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Long term effect of coronavirus crisis on private school sector

258 replies

suk44 · 01/04/2020 22:32

I was reading an article in the Guardian today about the pressure some independent schools are under in the current situation, and how the ongoing uncertainty could hit the viability of some of them. Regardless of whether someone would be happy or unhappy with it, i''m thinking it is quite likely the sector is heading for a hugely difficult couple of years (like many other sectors of course) and especially since this isn't an issue that will be fully resolved anytime soon.

I understand some private schools were hanging on by their fingernails financially even before this crisis due to the huge increase in pension contributions, and now you have to add in the potential pressure from some parents for partially refunded fees for next term, international boarders having to fly home, and predictions of a deep recession (and therefore fewer that could afford to send their children to fee paying schools).

I'm wondering if we will end up seeing a greater number of such schools merging, closing or converting to state schools that we saw even after the 2008 recession, affecting even some big names?

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suk44 · 03/04/2020 16:08

I suspect many will opt out of the teachers pension scheme to reduce salary bills but this will have an adverse effect on recruitment and retention

A lot of private schools had already withdrawn from the Teachers' Pension Scheme or were having to seriously consider doing this even before the current situation, this is now an additional factor that's going to hit their finances that I don't see how cost cutting alone is going to easily solve.

spending on state school in the future is likely to be very strained like all public services and as a result even this with some indie school casualties, the sector itself might get a boost in the medium term.

I also think the state sector is going to be hit financially given cost to the governments coffers of dealing with all this, however I'm not so sure private schools as a whole will benefit from this in the medium term. The only private schools that I imagine might are those that are near another fee paying school that has closed and they end up taking in pupils as there's always some parents that will want to stay private and can afford the fees.

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rhowton · 03/04/2020 16:01

Our eldest was suppose to start in a private school in the pre prep in September and we are postponing it. I've been furloughed, the company isn't doing well, and it's all quite uncertain. Hopefully it all turns out ok, but we would be spending all our money on school fees so if we don't have the money, they can't go.

bluerad · 03/04/2020 15:58

I suspect many will opt out of the teachers pension scheme to reduce salary bills but this will have an adverse effect on recruitment and retention

bluerad · 03/04/2020 15:58

I suspect many will opt out of the teachers pension scheme to reduce salary bills but this will have an adverse effect on recruitment and retention

MarshaBradyo · 03/04/2020 15:50

Probably because there were a few posts about state provision which other posters corrected.

Re businesses 1/5 are said to be in trouble generally so schools as businesses will probably follow.

Stellamboscha · 03/04/2020 15:45

I'm not sure why on a thread about indies people need to talk about how much o line work their super state school is providing? The online thing is going to be very short term. Yes some parents will balk at paying fees while the brick and mortar school is shut, but when they see the reality of what they would be allocated in the state system, those that can pay will come crawling back. And it is likely that this will drive some schools under ad sadly will be the case with many businesses. But given the need to pay for the current bailouts and furloughs, spending on state school in the future is likely to be very strained like all public services and as a result even this with some indie school casualties, the sector itself might get a boost in the medium term.

Tonyaster · 03/04/2020 15:36

I hope not. I've always been a bit conflicted about sending mine privately, but their school has been so brilliant, transparent and organised, with great tech already in place. I know our local state has woeful online provision and I don't want to get involved in having to educate my children myself at all. I'd be terrible at it.

AtomicRabbit · 03/04/2020 15:31

There's no doubt that some will fold. How can the they possibly not?We're looking at the kind of economic slowdown similar to The Great Depression. It unthinkable that every school will remain open. Private schools are a business and in all industries there will be bankruptcies given what is taking place right now.

It's very sad. I think any school that wants to keep its students must ramp up their online learning fast and over-deliver as much as possible. Otherwise how can they justify the fees? In the absence of all the 'extras' they must get the core tuition part right.

My long-term criticism of private schools is the staggering expense of the fees that have increased exponentially year on year and always increase above inflation. In a sense they are victims of their own success.

Do we need ever larger sports halls, swimming pools, auditoriums, sixth form common rooms that look like Costa on steroids etc.

I always just wanted my children to go to school and be taught well.

There is always some kind of building work going on, each school desperate to 'stand out' from the crowd with latest newest bauble.

