GCSE summer 2020 thread 6 - Carry on Corona Cohort, Further adventures aboard the Corona Charabanc.

I think by taking out the teacher element they are devaluing the GCSE's in all directions.

In DD's friendship group there's a girl who just hasn't worked at all...was getting 2's in mocks, she was perfectly capable but just didn't give a damn. The school has very little history of really low marks - very much middling results with not a lot at either end. So it seems to me that kids who haven't worked much will benefit from past performance, while those who were hoping to break through in the top 8/9's won't get those marks despite teacher predictions due to history. Unfair all round and it's all going to generate a lot of upset. Its a kick in the teeth to the teachers as well.

@Piggywaspushed 25 in the entire year, only 1 class. Absolutely, for me it's about effort and I will be proud of her regardless. It's a difficult year for all. Unfortunately her way of thinking is different, if she feels her grade is less then fair she will want to appeal, which isn't possible so I told her to get ready for re-takes.

Have just read the OfQual guidance on how results are being distributed. Was initially worried, but thankfully DDs school is fairly high achieving with good attainment 8 / progress 8 scores. She should be okay.

However, I'm very worried for my own students. It's a tough school that had terrible results two years ago, a change of headteacher saw better ones last year. But I am most worried that in my GCSE class, the really hard working students will be let down. Last years class were not too focussed and didn't have loads of natural ability. So their results were mediocre to say the least. But this year, I had a bright, hardworking class who I real high hopes for. So if their results are pulled down to be in line with the previous year group, I will be really upset for them.

She'll be near the very top of rank orders then, so she should be fine. Don't panic.

When yous say class of 25, that isn't the whole intake is it? The whole lot is ranked, not each class.

Can you work her / yourself round to thinking 8s and 7s are still amazing: a 9 should be run around the block naked type level of excitement. It doesn't always feel that way on MN...

I am so worried now i read that teacher grades ignored in most GCSE results. My DD is a high achiever in a school with very mixed abilities. Class of 25, except for maths and English, GCSES are less then 15.

Previous results are average. D has a target grade of 9 in maths, further maths and also in her 3 separate sciences. Got high 9s in mocks for all, except for biology where is was just a 9. In the last 3 years for sciences there has only been one 7. Previous classes were 25 and less and for 2 years only 3 took separate sciences with poor results.

Does anyone know how much a student’s postcode can skew the algorithm despite being at a school in a more affluent area?

Thank you both @MadameMinimes and @Piggywaspushed

I think in new subjects and schools the plan is that kids will get their teacher predictions. I don’t know if that only applies to schools that have no prior data or anyone that has less than 3 years. It might be that they do just use your predictions. We’re going to have that issue at A Level, our cohort were doing much better than last year’s, but they aren’t brighter, just more studious and committed. The model won’t account for that, but the majority of our subjects at A Level are smaller than 15, so hopefully that will help.

Except they weren't on track to do that madame just being - y'know- different kids!

I know they don't use individual kids KS2s. I am not panicking : just have never had a satisfactory explanation for (what I considered!) a small subject with only on year's worth of prior data. Hopefully, they just accept my grades and don't ty and throw some silly statistical bollocks at it. The two year groups are not even vaguely similar. This really only ever works in core subjects or large options like history, geography , or elite ones like Ancient Greek!

What makes me sad ( and perhaps I’m a bit weird to think like this) is that DD might get some grades that are higher than she would have got, had the exams gone ahead.
For example, historically, the results for Latin are almost all A and above.
DD’s class this year was smaller than previous years’, so it’s possible that she’ll be awarded a 7, when really, she probably should get a 6.
For me, that would make me feel that none of her results are “real”, which is a bit of a blow for self-confidence, especially given that she has ALN and really needs to believe in her own ability.

If you can’t trust the integrity of the grades awarded, what is the point?

They won’t be using any individual child’s prior data in the calculation of their grade. The adjustments will also be made at subject level. So if your subject usually performs a lot better than most other subjects in your school the grades that the kids get will reflect that. If your kids last year hugely exceeded their targets you can expect that your cohort this year will also exceed their targets.

I do think.that modelling becomes complex though if the statistics based on prior performance at school level say one thing but the subject itself performs higher or lower than the stats suggest. Even more complex in new subjects. To give an example,last year my own predictions were pretty accurate. Predictions based on KS2 ( ie their target grades) were wildly out. Thank God that lot didn't have their grades allocated by algorithms.

Fiddlersgreen- Yes and no. They will be using a statistical model to decide how many of each grade a school “would have” got in any particular subject. The rank orders given by the teachers will then be used to allocate the school’s allocated number of 9s to their top students, 8s to the next best, 7s to the next best and so on. Schools worked hard to produce fair grades so the majority of students will end up with the grade their teacher predicted, even though their teacher prediction wasn’t part of the formula used to calculate their grade. If the statistical model says that the school should have got 5 grade 9s in Drama and your child was in the school’s top 5 in the rank order they will get a 9 regardless of what grade the teacher predicted. If the model says that students 30-43 in the rank order should get grade 6s then your child will get a 6 if their teachers placed them somewhere in that range in the rank order.

Surely most, if not all, subjects would have more than 15 entries?

This is getting me very confused now. I’ve dipped in and out of the info given here as I haven’t kept up with the fast moving page.
Everyone is so helpful and knowledgeable though so I am grateful to have found you all.
Can someone please tell me, what “statistical modelling” means? Is the algorithm people keep mentioning?
And does this mean they are deciding our children’s results having never seen their actual work or am I completely wrong there?

I’m getting more and more nervous as DS school is new so has no prior GCSE results to go by.

I think the appeals thing was a sweetner but also possibly to prevent too many resit entries.

They can't use KS2 for each individual child because that would alter rank order. I think they have used it to ascertain likely whole cohort performance for their sodding bell curves.

Those poor secondary school teachers - at least they have used the ranking I suppose.

Was the announcement yesterday some kind of sweetener ?

Why would you ever believe anything Johnson says? He only ever says what is expedient at that moment.

It'll all be fine. And repeat...

They can’t really have ignored teacher submissions can they? That’s madness and unfair. Surely there will be a legal challenge as ignoring the work pupils have done can’t be a fair way of awarding grades

It all sounds like a holy nightmare for teachers and pupils.
What happened to BJ’s promise that every student will get what they need? I mean, fair enough, some students will fail in any given year, so his statement could never be true, but even so?

We'll have to see how it all works out but - genuinely- that was a huge waste of teachers' time when much of the UK was moaning about why they weren't doing live lessons!

They might as well just have done it for us really!

The irony is , in said 'large entries' the rank ordering (given it could be across 400 students) is the hard bit. That's the bit that could be 'wrong'. The grades being wrong is a more subjective measure...

Clary - your students can force you to disclose this information in law as a subject access request. You can't simply refuse to give this.

Schools were not allowed to disclose centre assessed grades and ranks prior to submission. Legally they have to provide them if a subject access request is made but depending on the wording of the requests these may be quite time consuming. Also they have a month to respond or 40 days from results day if request is made before results day. So a SAR will mean you would miss cut off dates for appeals and Autumn exam entry dates so it would be more sensible to have a conversation with the school rather than steam in on a formal basis!