Will catchment shrill by due to VAT or am I overthinking

There are so many variables that the impact will be likely to be very different in different areas. Your example shows an expanding catchment, likely correlated to declining numbers in the cohorts transferring to the secondary phase. Keep an eye on how the PAN and oversubscription criteria changes over time, some schools have latent capacity so could potentially increase their PAN if needed.

Interested you mention class, what will matter is whether people choose to pay the fees, working class people use independent schools too. Lots of parents target alternative state options such as uber selective grammars, faith schools, schools which select partially on aptitude (e.g. languages, musical), and those that use fair banding tests (perhaps with an earlier deadline or more motivated parents to take children to the test - look at FSM rates).

@OhCrumbsWhereNow I wonder whether Labour have.

I bet Labour will also say in the first year how much has been saved (without explaining how state school funding is lagged so the first year will look better). Never mind the budget stretched state schools trying to cope with additional pupils and no funding for them

Have you factored in all the schools reclaiming VAT for the last 8 years for capital building projects and everything else they have to pay it on?

I’m not sure. I know that you can get a receipt on goods to reclaim VAT if you are travelling, but the goods are going back to your home country then.

Tourists can’t reclaim VAT paid on meals eaten here, for example, and the education would be “consumed” here as a service.

@SheilaFentiman yes. Didn't know whether there was a loophole for them

Do you mean overseas parents might be able to claim VAT on education back?

I was wondering whether they would be able to claim the VAT back if it was charged @SheilaFentiman

My understanding is that boarding isn’t education, and therefore the boarding elements may not be VATable.

true, and the kids who do drop out of the private system will disproportionately be from the cheaper schools, next to none from e.g. expensive boarding schools, so the 20% vat will be getting earned on a slightly higher average fee rate than the current average.

@SheilaFentiman

Not all policies carry the same risk. Many are small, many changes to education policy are or should be backed by academic studies, some are introduced by pilot schemes, etc. It’s not really possible to generalise and that wasn’t the gist of my post.

In relation to the proposed new VAT on private school fees, the outcome is unknown and untested, and it is being introduced wholesale for political reasons. The impact will be a social one as many families may need to move their children to different schools. In relation to the OP’s post, I don’t know how it will impact catchment. Where I live, I expect there will be quite a big impact because the families sending their children to the local private schools are not rich but more of the squeezed middle types. I feel it’s all a big experiment and am concerned about that. What makes me angry is that I feel it is politically motivated. Taxing education doesn’t make sense and I am concerned about the many hidden implications (not least for those who send their children to private schools for SEN support, thus taking the burden off the state sector).

However you don’t have to agree with me, we are all entitled to different opinions and debate on this topic is surely a good thing.

Worth remembering that not every private school pupil is even resident in the UK - many are boarders from overseas. Those pupils will never be going to a local state school in the UK.

You are furious with Labour because their policy (agree, it is a tax policy) will impact education and use “our children” as Guinea pigs.

All policies relating to education have some group of “our children” as Guinea pigs.

Hence, my post.

@SheilaFentiman obviously my post does not mean that education policy should never be changed. I don’t think there was anything in my post indicating that is what I meant.

Additionally, this is a tax levy, not a change in education policy. It is a tax policy that could be implemented in a staged way, if they are set on it, rather than with immediate wholesale implementation.

It is highly area dependent - can you say where you are? If you’re somewhere with good transport links to several private schools (or somewhere to which the private schools run a coach service), the impact is likely to be more significant. Bear in mind a lot of private school pupils will commute for up to an hour, sometimes longer.

Having said that, because it’s so localised I think it’s going to be really hard to predict and councils will inevitably be playing catch up if it turns out there is much higher demand for state school places than expected. It’s not just about movement from existing schools, but also whether you have a private school locally that might close completely. There are some posters who look at the accounts at Companies House for schools, to try and work which are financially vulnerable, so that could also be a clue.

Crossing my fingers it all works out well for you, OP.

Your 32,000 includes all nurseries etc. There are around 4000 secondary schools.

The logical upshot of this statement is that no one should ever change education policy as that is always “using our children as Guinea pigs”

Is that what you mean?

I don't think it will make the slightest difference. The Tories are very good at s are tactics.

OP, I don’t know but I’m furious with Labour for tinkering with this and using our children as the guinea pigs. In truth no one really knows what the impact will be.

Secondary schools are not being hit by falling birth rate in the same way as Primaries are at the moment. In fact many Secondaries have some bulge years

I think what people are forgetting, when they merrily claim parents will find the money, is that for some private schools just about holding on with falling numbers on the roll, a handful of families leaving will sink the entire school. Often, these will be the smaller, cheaper schools. If a school goes under, that local area will see an influx into the surrounding state schools.

It won't affect the country in a homogeneous way. You need to look at the educational facilities in your local area, and assess on that basis. I suspect London will be hit hard. Rural areas less so.

Where I live the current Year 6s is a “boom year” (apparently caused by 50 Shades of Grey) whilst the current Year 5s is a smaller year.

This was played out with primary admissions for my kids’ primary school:-

Normal is All Catchment, All Sibling, Few on distance
Year 6 was All Catchment, Few Sibling
Year 5 was everyone got in and still only 88 out of 90 places filled.

I teach in a very middle class area.
We are a one form primary school, we have had 4 families join us from the local private school this year and no families leave for it.
On an average year we have 1 family arrive and 1 or 2 leave.

Also to add the fact that this is unlikely to be parents having to move their child in isolation there will be some strength in numbers which would make a move to a new school easier for new pupils. In addition remember also some private schools will definitely close down if the threshold of parents unable to take the hit on VAT means cash flow trouble for the school. It doesn’t take many parents for that to be the case.

It really depends on the concentration of private schools in the area. Where I am it will absolutely impact the local schools because the private schools are just the professionals trying to do the best for their kids and there are 30 % pupils private school uptake Certainly not the schools that spring to mind that have cash to burn like eton/ harrow etc . Multiple parents have already signed their kids up for the local schools in their area. Having said that if you only have a small number of private schools and plenty of local schools to scoop up the flux it should be manageable. To the poster who said people will manage… some really really won’t. The sacrifices for many are already being stretched to the max to afford it. On the flip side it might be a blessed relief to some to not have to struggle to pay the fees anymore. Money for property instead or more in the pension pot perhaps.

I don't see why one third not passing would have any bearing on mc sending their kids there. Because they'll assume that unless their child has learning difficulties they'll be in the top two thirds surely?