How much do grades typically improve between mocks and GCSEs?

As I understand it it's like a clearing process. So some students who chose certain subjects won't have got good enough grades to accept their place will be trying to get other subjects, or will accept a place elsewhere, so these space become free. We're hoping DS will get at least 5 offers from the 6 applications he's made but he'll only accept one once he has his results. So the other offers become available. The logistics of this process make my headache!

I thought the deadline for exam entries was February - is that not correct?

If he gets below a 4 on a higher I think it's a fail.
If he put zero effort in then it's possible that with 4 months of effort he can go up by two grades.
They don't decide on which tier the kids are taking until quite some time yet, ask his teacher if he can do a practice mock higher paper in march and see if they'll decide after then.
Ds got a 4 in Arabic on the higher paper in November mocks, he's doing a foundation and another higher paper this Friday to see if there's improvement, his teacher said he can carry on practicing until mid march before they'll make a definite decision on which to put him in for.

Yes there is usually flexibility. Dd started with music A level and switched after a week of yr 12.

Of course more popular a levels may not have space. But there is a lot of juggling on results day - pls don’t worry op. 6s and 7s are fine.

There's no set formula imo. My son is bright but lazy..went from a 2 to 7.

My second son got a ungraded on his higher maths, so praying a similar miracle. Or resitting the lower paper. I didn't get A* and still walked a stem degree. I failed maths and English. English twice due to dyslexia. I still had decades working fir global IT company as a programmer.

I don't know about the number grades, but I got a U in my mock and a B in my real GCSE. I was just struggling so my parents got me a tutor and swapped my maths teacher. I myself am a Primary teacher so no experience teaching GCSE but I've taught SATs and I've seen some amazing progress. You just need to really help and support him in revising and making progress now.

Over the years I have had many parents complain FT would limit their child. Honestly there is no way your kids teacher will suggest FT if there is the slightest chance they might get a 6.
As others have said FT science papers are much more accessible, miss out a lot of the harder content and in the future no one will know or care whether it is a FT or HT 4 or 5.
Last couple of years we have had two exceptionally pushy parents who insisted their kids were “better” than FT 😳, they both ended up with Us, whereas their peers who took our advice to move tiers got passes.

Also an MFL teacher: in my 30 years of teaching, the majority improve by one grade but at the same time have seen bigger improvements and seen lower grades! Re: tiers, remember on their certificates it doesn’t say foundation or higher and certainly in MFL a grade 4 or 5 at foundation is easier for the candidate who us borderline foundation or higher. Whatever A levels your child chooses, minimum of grade 6 and above at GCSE in those subjects, otherwise they won’t cope at A levels: massive jump to A level.
loads of past papers!
my own son increased by one grade in most subjects: his maths however went from a grade 4 in the mock to a grade 7 in the real thing. His teacher, who was just amazing, put on breakfast classes/ after schools: he attended them all including those the head of department put on. Any sessions your child’s teachers put on, make sure he attends.
He’s now in his second year of Uni just loving life and GCSEs seem years ago! Infact will graduate in 2025!
I hope that helps.

This was many years ago now, when GCSEs were A and Bs etc not 1-9.

I was similar to your son didn't put loads of work in around test exams (not sure they were actual mocks).

I was decent at Maths, buy my Physics teacher said he was going to enter me into the Foundation Paper. To this day I am not sure if he worked me out mentally and knew how stubbborn I was and hated people telling me I couldn't do things. Either way it worked.

I stayed late in school and did extra lessons with him he was offering (with some others), and ended up getting an A.

So I think if your son is good at Maths it's possible, but he will need to be movivated to work.

If he's not looking to do it at A-Level, and wants to focus more on other subjects, then the foundation paper might make sense. As others have said, it should be 'easier' to get a 5 on the foundation than the higher paper.

A question of time / effort and priorities is how I would look at this.

Good luck!

I'm a teacher of MFL. I have known kids go from a 3 in the mocks to a 6 in the real thing. That only works for the bright but slightly 'laid-back' brigade who suddenly decide to do some work between mocks and real things, but it's definitely doable. If they keep plodding along I'd expect an increase of a grade or two at most.

My DS did no work and basically "failed" all his GCSEs. Less than C in everything (sorry don't know the hew money!). V low grades. We did LOADS of work on revision, how to revise, exam technique, how to answer the questions, practice papers etc etc and he came out with all A* to B. So his jump was huge.

He is ASC and ADHD though but very bright so he knew and understood all the content pretty much. His main issue was with not understanding how to revise, not understanding the benefit of revising and not understanding how he needed to answer the questions. He had a habit for example of never explaining context so his answers were "correct" sort of but made no sense for example.

So I think it depends on where their difficulty lays.

Certainly around me there are some highly academic ones where it is generally acknowledged you won't even get an offer if you are not predicted all 9's and some broader ones that accept a lot of people.

Only about 2000 students in the whole country got all 9s in the GCSEs last year so I suspect that either that is a very small 6th form or you are exaggerating.

Dd3 has just started her mocks today. I don't remember how her brother (now 20 did in his mocks) - I wonder if they've become more important post covid. I did very badly in my mock O levels - 28% in Maths but got a B in my actual O level and carried on to do A level Maths.
I'm not at all bothered how dd does in her mocks, she's already predicted all 9s. If your ds didn't do any work for his mocks then I would go by his earlier predictions, if he did then without a tutor or other intensive help he'll probably increase by one grade.

Yes sixth forms do offer based on predicted grades and yes if you do not meet the offer you don't get in.

If you have met the general offer but want to change a levels this is usually ok but strictly it is at the sixth forms discretion.

They then apply the over subscription criteria to the people who have met their offers.

Certainly around me there are some highly academic ones where it is generally acknowledged you won't even get an offer if you are not predicted all 9's and some broader ones that accept a lot of people.

Thanks for starting this thread op. Am reading with interest.

I would also love to see revision timetable examples. Will have a google.

It really depends on lots of things such as how much he cares, how much he understands about the potential impact, how much of syllabus is left to cover, what school plans are for revision & cramming etc.

my son went up 2 grades in some subjects and one grade in others and he still didn’t do enough revision. What motivated him was finally realising he wouldn’t be able to do what he wanted (university) unless he got better grades.

We scheduled an hour weekdays in the evening and six hours over the weekend from Nov of yr 11 to exams in the summer.
My son isn't academic nor likes school work but needed 4s or above for his course in 6th form. I didn't want to make him study for months for hours.

All depends on how little revision they did for the mocks and how much they do for the real thing - one of mine went from a 3 to 6 in English as it gave her the kick she needed. My other dd (in a levels) went from and A in mocks to a D in French as she just freaked out we think

There will always be kids that buck the trend and get good A levels off relatively lower GCSEs, but unless there are clear reasons for those grades, it is a high risk strategy.
That said, they can always restart and repeat y12 with something more suitable if they bomb out.

Interesting. DS got mostly grade 5s and one 6 at GCSE although it was in 2020 so he didn't actually sit the exams. He might have done better in the actual exams with a bit of work. He did go on to do A level economics at 6th form and is now studying it at uni.

The lessons we should have learned in 2020 (i.e. don't assume your mocks don't matter) seem to have been forgotten very quickly!

When I interview a candidate the main thing I'm looking for is, can I work with this person! Do they seem engaging, interested, just generally "nice", you can't teach that!!! Educational qualifications definitely down the pecking order of requirements.

Dd went from a 3 in both English GCSe to an 8 in both but we did get her a tutor (just for English) Science went from a 5/6 to 7/7 without a tutor. Can’t remember the rest.