All those grounds and facilities need staff to run them and adds to the overall operating cost yearly that parents must pay for - plus the extra costs of all the new buildings that are ever bigger, ever grander...

As a parent I'd like those projects to stop - for quite some time.

In the end, all I want is for my kids to be taught well.

Bucolicky · 03/04/2020 15:16

I'm not sure if this one up manship if serving any purpose? Oh gosh - not oneupmanship, I hope. But pointing out an alternative experience does serve a purpose - to make it really clear that state schools do not and are not peddling a 'mundane' offer with no 'added value', and that this inaccurate view really should not be touted as if it's an objective fact rather than a subjective value judgement. I honestly do feel that 6 or 7 hours of Zoom instruction would be deadly, energy-draining and the very opposite of engaging, and really doesn't work in a home setting. If it's a way for private/independent schools to try to prove that they're providing value for money, then that seems at odds with providing meaningful, enjoyable and effective learning for their pupils. I do feel for the schools and their parents, it must have hit hard.

suk44 · 03/04/2020 15:11

I did think it's pretty stark for someone representing a large group of private schools effectively saying they're inclined to think hundreds of fee paying schools could close before the year ends..

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NOTANUM · 03/04/2020 15:04

This thread is about the future of the independent sector and my original point is some secondary independent schools are exceeding expectations in how they're coping with the crisis and that it could be their USP, especially if the crisis carries into the Autumn term. If my child was at one of those, I would continue to pay for that service.

We've been in state/private sector for various children along their journeys for a variety of reasons. I would hate to see independent schools fail en masse. It would be disruptive for way too many children across the country.

My children at secondary are at excellent state schools but while the teachers do their best, there are no online classes, virtual assemblies, pastoral sessions etc. Kids are kept busy but need to be self-driven and work to their own timetable to ensure the work is done by the deadline.

But everyone on this thread says my schools - and those for my friends and families - are the outliers. I can't possibly say otherwise so will leave it there.

happygardening · 03/04/2020 14:43

I'm not sure if this one up manship if serving any purpose? I suspect all schools in both sectors are trying their best within the limitations of they might or might not have. Obviously it's easier to to do videos zoom etc to wealthy families from both sectors who are likely have the necessary IT readily available.
"From our experience, whenever a small school is facing closure, parents will usually step in to help.".
I'm not sure that this would happen in the current circumstances surely if parents cant afford the fees because their businesses are struggling they are not gong to bale out a school.

Bucolicky · 03/04/2020 14:35

I feel like taking issue with @notanum's comments too. My children's schools' approach have not been 'mundane'. They've set imaginative project-based work, have provided excellent and consistent access to teachers for the children - via Teams, Sharepoint and other apps - and the focus on wellbeing has been good: sending lots of wellbeing and mental health resources, encouraging pupils to take time to adjust, do other things like cooking, exercise, music, and - importantly - to keep in touch with their friends. If my teen and pre-teen were sitting in front of Zoom from 9 - 4.30 every day, I'd be very worried about their wellbeing! Mine are having music lessons via Skype/Zoom, and watching online content as well as doing independent research throughout the day, which seems to be in line with what full-time home educators do.

winterfruit · 03/04/2020 14:00

@notanum You continue to make sweeping assertions about state schools on the basis of "20 schools" you claim to know. What evidence do you have that PettsWoodParadise's school is an "outlier"? My DD's state secondary has also followed usual timetable using mix of Zoom, Google hangouts and videos etc. And reports from parents of children at the other 5 secondaries in the Borough confirm the same.

suk44 · 03/04/2020 13:58

There is an article in today's Times educational supplement - you need to register to read the article but part of it is below. Sounds ominous for potentially a lot of schools: www.tes.com/news/exclusive-hundreds-private-schools-bust-christmas

Exclusive: Hundreds private schools 'bust by Christmas'

Hundreds of independent schools could face extinction by Christmas due to the effects of coronavirus, Tes has learned.

Insiders say parents are refusing to pay fees at some schools, while in some cases governors are "wrestling" with how much discount should be given for pupils now learning at home.

“There’s been a warning in some quarters that half of independent schools will go bust by Christmas,” a consultant working in the sector told Tes.

