GCSE summer 2020 thread 6 - Carry on Corona Cohort, Further adventures aboard the Corona Charabanc.

@sandybayley glad it’s not just me! In part I just wanted dd to understand the process and be prepared for the worst case scenario. It’s very tricky at her school to work out the rank order as it’s a highly selective school and they’re nearly all going to be getting 7s and above in all subjects with 60% of grades being 9s. I do wonder if that makes it harder for them to rank them?

Anyway, hopefully all our children will get roughly the grades they’d have expected if they’d done exams. I’m sure it will all seem irrelevant in a year’s time!

@crazycrofter - it's not obsessive, I've done the same for both DD and DS1

Both their schools publish full results so it's not hard to do. I've tried to work out where they rank and am hoping for something close to DD's mocks and DS1's predicted A Levels. I think people are finally getting their heads around the system that rank is more significant that CAG. Where they sit in the ranking of the cohort matters more than the CAG.

Thank you @OrangeCinnamon1 @crazycrofter, "major U-turn" is was got me but obviously nothing new. I'd like to say I am not counting the days but I am! My DD has every faith in her teachers but she also has high hopes so it's going to be a difficult day if expectations are not met. I just looked at Mr Bruff video, thank you for suggesting it @OrangeCinnamon1 , going to share it with DD also.

It's definitely easier if the school is historically high performing. I do feel for children in small schools, or low performing ones, or even new schools which don't have any historic results.

I'm not particularly worried about dd's grades; whatever happens she should be able to move on to A Levels. Roll on 20th August though - it will be good to get it over with!

It is so tempting to analyse isnt it? Must confess to doing that for DD beloved Music @crazycrofter. With the knowledge that she got full marks in her March mock written paper, a teacher assessment of grade 9 for her performance and 46% of the previous class getting above an A we are reasonably confident and have everything crossed. The trouble is her year is so large and we didnt get official results from March mocks ...we really don't have a clue. She is predicted at least an old grade B across the board, i've no doubt there will be good and bad surprises.
Disclaimer here...her school (state comp in naice area) have been doing extremely well with their results. It is possibly easier for me to say i'm not too worried. The only grade I am really worried about is Music ...it means so much to her ...as long as she gets a pass in everything else it will be a case of 'onwards and upwards' and trying to smash A levels.

This is slightly obsessive but we’ve analysed last year’s school GCSE results breakdown and tried to work out where dd would be ranked in each subject and what she’d get if they were given the same spread of grades this year!

Obviously we don’t really know but dd has worked out a best and worst case scenario and I hope she’s mentally prepared for either!

Have you seen the Mr Bruff video @lillym50 know it's horrid awaiting results..I guess we just need to convince ourselves and kids that it is wasted energy worrying about outcome now. Best to wait and see what happens on results day with energy reserves if required

Expect the same story will be recycled again and again before August. Then we will be treated with stories about how our children are not deserving of their grades.

I managed to read it somehow! It doesn't say anything new - just that the modelling will reduce a lot of the centre assessed grades.

It's amazing how many times the press can write the same thing under a slightly different headline!

I didn't read the article ...but presumably they are talking about the statistical modelling being applied...which is not new news? CAG have always been a component of the final grade. If this is something different is there a better source?

Just caught a glimpse of this article published yesterday (behind paywall):

"Most A-level and GCSE results will be decided by computer modelling and not teachers in major U-turn"

Does anyone know anything more about this in detail ?

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/25/a-level-gcse-results-will-decided-computer-modelling-not-teachers/

Thanks @Monkey2001
I have been looking at DS’s school results from last year & percentage breakdown. So it’ll be interesting to see a comparison to this years.

People who follow the OFQUAL statistical process may be interested in looking at the slide of an OFQUAL symposium which they have published - www.gov.uk/government/publications/awarding-qualifications-in-summer-2020 "Summer Symposium 2020 slide pack".

The A level results will need more moderation than GCSEs if grade inflation is going to be avoided. For A levels the proposed CAGs would see 13.8% of candidates getting A* compared to 7.8% last year, 37.8% A compared to 25.5% last year.

GCSEs less of a problem at the top end as CAGs for 7-9 are 31.6 compared to 24.7 last year and they have said that they will allow an extra 2%. More of a problem around the 3/4 boundary (not surprising that schools do not want their students to fail) as the CAGs have 82.4% of people getting 4-9 compared to 72.7% last year

@crazycrofter that sounds great, it can be really difficult to focus in on what to do, so thinking healthcare in Cardiff could help!

I think the main reason the GF's grades slipped is that she is probably a high functioning dyslexic and was managing well at GCSE by hard work, but at A level the language issues seem to be more difficult to work around. I have known a couple of very bright girls with strong Biology knowledge who were not able to translate that into A level grades. That will not be an issue for most people, just saying that the correlation is not as high as you might expect. There is a report somewhere which is a bit out of date, but illustrates the point - I will see if I can find it again.

Interesting points @Monkey2001. I know 8s and 9s at GCSE don't guarantee A/A* - I've had a few friends' children who've 'slipped' down to Bs at A Level, which are obviously still very good grades. Actually I'm glad dd is considering a wide range of caring professions, so that if A Levels are a step up for her, she can have realistic choices. And if her mental health takes a dive during the next two years, that will be particularly helpful.

I believe the NHS bursary is also available for occupational therapy - as is the Welsh offer of free tuition if you agree to work there, although I'm not sure whether it's been agreed for 2022 yet. It helps that dd is obsessed with Wales and is already keen on studying in Cardiff.

