Can anyone explain where ‘GCSE Target Grades come from?

I can tell you that most schools do not underestimate the target grades. If they did that then as a head of department I could have been far more relaxed about my GCSE grades. In my school they were based on a mix of KS2 results and on tests Year 7 did when they entered the school - a mix of verbal, non verbal and numeracy type test. None of these results were generated in tests from my own subject but they were still used to give target grades. Once the grade was generated it was then upped by one. Some schools use MIDYS, some use Fisher Family Trust. It generates lots and lots and lots of stats and paperwork.

It was a ridiculous system. Students who were just about able to write a sentence even in Year 9 were given target GCSE grades of 7 or 8. Even more ridiculous since they were projected from grades given to them when they were 10 or 11 years old. I had to meet every two months with management to go through my departments predicted grades. Utter waste of time and effort since my department was very successful and always produced GCSE results well above the LEA and national average in my subject. It didn't stop my HT constantly challenging me as to why students in the bottom set who did not have any chance of a high grade pass in any subject were not being predicted a higher grade.

I would take all target grades with a pinch of salt - especially at the moment.

Predicted grades are calculated by using a government formula, inputting KS2 scores - these are currently estimates, as ks2 tests were not done.

Target grades are one or two grades higher than predicted grades

They have very little meaning

Ha ha!!! I was a secondary school teacher for 25 years, it used to bemuse me too. But l know where they come from.

From KS2 scores. They are then compared across the country. And are then calculated using previous GCSE scores . So if your child got x score at KS2, the majority of students with that score went into achieve x grade at GCSE. That’s your target score. However, sometimes they are tweaked upwards to be an aspirational grade.

Some of these are based on subject scores or combined KS2 scores. Some schools also set CAT tests and then factor them in.

Sometimes they factor the schools own previous GCSE scores into them too.

Clear as mud

But yes, under normal circumstances they are extrapolated from SATS. We definitely do not underestimate @TheReluctantPhoenix, there’s a set formula that we have to stick to. If anything it’s the exact opposite - kids who have been drilled for their sats to within an inch of their life end up with impossibly high target grades they won’t get close to.

As a secondary teacher, I’m really hoping my own children underperform in their sats when the time comes, just to reduce target grade pressure.

And, yes, most schools also test cognitive scores (such as Midyis). This is similar to an old style IQ test. It tests verbal stuff, number stuff and also ‘skills’ (really reading comprehension plus a bit).

Some companies provide GCSE predictions from these. They mean little, except, sometimes, for the very top and bottom.

Due to the lack of SATS data ours did CAT tests at the beginning of year 7 and they were used to set predicted grades.

@TableFlowerss I honestly have no idea! They all disappeared for testing for a day and then the target grades appeared in the system a week later.

Year 7 GCSE predicted/target grades are a load of nonsense.

I believe they just come from the year 6 SATS. Most schools also try to underestimate, do they can show ‘progression’.

We did our year 7 target grades based on baseline tests that we did with them when they came in. But they were done centrally rather than by subject so I cannot be more specific than that!