“It’s probably best not to say half – because there could be even more than that. The North of England could become a desert when it comes to independent schools."

When asked by Tes whether the estimate was accurate, Peter Woodroffe, of the Independent Schools Association, which represents 540 schools, said: "I think it's an exaggeration. From our experience, whenever a small school is facing closure, parents will usually step in to help."

But he added: "I suspect we might see between 15 and 20 per cent closing, which is still a lot."

With around 2,300 independent schools across the country, that would mean more than 300 schools becoming extinct by Christmas.

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PettsWoodParadise · 03/04/2020 13:43

@notanum yes defensive because I am proud of DD’s school and your statement did not say ‘some’ it implied all. I have friends with DCs in a range of state schools and nearly all are doing an amazing job. Some of course better than others. My post was also aimed to help others who may be having to pull their children out of independent schools so they know it isn’t all bleak, even in some our less popular schools round my way.

NOTANUM · 03/04/2020 13:00

That's quite a defensive post @PettsWoodParadise. I didn't say that all state schools are doing remote working "badly". My post is based on an observation that some independent schools are using this as an opportunity to add value and indeed may have to in order to justify the fees for next term.

So your state school is one of the few that is providing that online, interactive classroom experience via Zoom and they are to be congratulated for that. But I've probably spoken to parents and/or teachers with children in about 20 schools this week and not one is providing that for all subjects across all year groups. Your school is an outlier I expect.

tegucigalpa13 · 03/04/2020 10:09

Bit are there any good state school places available at this stage??

When the cost of corona impacts school funding is going to be massively reduced for the forseeable future along with spending on health, social care etc.

GreenWheat · 03/04/2020 09:55

No there probably aren't many good state school places available, especially as those who privately educate may not have considered this when choosing where to live.

Whyisthisnoteasy · 03/04/2020 09:19

Bit are there any good state school places available at this stage??

PettsWoodParadise · 03/04/2020 08:54

NOTANUM says:
The state secondaries are not trying to be an online school and are instead setting some self-guided work to keep up the knowledge the children already have.

However my DD’s state school has been brilliant. Staff setting lessons, some online classes taking place via zoom, lots of communication and staff checking in with students regularly. They are generally sticking to their timetable and have an excellent structure in place to support learning. The independent she left many years ago is an all through school and not much has happened with teaching there at the secondary phase.

There are many good independents and many good state schools. Similarly there are dire schools in both sectors. I object to the expectation that all the state schools will all be doing this remote teaching badly.

Sorry for those who have had to pull children out of school but I do hope your DCs love their new state school as much as my DD does. There is life after independent school. DD is far happier than she ever was when at the independent.

resskiestonight · 02/04/2020 18:56

We had to give notice - we hope to withdraw it in Summer but seems sensible thing to do in circs. Our income has significantly reduced. We have had no reduction n fees from prep school and mainly a load of twinkl sheets to date. I’m concerned school may go under given it wasn’t awash with funds Pre- CV. My other concern is that kids won’t go back properly even in sep and we don’t have that much money to squander on Twinkl sheets, as much as I like the school.

suk44 · 02/04/2020 16:38

I forgot to put a link in the op to the Guardian article which is below:

Private schools in UK struggling as coronavirus costs bite

The most telling part is when they quote the head of a small independent school (who i'm sure will have a very good insight into what's going on behind the scenes in such schools), and says “I think we will see some schools closing, I’m sad to say – some are teetering already".

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happygardening · 02/04/2020 16:36

@NOTANUM I'm not sure I think our last date for giving notice was the first day of a new term (this was a while ago) and I think it was at at least one of the boarding schools I used to work in. But my memory isn't aways good when it comes to these sorts of things!

TigerKingisMental · 02/04/2020 16:29

We gave notice before the lockdown and yes it was a terms notice otherwise you would be liable for the following terms fees too.

We are moving house but very much fall into the camp of going state with supporting private tuition in the future. Our DS is looking very promising in maths and tbh a specialist tutor alongside state education will probably get him much further than what has been offered in private school.

I think it will come down to a demand situation rather than realising Independent schools offer amazing online support. Customer base will be severely depleted and for those still in the market there will be a lot more schools competing for their business.