Private schools to go bust in the coming recession

Depends on the area.

In wealthy areas parents farm kids out to State and local schools do accept kids out of catchment. If those private schools close it will be the catchment children who, quite rightly, get priority. So in oversubscribed areas with high birthrates in some years, some tough decisions then need to be made by LEAs including whether older children already in a school but living out of catchment get to keep their place over a child who is in catchment.

(our LEA is already exploring the legality of this for high birth years as the fear is it will lose out on the higher performing students to bigger better performing schools in other LEAs in the event of vat rises. They also want to make expulsions permanent).

Then there are the schools like DS’ who take in the kids of medical professionals. Most of the parents I’ve spoken to about this have said they’d leave the country for private schools and better pay if that happened.

I think people should be careful what they wish for. What school/academy would not want to offload their underachieving, disruptive cohort in exchange for an injection of well supported pupils who are keen to learn. Easier to teach with the added bonus of wealthy parents to revitalise the PTA and inject some well needed funds.
I would agree with@JustAMinutePleass. Emptying private schools into state will not end well. The parents are a force to be reckoned with, they are used to value for money and will no doubt heap the pressure on an already overloaded system.
Although we are only talking 7% those extra pupils will have to be squeezed in with very little increased funding.

The private sector is worth in the region of 10-20 billion a year ( school fees). That money will not be going into the government education budget. The government will have to find the extra money to teach the extra 7% from its existing budget.

None of the schools estates are state owned so cannot be used or sold off. The government may have the option to buy the estates but many have state of the art facilities that are way out of the reach of government coffers.

It is very naive to think there can be a simple conversion to state as we saw in the 1970s when the Labour government did away with the grammar school system.
I will be surprised if the private schools don’t fight the government in court over the proposed introduction of VAT.

Left wing clap trap, as if the middling left aka Labour will do any better. This country is in such deficit that there’s no money for education or health 😞

Just goes to show how hard it is to generalise doesn't it

Opposite here

And our LEAs discussions are around declining birth rates.

All the private schools near us perform far worse academically than the local state school.

I know through a contact that several LEAs is discussing the legality of permanent expulsions, making existing students living out of catchment loose their places to reapply mid-year, and narrowing catchments so local schools don’t lose out on high performing private students if and when the vat rises come up.

Not all state schools are full. Our city has a huge % schools with spaces post Brexit.

No in our area people live in cheaper areas to afford private fees. If the schools fold they'll get their local area school. Or if they can't afford it anymore and have to use state.
I have zero tolerance for private school privilege and advantage.
I resent the two tier system

The biggest crisis would be if the privately educated children end up in the state system which is already bursting at the seems! The infrastructure is not in place, and then there’s the money it would cost to fund places for all those children !

Yes just imagine people with influence making sure schools weren't going to fall down on top of the children, that there were enough resources that there was enough in the budget to make sure there were enough staff to give every child enough attention. It would be hell wouldn't it.

Of course they would but I was responding to a post that said private school parents don't have any influence, I reckon Sunak and Prince William do have influence. So not all parents will but some probably do.

I know plenty of people who experienced vile bullying in private schools, then switched to state and weren't bullied.

I'm glad your DC has a better experience in the private sector but I've heard just as many examples in the opposite direction.

I think some smaller schools have been vulnerable for years.

I can think of three independent schools in the area that have closed in the last 15 years or so.

In the same period three others have changed the age range or sex of the children they take, presumably in order to attract more pupils.

We were talking about this today. People are so focused on hoping that those richer will be inconvenienced, they are not educating themselves about how their kids in state schools will be in a recession. Now that is what the mass media want, the public to be ignorant of what is to come so the 'elite' and 'powers' can look after themselves. The state schools will be a total mess in a recession. Infact they already are- stop snoozing and wishing bad on those you envy and pay attention to what will happen in the state govt schools. Some schools already teaching core subjects in classes of 120- you think that is ok just as long as private schools are getting charged more?

exactly this. I think people's energies are better spent campaigning for more funding in state schools, better teacher salaries, LSA support and smaller classes than praying that the private schools fold so you can smile for 30 seconds that those richer than you can't go to that particular school- perhaps.

I have said the same. Getting glee from private schools folding or having to pay tax, might give your envy a thumbs up but the funding won't go into state schools, it will mean that class sizes in state schools will blow up.

I don't know qhy you would be sure of this. You realise that they have been in power previously?

If I had NT kids they’d more than likely be at a state school.

They both gave it a really good run anyway.

Its easy to be noble about saying you’d stay state after a gigantic lottery win, when you’ve got kids that it sounds like would do well anywhere.

If on the other hand you’ve sat through literally years and years, over a decade of tears and sadness and endless painful rejections night after night, plus physical violence you’d almost certainly do what I’ve done. Any parent would. No parent wants to see their child suffer daily. Every day. For years and years and years.

I can’t tell you what it’s done to me as a person, those awful years at primary. What happened to my kids. My mental health and theirs, more than mine, has been affected forever. Bullying breaks a person and it’s a long road to recovery. and some don’t recover. Not really.

Days are longer though.

State schools closing espec London due to falling numbers so balance might be redressed .
So long as whichever govt funds education it won't be an issue if some private schools fold. It will be about govt policy.
https://schoolsweek.co.uk/study-reveals-full-scale-of-london-pupil-exodus-amid-school-closures/

2 week half terms have been pretty standard at some private schools. The autumn one is often school trip offered for first week then puoils go home. Terms are much shorter at boarding schools too.

We’ve already reduced the school day in my school. We finish at 3pm with 30 mins for break and lunch. We have a 2 week half term this year - another week of heating and lighting saved.

I think worrying about private schools going under is the least of our worries if we go into a global recession.
All schools will be hit by increasing costs, particularly staff salary increases to keep up with inflation. We will probably see measures such as reduced school days/hours and increases in class size to accommodate rising staff costs. Heating is a major problem so reducing the hours in winter to save fuel will be considered. It may have to be if selective power cuts are introduced.
I was at school during the last big recession in the 1970s when fuel was rationed, power cuts and three day weeks were introduced.