GCSE summer 2020 thread 6 - Carry on Corona Cohort, Further adventures aboard the Corona Charabanc.

“When calculating the CAG and rank orders, did teachers know that the ranking would ultimately be the more important factor for most schools?”

We thought the guidance made it clear that the rank order was the most critical thing. I know not all teachers think it was clear enough, but the guidance indicated from the beginning that the rank order would be used to adjust results so that they matched up with the grades that the statistical model indicated were realistic for that school. Where students were borderline we spent more time making sure that they were in the right order than agonising over where we put the cut-off between two grades, as it was clear that the cut-off could move but the rank order wouldn’t.

Thank you @Piggywaspushed - that article made an interesting read (although not necessarily a reassuring one!).

When calculating the CAG and rank orders, did teachers know that the ranking would ultimately be the more important factor for most schools? I’m assuming (perhaps wrongly) that there would have been some guidance from the exam boards/Ofqual about how to assess the students and how the assessment data would be used?

I would feel much more reassured if we had an individual right of appeal

What’s the betting that won’t there will be no reflection by OFCAL in England?!?!

Might be of note that Cambridge International Board ( CIE) GCSES and A Level results are out tomorrow. Will be interesting to see how those go...

Ofqual won't share their methodology until results day!

This is a long read but interesting . It's about A Levels but still the same principles.

www.hepi.ac.uk/2020/08/10/a-levels-2020-what-students-and-parents-need-to-know/

Has everyone seen what's just happened in Scotland? All grades getting looked at again ( more info coming tommorow) but Sturgeon apologized and said they had got it wrong. Worrying as Ofqual surely used the same methodology? Will Ofqual do the same. Whole process has been undermined now IMO

I suppose that’s a possibility. In itself it wouldn’t solve the problem for students relying on the better grades for university places, as I assume the standardised grades would be the official ones, but it might help those who don’t need the grades but want their certificates to better reflect what they feel was their full potential. It might help to calm the public anger without really changing much practically, although I suppose it could help universities to see who narrowly missed a grade (a bit like looking when they look at the exam marks of kids who only missed a grade by a mark or two).

Thanks @MadameMinimes. I was doing okish until this stuff started being reported in the press. DD is SEN and has worked so, so hard. The waiting now is killing me!

Agree we can’t have the highest gcse grades ever. Maybe they will be announcing a more lenient appeals system

If they just publish a certificate with both grades, that will do the job!

Having read your posts, Cherry, I think there’s good reason to hope that your daughter will get the grades she needs. FFT targets played no role at all in my predictions. I have students with FFT targets of a 2 who I have predicted 5s for. One of my predicted grade 9s has an FFT of 5. The reverse is also true, with a few students with lower predictions than their FFT grade. Your daughter’s school’s previous performance will also go in her favour. I will keep everything crossed for her.

So I’ve been emailing the local independent schools about the possibility of DD retaking year 11. One has said outright no but we are in talks with another one. I refuse to let this bloody pandemic undo years of hard work to get up from predictions of 2/3 to grades 5/6 and then have the rug pulled out from under DD’s feet. It’s an extreme measure but this whole thing is driving me nuts!!

No idea, but my guess would be some form of equality impact adjustment to redress some of the difference between disadvantaged and more affluent students or a change to the appeals process.

If there’s a decision to get rid of the moderation process and just let all of the CAGs stand then that will massively advantage students whose schools wildly over predicted at the expense of those who attend schools that predicted sensibly. The whole point of the moderation process was to ensure that there was consistency and fairness between centres. If they just scrap it entirely then everyone will know that 2020 results are over-inflated which will affect the credibility of the qualifications of every student who should have sat exams this year.

Re-instating the grades would also be a problem as some schools were more rigorous than others on avoiding grade inflation. Changing the rules during the process could be problematic.

So the announcement tomorrow in Scotland will be what...?

Are they going to reinstate grades? It feels like a farce

That sounds like a very sensible attitude to have.

I know i'm in a position where sixth form colleges entrance requirements are not ridiculously high but we have just decided to work with what happens on results day. Dd is one of those who swears she would have pulled it out of the bag to get 'everything above 7' , she is a standard B grader and truth is, as I said to her when this all started, we have no way of knowing that for sure she could have done that...or how hard everyone else has worked. We just have to try and be pragmatic on the day and work best we can with what is in front of us. If resits for English and Maths required so be it.

The students at the very bottom of the rank order (in any significantly sized cohorts) are going to be ones who the teacher thought were borderline between that grade and the next one down. I know that our lowest ranked students at GCSE were very marginal and in a normal year, with exams, a good number of them would have got the lower grade. I know people will be worried but most schools used statistical modelling before sending their predictions anyway. I can’t imagine anyone other than genuinely marginal kids getting lower grades than their predictions at my school. We know that our predictions are very close to what we’ve got in the past and I’m sure that’s the case in most schools, especially for big subjects like English and Maths. There is also now the option for schools to appeal if they think they can prove a significant change in circumstances which could be important for rapidly improving schools who may have lost out. I really don’t envision CAGs being allowed to stand, and to be honest I don’t think it would be fair if they did. It would make employers and sixth forms really sceptical of the value of this year’s grades as a whole and disadvantage to whole cohort.

@ClarasZoo That would be positive! It's been such a difficult journey for everyone already. My DD hasn't been herself the last few weeks. I am showing a brave face and continually re-assure her all will be fine. I think we will get a flavour of what's to come on Thursday.

Scotland are going to announce something tomorrow. I hope that it is CAG awarded or my idea, to give a certificate with both results on, and the higher counts....

Trying, and failing, not to obsessively worry.

I can imagine students at the bottom of each ranking getting pulled down across the board.

The number of scottish students going down 2 grades was tiny, Piggy quoted them above, but it was around 10 in total. IB was worse because they did not rank.

A level students are worried where there is a very able student who is on for an A*, but the school has had nothing higher than a C for a couple of years. This will not be the same for GCSE because the numbers at each centre will be bigger. It is extremely unlikely that you will see anything going down 2 from teacher predictions, I just hope that people don't see all their grades caught on the threshold and pulled down.

Thanks all for the supportive messages, what will be will be I guess.

Fortunately for her, the school is the best performing school in the area and nationally high up in the league tables, they have always had a high percentage of top performing pupils. So if they do use school data that is a bonus

I guess they could decide a school has been too generous across the board and adjust everyone down by one grade, and also shift where the next grade starts?

So school's CAGs and ranking is:

1. John A*
2. Paul A*
3. George A*
4. Ringo A*
5. Pete A

And after moderation they might be:

1. John A
2. Paul A
3. George A
4. Ringo B
5. Pete B

Ranking order is the same but poor Ringo has gone down 2 grades