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Exam data nerdery

161 replies

noblegiraffe · 27/08/2023 12:53

I'm fairly sure that there are other nerds on this site so I thought I'd post some stuff I'd collected in case anyone else is interested. Also, if you see something in the data, maybe we could chat about it.

First offering is this widget from Ofqual. You can look at the grade distribution for various subjects, or you can see how grades in one subject affects grades in another subject (the link between maths grade and computer science grade is quite pronounced, for example).

https://analytics.ofqual.gov.uk/apps/GCSE/9to1/

What I noticed is that the grade distribution for English language is weird. And there are far fewer top grades awarded than for Maths. Why? (This is with the resit data stripped out). It's the same cohort that sits both so it's not about prior attainment.

Exam data nerdery
Exam data nerdery
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TheMoth · 27/08/2023 15:05

We were battered on language again this year. At the pulling our hair out stage cos we genuinely don't know how to fix it.

And like pp, lit were 2 or even 4 grades higher. Interesting that's it's also AQA.We're with anther board.

calimali · 27/08/2023 15:05

No you don't need to reach the highest level in all of the questions on the paper to get the top grade that is very true. I just wonder when I read them if the people who write the level descriptors have ever met a 16 year old, let alone taught one.

noblegiraffe · 27/08/2023 15:03

calimali · 27/08/2023 14:38

When I read the level descriptors for the highest level marks on the longer essay questions I often wonder how any 16 year old is ever going to meet the requirement. Take a look at the philosophy highest level descriptors - I think some published philosophers would struggle!

You don't need the highest marks to get a grade 9 though, you just need to be in the highest percentage of candidates.

To get a grade 9 for AQA English language you needed 76%. I don't know how that fits with these level descriptors?

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calimali · 27/08/2023 14:58

Exactly Noble. And subjects like mine who get pushed by the HT to take any Tom Dick or Harry who scrapes just enough GCSEs to make it into sixth form unsurprisingly have a higher number of students achieving at the lower end. The HT just sees the £££ they will bring in, not the struggle those students will have trying to manage the A Level courses.

Again, something that governers and parents can't always seem to grasp.

Spendonsend · 27/08/2023 14:57

Thank you @noblegiraffe that makes sense. In my head the exam was getting harder and harder as only high achievers sat it and they had to fail someone.

noblegiraffe · 27/08/2023 14:56

Put in the *s next to the As as appropriate. 🤦‍♀️

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noblegiraffe · 27/08/2023 14:55

Spendonsend · 27/08/2023 14:46

I love these sorts of threads.

One thing i dont quite understand is further maths gcse. My son did it, but it seems only people who look to get 7-9 in maths sit it. So if they stick to the top 5% get a 9 patterns in other subjects does this mean the bottom 30% of further maths get below 4/5 even though they are the top 30% in normal maths?

Also same with A level - if only the top grades can do it compared to other A levels dont you end up with a grade distribution all based on really good at maths people so its a harder A level?

If it's only bright kids sitting the exams, then a higher proportion of them get the top grades - if you have a look at Classical Greek GCSE, 54% of kids who take it get a grade 9, because the kids who take Classical Greek are likely to be pretty clever.

It's the same at A-level - you can see that 41% of kids who take maths get an A/A - that isn't because it's an easier A-level, but because the entry requirements are generally around a 7 at GCSE. The A-level with the highest proportion of A/As is Further Maths.

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calimali · 27/08/2023 14:52

I also have to remind parents that there is also a difference for subjects that the whole cohort do, and those subjects that students choose to do. And other factors which might impact on the number of highest grades achieved. It is hardly surprising that subjects such as Polish or Russian get amazingly high grades in a school with one or two native speaker entries per year.

Popfan · 27/08/2023 14:50

Not sure about the comment, kids need a 5 more than a 4?? Mumsnet offspring notwithstanding, many, many students will not be doing A Levels after GCSEs and it's more a 4 needed surely? 5 GCSEs at 4-9 including maths and English is what's needed for so many post GCSE routes. Some colleges even take less as long as you have the 4 in English and maths.

Great link though @noblegiraffe . Will be perusing with great interest!

fruitpastille · 27/08/2023 14:49

I love that aqa one. I'm personally invested as my DC got a very high grade 9 for literature but only just scraped a 7 for language which we were surprised by. You can set it just for a grade 9 in one subject then see how many of those got each grade in a different subject.

Spendonsend · 27/08/2023 14:46

I love these sorts of threads.

One thing i dont quite understand is further maths gcse. My son did it, but it seems only people who look to get 7-9 in maths sit it. So if they stick to the top 5% get a 9 patterns in other subjects does this mean the bottom 30% of further maths get below 4/5 even though they are the top 30% in normal maths?

Also same with A level - if only the top grades can do it compared to other A levels dont you end up with a grade distribution all based on really good at maths people so its a harder A level?

MrsHamlet · 27/08/2023 14:41

NeverDropYourMooncup · 27/08/2023 14:29

But not everybody on the thread would be 🙂- Noble's not said 'Teachers only' - or 'Data Managers Keep Out'!

