In a school catchment blind spot

What happens if there are more children in the defined catchment than there are places at the school? If that's the case, the same situation arises.

In our area, people would simply move into the defined catchment of the most popular schools, and the schools would soon be oversubscribed again.

Anyone looking at private schools now needs to factor into their calculations future VAT on fees . It seems pretty certain that is the way things are going.

In our area they have defined catchments, not just distance, to prevent this blackspot issue. Could you contact your LA and ask/lobby for that?

The local authority in question clearly has one school that is not fully subscribed so, technically, they don't need to do anything.

If the undersubscribed school gains the confidence of local families, and fills up with children living closer, that will increase the pressure on the council to provide more places.

However, my borough meets the OP's description and, if that's the case, the council is trying to open a new school, but is being blocked by objections from local campaigners. Part of the campaigners' argument is that the places aren't needed.

It's not quite as stark as that. With a house move, aside from the moving costs element, you are building capital with a more expensive property. With school fees there is no direct financial return.

Just a tiny thought.
IIRC the 'distance of last child' is published twice- once on offers day, and then again later in the year once everyone has worked out where they are going. Have you looked at the offers day stat for Sep 24 to see if it is further distance than the offers day stat for Sep 23? That would tell you if it's generally growing or shrinking (round here in London they are mainly growing due to demographic shifts).

Yes and then you get penalised for trying to do the best for your child by being potentially hit with VAT on school fees 🙄.

Our option were either to move (approx 150K) or go private (approx 70K). We chose private.

The Local Authority has, I think, a duty to review this. One school seems to need more space and revised catchment to go with it. When housing is large estates, they should plan for new schools. Now schools are academies, it’s more complex though.

Its why some areas have fixed priority areas. Ours goes out 5 miles in one direction, but less than a mile in another. Without it, the furthest village wouldn't be close enough to any schools, whereas the town children would be able to pick and chose. Theres still grumbling from those just outside the catchment, but its fairer.

We have this at the other end of the village. Bus ride past the school the DC don’t make it into to a school 15 miles away. Lots of appeals.

Check if that's offer day distance - if it is the reality may be further out due to waiting list places.

@Jazzybeat if it's a borough beginning with R and the school you want to avoid begins with TS, give it another look. The reality is far better than it's reputation.

Visit the undersubscribed school during the day if you can and make up your own mind. We’ve had this in our local area and in recent years the less desirable schools have become excellent with more money for facilities, very involved ptas etc. go with an open mind and if you get it you might be very happy with it?

Good news is the currently yr7and 8 were the height of the baby boom. This years admission distance might be more hopeful.

Read the admissions policies for 25/26 - any changes from 24/25? Look at the allocations for September 2024. If you are prepared to travel, look wider and over the county border, schools will not always highlight when they are struggling to recruit through demographic changes in case parents worry the educational offer has declined when it hasn’t. Check Ofsted reports, previously struggling schools may have been taken over by a trust and improved. Think outside the box, if you are in a two tier area, you may find vacancies in Yr. 7 in good / outstanding middle schools nearby, e.g. children may leave early for grammar schools nearby.

I think people move realistically. You could hope for a low birth year, but its risky.

These blind spots seem to popping up with all the house building etc.

I think I'd move rather then bus my child off to a sink school.