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Exam data nerdery

161 replies

noblegiraffe · 27/08/2023 12:53

I'm fairly sure that there are other nerds on this site so I thought I'd post some stuff I'd collected in case anyone else is interested. Also, if you see something in the data, maybe we could chat about it.

First offering is this widget from Ofqual. You can look at the grade distribution for various subjects, or you can see how grades in one subject affects grades in another subject (the link between maths grade and computer science grade is quite pronounced, for example).

https://analytics.ofqual.gov.uk/apps/GCSE/9to1/

What I noticed is that the grade distribution for English language is weird. And there are far fewer top grades awarded than for Maths. Why? (This is with the resit data stripped out). It's the same cohort that sits both so it's not about prior attainment.

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NeverDropYourMooncup · 27/08/2023 14:19

MrsHamlet · 27/08/2023 14:17

I also think there's an element of Psychology in the English Grades - examiners know that a five is what kids really need rather than a four, so they look really hard for anything they can give an 'ah, benefit of the doubt on that' mark to, which means they're more likely to creep over the boundary if they're borderline, compared to a low one, where it's clear it's a three - so it's a behavioural/social artefact on a subject that does not have cut and dry Correct/Incorrect answers.

Except we don't mark by grades...

It's just a figure of speech. I'm not assuming everybody here is fully conversant with the marking schemes and modalities of different subjects.

https://filestore.aqa.org.uk/sample-papers-and-mark-schemes/2018/june/AQA-87001-W-MS-JUN18.PDF

MrsHamlet · 27/08/2023 14:17

I also think there's an element of Psychology in the English Grades - examiners know that a five is what kids really need rather than a four, so they look really hard for anything they can give an 'ah, benefit of the doubt on that' mark to, which means they're more likely to creep over the boundary if they're borderline, compared to a low one, where it's clear it's a three - so it's a behavioural/social artefact on a subject that does not have cut and dry Correct/Incorrect answers.

Except we don't mark by grades...

calimali · 27/08/2023 14:16

I wonder if it is because Maths marks are cut and dried. An answer is right or wrong with very little examiner's discretion or wriggle room. English is more subjective. What one examiner might percieve to be a high grade answer, another examiner may not see that in the answer at all.

Controversial, but I think this makes it easier for a Maths teacher to teach to the paper. They can ensure that all of the required Maths skills are taught. In English, and in several other Humanities subject this is more difficult. Yes, there are mark schemes, but there is still the human examiner and their opinion and perception which cannot be predicted.

The use of 'seeds' should pick up on this, but they still only sample a % of the papers marked. I have seen experienced Humanities teachers give a huge range of marks to the same piece of work many times.

NeverDropYourMooncup · 27/08/2023 14:09

Do you get on well with your Data Manager, @noblegiraffe ? 😁

OCR tends to be used by a lot of independent schools. I think there's a bit of history there from it being the Cambridge board, so was seen as the exam to guide knowledge and ability towards successful Cambridge entries.

I also think there's an element of Psychology in the English Grades - examiners know that a five is what kids really need rather than a four, so they look really hard for anything they can give an 'ah, benefit of the doubt on that' mark to, which means they're more likely to creep over the boundary if they're borderline, compared to a low one, where it's clear it's a three - so it's a behavioural/social artefact on a subject that does not have cut and dry Correct/Incorrect answers.

catndogslife · 27/08/2023 14:08

I agree that the distribution for English Language grades is strange.
The number of grade 3s is much higher than I would have expected.
Perhaps it's related to the fact that Maths has Higher and Foundation tier papers, so there is a way to reach a grade 4/5 on both tiers.
English Language on the other hand no longer has tiers, so I wonder if this is affected students who are average / below average more.

noblegiraffe · 27/08/2023 13:58

To be clear that table of GCSE to A-level grade mapping is for maths A-level only!

But the table of A*/A grades does suggest that pupils with lower GCSE grades may be accepted onto other courses but won't necessarily be looking at top grades.

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TeenDivided · 27/08/2023 13:48

I think the links A level grades to GCSE grades should be compulsory reading for anyone trying to push their grade 4/5 kids into doing A levels.

Hullaby · 27/08/2023 13:40

Yes, I love that Ofqual site. My family think I'm weird 😀
Quite struck by, but weirdly enjoying, the 'listen to the chart' feature.

MrsHamlet · 27/08/2023 13:02

That 3/4 data for English is indeed strange.

As for the top grades, it's really very difficult to access the top bands of the English mark schemes, much less the top marks ... but that should be resolved by the placing of the grade boundaries.

noblegiraffe · 27/08/2023 13:02

Third: a link to all the GCSE data, by exam board.

https://x.com/mathsnot/status/1695116584258322499?s=61&t=U9XrcF693-JpMxeIueYG7g

AQA is the most popular exam board for English language by far. However, only 2.5% of AQA candidates get a 9. OCR entry is tiny, but 8.7% of their candidates get a 9. Why?

https://x.com/mathsnot/status/1695116584258322499?s=61&t=U9XrcF693-JpMxeIueYG7g

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noblegiraffe · 27/08/2023 12:59

Second offering - A-level top grade data.

Maths is the most popular A-level. 41% of those who sit it get an A*/A which is probably because it has much higher entry requirements than, say, sociology.

However, the reason for the high entry requirements is because attainment at maths A-level is massively tied to attainment at GCSE, not because maths teachers are only interested in kids who can get top grades.

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