State waiting list...

I agree with PP, there's normally lots of movement tight up until September in my area. However, the school I work at has seen less movement this year. Maybe because people haven't moved for jobs or housing and we've also seen kids reappear on the waiting list who were going to go independent and now aren't. If they live very close to the school, they go to the top of the list.

It's still worth holding out if you're fairly close to the top of the list as things may move. We have parents phone to ask on a daily basis and it's heartbreaking to say that their child is still 200-300 on the list

There's usually loads of movement in our borough. Loads of parents hold onto state places for months hoping to get a higher preference offer, but eventually give up and go private. Often they don't bother letting the council know they no longer want their state place, but when they don't turn up for the transition day (early July) the council phones them up and there's a big shake-down of places. Not sure what'll happen this year though. Transition day will look a bit different, that's for sure, and if people's jobs are less secure then the private options might be less attractive.
There's often another shakedown in early September when some kids who've accepted places don't turn up. So you might get an offer then if you're still on the waiting list at that point.

In our area, secondary appeals have not yet been heard which can create a lot of movement. For some schools 15th would be no chance and others a very strong chance so depends if the school is popular or the area - ie is it a transient area? But late applications get added to waiting lists and they should be added in criteria order so you can unfortunately move down the list. But yes, plenty of time for lots of movement.

Has anyone been offered a place off a waiting list very late in the process ie AFTER the day the Year 6s normally go to visit their new schools? So I suppose I mean during July and/or August?

I know I've heard there can still be movement right up to September when some children just don't turn up, but not sure how I feel about moving Dd1 if and when she's already started somewhere iyswim.

Part of the issue is that in many areas there have been no admission appeals and in many areas they are just starting. In normal years most of the block secondary schools would by now be done or be scheduled in the next couple of weeks.
So you might find that there is movement but it will be later than normal.
Have to say that being 16th on the waiting list sounds a long way from being offered a place but then you never know how many families are holding onto both a state school place and a fee-paying independent school at the moment.

There's MASSES of movement between now and September. Now and Christmas TBH.

I woudl hold your nerve - you have a good chance as not everyone who is position 1-15 will take up a place even if it's offered to them.

Ooh! I know the Merton schools quite well. PM me which one if you don't mind?

I think it varies by area - some areas have more movement than others. There's definitely movement in my local schools. Do you know where you are on the list? Fingers crossed OP!

Whereabouts are you? We've already seen some movement in our area during April but it does seem to have slowed down a bit since. Still waiting for a recent update from our LEA for May!