amount paid is £6000. They therefore cost the DfE £600,000 to educate in a standard school.

The Government's still three mil up on the deal, as they're getting a net of £3,600,000 - £600,000 = £3,000,000.

@AbsintheAndChips
No, not this year, a few years back. I was just pointing out that historically you might well have been offered Twickenham even if you didn't put it down and even if you listed six other schools that you were nearer to/had a chance of getting into.

Then you are correct then, Until recently Twickenham was the undersubscribed "overflow" school where all Richmond kids who didn't get a place among their preferences found a place.
But something changed this year and Twickenham has a waiting list. There are no undersubscribed schools at all now in our borough. It is really worrying as all schools ate meeting or exceeding PAN

@northernerinthesouth2000

The data for the girls is also available on their website if you're that interested.
Please provide the link to that specific data. Thanks in advance

I am aware that the VAT has not been imposed yet - how could I not be with all these threads on MN with people getting their knickers in a twist about it.
Of course you do but it is relevant to my earlier post. I said that there will be increase in applicants to grammar schools as a result of putting VAT on private. And in response I hear that there is no more applicants than previous years. And my answer to it is: The VAT has not been imposed yet and Labour has not won yet. We will see the no of applicants after VAT comes. So it may be not in 2024/ exams as the registration is like now...

pull them out because they suddenly can't afford it

Did I mention anywhere pulling out? We are talking about Y7 choices. And I know many parents who planned to go private but decided otherwise because of the rising cost of living and private school prices going up

It is extremely vindictive and the fact that they are being so vague about it and only insinuating that they will implement it asap (as if punishing private school parents and upheaving so many young children is the most important time sensitive issue in the country!) just shows how nasty their politics of envy can get!

@TheChipmunkSong No, not this year, a few years back. I was just pointing out that historically you might well have been offered Twickenham even if you didn't put it down and even if you listed six other schools that you were nearer to/had a chance of getting into. The people I know of at DD's primary had not listed Twickenham mainly because it was miles away and an awkward journey for them. They had all put down six other schools. Some were made offers on NOD and some (those further away) were not. It definitely wasn't the case as @NeverDropYourMooncup suggested that they had only put down super popular schools a long way away or only put down one highly unrealistic school.

If that is not happening this year, it suggests schools are considerably fuller than a few years ago so the normal process by which it all filters through and everyone ends up with a place in the end may be a lot longer and more difficult. It's not hard to see that in a borough which relies on 25% of children being privately educated and with less than 5% empty spaces may run into difficulties.

Also, 'all preferences met' doesn't necessarily mean the school is full. This is what it always used to say for DD's primary which used to be very unpopular and usually was not full even at the start of reception year (things are different now and it has developed a waiting list like lots of other primaries). What it means is that everyone who put it down was offered a place. The school might also be full as a result of other people being allocated to it, but not necessarily.

@TheChipmunkSong I am aware that the VAT has not been imposed yet - how could I not be with all these threads on MN with people getting their knickers in a twist about it.

I was responding to a post you made earlier.

The data for the girls is also available on their website if you're that interested. And yes I know they are not only grammars...People who send their children private plan in advance, years in advance, they don't send their children for one term and then pull them out because they suddenly can't afford it etc. - of course there will be the occasional exception but on the whole they plan! Hence, with most people agreeing that Labour will get in, I believe you would have started to see an impact, if there was going to be one. It will be very small if any at all. Let's see where we are in 12 months time.

what has that got to do with what I said?

I will repeat: the TAX has not been imposed yet and Labour has not won yet. The impact of 20 perc VAT will be visible once it is implemented. Also, Tiffin is not the only grammar in UK

It is in Tiffin Boys that was the same number of applicants. I have not found data for Tiffin Girls