When do schools usually decide whether a student should do foundation or higher tier GCSE maths?

hah @TeenMinusTests types faster than I do!

In fact for many students achieving a 2 or a 3 at maths is still worth doing.

Also, do you have knowledge of the foundation paper? Yes, a 5 demands a high percentage, but it is much much more straightforward to gain that score on F than the score for a 5 on H. A student whose best likely result is a 5 should certainly sit foundation in any subjects where it is an option.

Sadly it is not an option in English. not even Eng Lang, so that many level 2/3 student are completely overwhelmed by the one size fits all paper they have to tackle.

DD1's school decided just before Christmas last year to change her entry to higher tier.
We were pleased.
She had extra maths lessons in school (when they were there) and via Google Classroom when off.
They then decided in April this year that they hadn't managed to cover everything and she had to do intermediate tier instead.
It was like they hadn't taken the current situation into account.
Whilst I understood the decision I do wish that someone told us at some point that she may not cover the syllabus in time so to be prepared.

A grade 4 is perfectly worthwhile. It is the requirement for lots of jobs and level 3 courses.

Personally, I would find Foundation very hard. The only worthwhile grade to achieve is a 5, and to achieve that you have to gain a high score in the paper.

He's not going to work in the summer (I'd like him to but it would destroy us) no one is suggested hours and hours on maths every day. I say this a lot but teenagers are awake for a lot of hours over summer holidays probably at least 12 a day. Asking him to do 15-20 minutes of maths a day can make a huge difference and hardly dents his free time.

My school have expectations for each set, ie sets 1&2 do higher, sets 3,4&5 do foundation (we have parallel sets so 10 sets altogether). So we are teaching the content that is most suitable for each set right from the start of year 10.

We then do set changes at the end of year 10, based on their summer exams. Generally these changes are pupils from set 2 moving down onto the foundation tier. Moving the other direction is very difficult because someone who was following the curriculum for foundation hasn't encountered the topics from the higher tier. Any movement is based on their likelihood of achieving a grade 6 by the end of year 11. So if they do look likely to manage it they stay on the higher tier, if not they move to foundation. We've found that a grade 5 is easier to achieve on foundation, mainly as a confidence thing. Sticking with foundation (which does look at some relatively challenging material) gives the opportunity to really master the right topics without having to struggle through things that are really, really, really difficult where they may lose confidence as they struggle to understand and then remember/apply these skills.

Is his prediction of a 5 from his exams this year? Or is it a target from earlier attainment? Does he know which tier he's likely to be put in for? Did they start working on the GCSE content at the start of year 9 or do his school start GCSEs in year 10?

Your son has this summer to make sure his maths knowledge is secure. Unless he has lots of things happening over summer he can work each day on maths and he would reap the benefits. That goes for any subject he wishes to read around and improve his overall understanding of. He can ask his teachers where they suggest he looks.

My sons are yr13 and yr10. Ds1 did higher paper, we were told by school that you need to be securing a confident grade 6 by the end of year 10 to be put into the higher paper. I can only repeat what we were told, I am not a maths teacher, but 50% of the higher paper is geared toward discerning the level 9s from the level 7s. That means a proportion of the paper is not accessible to grade 5s and 6. It can be soul destroying to leave questions blank if you do not know or have not been taught how to tackle them.

However, their school never predicted GCSE grades from year 9, they only had target grades for the end of year 9. They only start tentatively predicting grades by the end of November in year 10 and then it is just 6+ rather than a specific 8 or 9. Mine have a minimum target grade ie this is what we think you will get and then an aspirational if you just put a bit more effort in grade.

Oh yes, definitely.

I would say that in middle sets although the teaching still has an eye to Higher material, they likely won't cover all the material, so getting a very top grade is pretty much impossible.

Though presumably kids are in the middle sets because they haven't mastered middle grade topics, so wouldn't be able to master the top grade material in the time anyway.

DC's school have a slightly different set up to SCMocha in that, by the start of Year 10, sets 1-3 are pretty much guaranteed to do Higher (though you get the odd student that moves out); set 4 is borderline but probably Higher; sets 5-6 are borderline but probably Foundation and sets 7-9 are definitely foundation. If you weren't in at least a middle set by the start of Year 10, your chance of doing Higher would be nil. After Year 11 mocks the middle sets are shuffled and definitely categorised as Foundation or Higher. And probably more students move down than up.

