Private schools to go bust in the coming recession

Interesting how things are being conflated and stereotypes bandied around...
Getting back to the original post - I agree that quite a few private schools are likely to go bust as a result of: (a) decrease in natality rates from the 2011-12 peak, (b) recession, (c) VAT on fees, and (d) elimination of tax benefits coming from the charitable status [To note, c is different from d].

Those that belief that parents of children in private school are all very wealthy Tories might want to get out a bit more, and visit more private schools (even within my corner of SW London there is a huge variety in the socio-economic and ethnic background of different schools) and speak with more parents with children in private schools. Similarly, the comments about people referring to parents sending children to private school because they do not want their children to mix with children from different backgrounds say more about the prejudices of the poster than about reality.

I do not think that the measures when/if implemented, would be the demise of all private schools but it will impact some, likely to be disproportionately so in less wealthy parts of the country and would make private schools less socio-economic diverse. There will be an outflow of pupils in those areas.. how big is anyone's guess - the IFS estimates were, after all, done at a time when the economic environment was substantially different. It is fair to assume that, in a recession, the impact will be much bigger. As to the impact on the finances of state schools, it remains to be seen if any money obtained from (a) and (b) will be ring-fenced for education and allocated to those areas/schools that have been most impacted. People may want to refer to previous government track record on that front.

Given that (a) and (b) are not a political decision, I would be really interested in views (especially from those advocating the demise of private schools)
(i) there are other private services that 'compete' with public provision that are not subject to VAT - would they put them in the same category and also subject private insurance and private healthcare to VAT?
(ii) given that charities have indeed tax benefits regardless of the sector, wouldn't increased requirements on charity activity be preferable - e.g. increased bursaries, outreach activities, etc?
Just some thoughts ..

That’s fine. We use state foo and dc did well with university at the end, happy to have got what we did without fees.

Even using state the policy is poor. It’ll get people going emotionally, not do much, dc will be disrupted and smaller private schools will fold.

Supporting disadvantaged pupils is a national priority. It also benefits every other pupil in the system as it prevents behaviour issues which drain resources away later.

My children get no additional support but if the kids who need that support are helped, it alleviates pressure across the whole system, which will benefit my kids.

The only thing I've said is that the argument that the state sector, overall, couldn't accommodate an influx of private school students leaving the sector in the years ahead is flawed.

Nothing can be done about privately purchased or arranged privilege. Humans in a free society are free to arrange things.

Organisations like the BBC often have strict rules on placements these days, if they don't yet they should do as a publicly-funded body. It may be that the correspondent was freelance, and outside the jurisdiction of the BBC itself.

But the VAT subsidy is not defensible. Private schools are not really charities, we all know what their purpose is. They should pay their own way without state support - and a special tax loophole is a form of state support. They provide a non-essential service, so VAT should apply.

Yeah I've got no skin in the game, I'm pretty ambivalent. And indeed fairly confident the labour party won't find it that easy to implement based on their battles last time round. I just find some of the assumptions and claims on this thread intriguing and nonsensical

Ok so let people pay fees and tax and feel happy with your state outcome

People can leave the sector at any age. Not just reception.

There will be students finding it hard to get a place.

And many smaller private schools will probably close.

Students will need a place, and it’s not great for them to be disrupted. But overall it’s a poor outcome that just damages a sector for little gain.

Lol at the shit system.

Academically the (non selective) state schools round here all do far better than the private schools.

I wouldn't send my child to one of the local private schools if you paid me and I'm astonished people waste money on them. I can only assume they are terrified little Henry might mix with riff raff, because they certainly aren't spending the money to ensure he does better academically.

Or they’ll move to the more expensive areas in order to access the better state schools……. Alternatively, they’ll temporarily rent in areas within catchment of a good school or grammar school.

VAT raised on school fees won't go into the budget for state schools wholesaler. It is ring fenced for disadvantaged school kids only.

Wealthy parents often find ways to include add ons even in state schools. Eg my relative is a journalist - she arranged her daughter’s 2 week work experience project with the BBC shadowing a correspondant: they go to a ‘needs improvement’ state school in Central London with a massive gang problem - she mitigates this by driving her children in and out of school and neither of them are allowed to socialise with their friends after school. So this idea that moving wealthy parents into State Schools will improve standards is laughable.

Possibly, though the current lot wouldn't do that. Hopefully a different government will, as well as actively managing the population decline.

However that doesn't alter the fact that the "bursting at the seams" and "where will the extra money come from" arguments are significantly flawed.

Thanks, that’s an interesting article and a good point. I still worry that the 10-20 billion that’s paid in school fees currently will not go into the education budget however. It’s an impossible situation.

Be careful what you wish for! Our local private schools offer free - yes FREE education to the night kids who would t be able to otherwise afford it - paid for by those who can. That will be the first thing to go.

Then the pain for the first five years as everyone hustles for positions. It is a great plan long term but the short term will be very painful and will impact on those with the least.

@lolo99 no I don't think the state system is shit. It's underfunded. My DC school is brilliant but we don't have the trappings of the wealthy with regards to all the add ons. Academically state schools are often as good,
It's a two tier system.

So you think ‘haha ha no private school’ means the state schools will improve? Or are you just wanting everyone to be in the sh*t system because if lots are, then all should suffer?

Falling state numbers is a chance to use the allocation of funding for fewer dc

Get more out of it.

Instead of a political gimmick that will damage a sector

Not really.

It's always useful to be reminded how utterly self interested the rich (or at least some of them*) are

• I actually know heaps of rich people who don't think like this and are very civic minded.

thank you. Interesting the selective memories posters in this thread have

I feel just not doing stuff like this will be a start
https://news.sky.com/story/michelle-mone-who-is-she-and-what-is-the-ppe-controversy-swirling-around-the-tory-peer-12762756

This is pretty melodramatic.
Starmer is extremely centre ground.

The middle classes have seen things become increasingly tough for their income bands over this Tory government too.

The topic of private schools have now being discussed and debated at length. The left voters know perfectly well that Labour won’t do better. They would vote for them because they are saying they will end social unfairness. This will not end up well specially for the middle classes. The rich will go to the next place in packs as they do. The poor would stay down and eventually get much poorer while the middle class disappears bar a few ones that can emigrate to start again.

It’s also possible that, like with India, you have existing successful private schools like Eton buying up private schools, acheiving huge economies of scale, and lowering fees for the majority as a result. This would then give us a private school for most budgets.