Edited

True... except "benefit of the doubt" really isn't a thing, and I can't remember a time in the last decade of marking exams when I could look at "borderline" students because that's not how it works when you're marking online.

calimali · 27/08/2023 14:38

When I read the level descriptors for the highest level marks on the longer essay questions I often wonder how any 16 year old is ever going to meet the requirement. Take a look at the philosophy highest level descriptors - I think some published philosophers would struggle!

SomersetBrie · 27/08/2023 14:37

noblegiraffe · 27/08/2023 13:02

Third: a link to all the GCSE data, by exam board.

https://x.com/mathsnot/status/1695116584258322499?s=61&t=U9XrcF693-JpMxeIueYG7g

AQA is the most popular exam board for English language by far. However, only 2.5% of AQA candidates get a 9. OCR entry is tiny, but 8.7% of their candidates get a 9. Why?

This is all fantastically interesting and that's my Sunday afternoon of a bank holiday gone.
I have tried searching, but have you any idea if there is a resource that shows Welsh exam board(s) taught in England? DC school did two Eduqas exams, both went worse than expected for him and some of his friends, I'd be curious of the percentages for those too.

PatriciaHolm · 27/08/2023 14:36

noblegiraffe · 27/08/2023 14:27

The English distribution looked like that in 2018 and 2019, so it's not a cohort issue...

Yes, in 2018 when they first introduced the 9-1 grades I think the percentage of 4+ was set by the percentage of C+ grades in 2017, and the percentage of 7+ grades was set by the percentage of A+ grades.

I can't remember how the grade boundaries were set between the 4 and the 7 - was it equal steps in marks? It's just really odd that you have more kids coming out with a 5 than a 4, and now that's going to keep happening because of comparable outcomes!

Grade boundaries GCSE reformed June 2018 (aqa.org.uk)

Almost - steps seem to have been 10, 11, 11 marks (grades 4-5, 5-6, 6-7). So pretty even.

https://filestore.aqa.org.uk/over/stat_pdf/AQA-GCSE-RF-GDE-BDY-JUN-2018.PDF

TeenDivided · 27/08/2023 14:35

Love the listen feature!

Bobbybobbins · 27/08/2023 14:35

Argh apologies for typos, definitely not 9 worthy Grin

Bobbybobbins · 27/08/2023 14:34

Agree that OCR is used a lot by independent schools which Jay explain the difference. It frustrates me that fewer trade 9s are awarded for English. I often think the top bands of the MS are wooly and phrases like 'perceptive' are subjective and expecting a lot from 16 year olds in a limited time with unfamiliar texts or writing tasks.....

noblegiraffe · 27/08/2023 14:31

Hullaby · 27/08/2023 13:40

Yes, I love that Ofqual site. My family think I'm weird 😀
Quite struck by, but weirdly enjoying, the 'listen to the chart' feature.

I thought it would read out the results from the chart, but no, it plays them as a tune! Grin

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NeverDropYourMooncup · 27/08/2023 14:29

MrsHamlet · 27/08/2023 14:26

I'm pretty familiar with how English marking works :)

But not everybody on the thread would be 🙂- Noble's not said 'Teachers only' - or 'Data Managers Keep Out'!

noblegiraffe · 27/08/2023 14:27

The English distribution looked like that in 2018 and 2019, so it's not a cohort issue...

Yes, in 2018 when they first introduced the 9-1 grades I think the percentage of 4+ was set by the percentage of C+ grades in 2017, and the percentage of 7+ grades was set by the percentage of A+ grades.

I can't remember how the grade boundaries were set between the 4 and the 7 - was it equal steps in marks? It's just really odd that you have more kids coming out with a 5 than a 4, and now that's going to keep happening because of comparable outcomes!

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MrsHamlet · 27/08/2023 14:26

I'm pretty familiar with how English marking works :)

calimali · 27/08/2023 14:25

No, we don't mark by grades. but most people who mark have a pretty good idea of the mark that will push a grade into the 5 territory. In fact I have been told by team leaders in the past to look again at any boderline students to make sure there are not one or two marks more that could be awarded.

I also think there may be a reluctance from English/ Humanities examiners to award top level marks for answers. In Maths once you have the answer then that's that - marks awarded. In English/ Humanities there is usually something else that could have been said by the candidate. No answer is fully perfect (or rararely!) I know this is wrong and that candidadates should eb rewarded for what they HACE said not penalised for what the HAVEN'T but it happens.

Hullaby · 27/08/2023 14:24

As each paper is marked by several different people that 'ah, benefit of the doubt' would have to keep happening on each section, and the marker would not have developed a 'relationship' with the candidate surely?

PatriciaHolm · 27/08/2023 14:24

My first thought re OCR was - is that the board preferred by selective independents? Neverdrop's comment seems to reinforce that. That would explain the higher % in top grades.

The English distribution looked like that in 2018 and 2019, so it's not a cohort issue...