That’s really interesting Monkey and good to hear. I know other public sector roles do incentivise by means of sign on/bursaries etc so I’m sure some of the training costs can be offset if they are retained in the profession for a while. Lots of research for DD to start...

Another potential aspiring teacher here Piggy, but she doesn’t want to enter the profession immediately. She tends to say ‘dunno’ when asked just to bat off all the negativity

It could be great to be so completely in your comfort zone academically so that you can focus on other things in life. Also, getting all 8/9 grades does not necessarily translate to A/A at A levels. DS's GF got excellent GCSEs, all A/A, but struggled at A level and got ACD. She wanted to do medicine and decided to do a Biomedical Science degree , which she is supposed to be starting in September, and apply for medicine as a graduate, but has recently come to realise that it would suit her better to do child nursing. She is trying to switch but she has enough points for adult nursing and not enough for child nursing.

If she had started by being more open minded about various healthcare roles, she would have had an easier time adjusting her expectations. She could still do medicine as a nursing graduate if she wants to.

As Piggy said about the girl who wants to be a nursery nurse, a mental health nurse who is strongest in his/her cohort has a good chance of getting the senior roles later on - I have a nurse friend who is a nurse practitioner who runs her own clinics and is well paid.

@ealingwestmum actually for nursing there is a lot of public funding support - in Wales you do not pay fees if you are willing to work for the Welsh NHS for a few years when you graduate, and the govt give a £5k-£8k annual bursary to all nursing students (£5k available to all, extra £3k dependent on family income) so nurses do not have to graduate with much debt.

Thanks both, she is very mature. She's also quite sensitive and suffers with anxiety, so I'm also not sure a high powered, competitive job would be for her.

But I agree @ealingwestmum that salary is important, to a certain extent. Thankfully it's not my decision to make!

Your DD sounds very mature Crazy. All absolutely pertinent questions; I don’t have the answer either, other than to say their challenge is very real, as both paths incur similar debts to achieve, and yet the earnings outcomes can be so different, irrespective of grade requirements. I hate the thought of our young people having to be reliant on their future partners/parents etc to maintain a financially independent life, but there is a fine balancing act given their rising cost of living vs ours at their age.

It definitely is and is an argument used by some to put young people off a raft of creative and/ or Public sector professions!

Definitely when I was at school thete was a muted response to me saying I wanted to be a teacher ( from teachers!). They wondered why I didn't try the BBC or Law.

I do think it more likely that a boy would look down on a uni if its offer grades were lower, from my experience . There is definitely an ever growing awareness of Russell Group in both genders which does lead some to not actually look more widely. But most students career paths at 15 still stick to the jobs they have heard of! And sadly, most state schools don't have very good careers advisors.

Fwiw , I think your DDs career choices all sound great. I taught a girl this year who should have been getting all 6s and above in everything, higher even, who was settling for scraping 4s because she wants to be a nursery nurse. Fine enough, but why not aim to one day own a nursery and run for the highest results any way?I do teach a lot of girls who lack that intrinsic desire to show what they are made of.

So I don't sound too negative, I also teach a girl who wants to go to Oxford! And will!

'Unambitious' is an interesting concept isn't it. Should everyone be ambitious to earn lots of money? Should we automatically aim for the highest earning careers available to us? Obviously vocation and happiness have to come in somewhere too.

Dd has been debating this. Who knows what she'll end up getting in these exams, but she's likely to get some 9s in her best subjects, so presumably would be expected to aim for A/A* at A Level. She's debating whether to do something like mental health nursing or occupational therapy at university - but noticed that even the best unis were mainly asking for B/B/B for these courses. She wondered if that meant she was selling herself short. Should she be doing Psychology and aiming to be a Clinical Psychologist because you need higher grades and they're better paid? It's a dilemma!

I got basically 69% in everything in my degree! I was that person...

I did get one 2:2 in a module where the man gave firsts to his favourites (he was later sacked for impropriety so I haven't made that up!) and a first in the Romantics where imo, I just chatted shit for the entirety of a 24 hour exam (yes, that's a real thing...) Hysteria and exhaustion seemed to inspire....

Putney Common too....5 months of boredom and the drug dealers are the only ones making money at the moment. Very worrying.

It was some statistical analysis of girls performance against KS2 and target grades over the last few years, monkey. When you look at raw grades, more girls were in top sets (especially in English) and more girls got 9s and 8s : but way fewer that 'should ' have done and a whole swathe of high achieving boys were statistically getting the grades they should have done or better : for a whole host of reasons, one of which may well be last minute cramming , another one anxiety and possibly also girls over performance at KS2 in English, which is quite a well documented, but trickily inconvenient, statistical fact!

It is definitely true though that I teach some very clever girls who are horrifically unambitious (although you could argue they target happiness more and don't equate that with money and career?) and I also, sadly , teach many who are very ambitious and are then regarded as a bit arrogant and thrusting. I think we al know this persist into adult years (can you sense the bitterness of a woman who works in a school with an entirely male SLT !!?!)

Gender is so complex!

A little late but congratulations @OrangeCinnamon1! Hope you enjoy your holiday. Exciting to have a master's to look forward to as well.

We have a niece who got the wonderful but painful 69.44 mark for her classification yesterday. She's still delighted of course but she was dragged down by just one 58% module really, which I think is frustrating for her as pretty much everything else was a first/high 2:1. Our other graduating niece got a first less than a week ago so it's been double (virtual/outdoor) celebrations in our family!