I would say that in middle sets although the teaching still has an eye to Higher material, they likely won't cover all the material, so getting a very top grade is pretty much impossible.

Many of the schools here unofficially decide at the start of Year 10 when they are put into sets that are intended for Foundation or Higher. It's officially still possible to move, so people don't object too much at that stage, until they realise that in practice, moving is extremely unlikely, through a combination of timetabling, class sizes, and missed material. I have tutored a few Year 10/11 who would like to learn some of the Higher content, but the set up at school means that once they are in Foundation, that's pretty much it. By Year 11, the Higher classes have done so much more work that it would be really hard for them to make up the missed content even with a tutor. And switching maths sets could mean changing other classes, and when they have a sort of 2-year program, usually with the same teacher, that can be complicated.

other schools manage it better, lots more maths sets all along, less of a fixed divide between foundation/higher classes, more reviews of sets, more students generally which can mean more maths classes timetabled at the same time, allowing moves, etc etc.

so it's quite a school specific thing. But overall I think switching from a class that is intending to do Foundation to one that is intending to do Higher, is quite an effort; if they are in a class that is unsure which tier they will do and is teaching some crossover 4-6 content, then it will be an easier move. Going the other way, from Higher to Foundation, is generally easier (unless they are so lost in a higher class that they are getting nothing from it, and missing out on learning some of the basics well, which you would hope would be noticed earlier!). I think larger schools where there are more finely graded sets can make that aspect easier.

But the sooner the better for changing to Higher, for a pupil who really wants to do it.

Would he do some work over the summer? Even 15 mins a day identifying areas he struggles with and watching some Khan academy or similar will soon add up and put him in a more comfortable position to start yr10.

There's generally only a minority of kids who you'd be uncertain about - those predicted middle grades covered by both H and F. The set that they go into at the start of the GCSE course is a significant determiner of tier, it's problematic to jump from one tier to another when you've only studied for one of the tiers for the entire course, and schools will have an idea that, for eg, sets 1-4 do H 5-8 do F. The biggest shuffle will be after yr 11 mocks, and more usually downwards if you felt some groups of students wouldn't hit the 'C' (old money) on the H. Although I've also switched tiers days before an exam. The only thing that could really prevent moving to a higher tier would be that the current set isn't studying the H topics, although you could show the school you're doing the H topics with a tutor, I imagine.

Discuss it with the school. There's many considerations when choosing a tier. As PP have said, the H tier can be quite demoralising for students who are expected to get a lower grade and the psychological effect of that can really knock confidence. And 20 year of teaching maths has shown me how important confidence is.

By the way I meant to say before, so will add now - if a child does foundation, that is in no way indicated on their GCSE certificate, It will say Maths - grade 5 but that's all. Just in case anyone was worried about a stigma around taking foundation (not that there should be, in any way, as it is usually the best option if advised, but I suspect it may be a concern).

We have been told mid yr11 but as maths is one of the weaker areas, some concentrated revision for yr9 exams led to an increase in grades which is a confidence boost so I would look for some tuition sooner rather than later.

My son is at the end of Yr10, been predicated a 5 working at a 4/5 at the moment and the school have made the decision already to move half his class down a set from the start of next year and no option but to do foundation. (This is set 2 of 5 sets!) I’m looking for some clarification from the school with little luck.

A 4 is a low/mid C in old money.
A 5 is a high C or low B .
A 6 is a med/ high B.

OP I agree with others, decision is not made until sometime in year 11. However, if his set/group is all aiming for F, then yes, the work for H may not be covered, so I would look into it now and maybe talk to the teacher before the end of term.

You say he is capable of more than a 5 - but would this actually be of benefit? The F paper is a lot more accessible - I do think for a student who is a strong 5, they will get a better experience of doing F as they will have mastery of it - as opposed to doing H and not being able to access a good deal of the paper (to get a 5 at H tier, you only need to get about a third of the marks, in other words 60+% of the questions you cannot answer).

For future careers and A level/uni applications, a 5 is fine - obviously unless he is hoping to do maths/engineering or similar - in which case, as you were! Hope that is helpful, not trying to be clever or snidey.

Oh right. Thanks. My eldest is year 7 and all the insteps and megs are so confusing.

5 is a high C. 4 or above is considered to be a GCSE "pass".