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Original poster

Long term effect of coronavirus crisis on private school sector

258 replies

suk44 · 01/04/2020 22:32

I was reading an article in the Guardian today about the pressure some independent schools are under in the current situation, and how the ongoing uncertainty could hit the viability of some of them. Regardless of whether someone would be happy or unhappy with it, i''m thinking it is quite likely the sector is heading for a hugely difficult couple of years (like many other sectors of course) and especially since this isn't an issue that will be fully resolved anytime soon.

I understand some private schools were hanging on by their fingernails financially even before this crisis due to the huge increase in pension contributions, and now you have to add in the potential pressure from some parents for partially refunded fees for next term, international boarders having to fly home, and predictions of a deep recession (and therefore fewer that could afford to send their children to fee paying schools).

I'm wondering if we will end up seeing a greater number of such schools merging, closing or converting to state schools that we saw even after the 2008 recession, affecting even some big names?

OP posts:
2ndStar · 19/04/2020 13:26

I don’t think you can look at independents as a single group more as a collection of risk factors.
School roll percentage of international boarders - the higher the percentage the higher the risk.
Prep - might be more likely to lose prospective pupils than secondary. But GCSE year and sixth form might be different from lower years.
Current pupils - Fees how are they afforded by current parents, out of income or not and if out of income how affordable it is.

Cash flow - managing it within the school and how long they can weather a period of lower income. The school roll size comes in there too, it’s easier to trim costs or staff with a larger roll than a smaller one, also running costs are spread over a bigger number of fees. If it’s single form per year there isn’t much to trim despite reduced pupil numbers.

Impact on state schools from those no longer taking up an independent place or withdrawing from independents is going to happen. The scale of that depends on the local area percentage of kids not currently in state education, some areas will be hit harder than others.

Travelban · 17/04/2020 10:19

I think nobody knows what will happen as many parents will probably (if they can) wait until next year, as it is very difficult right now to look for another school etc

So I think roll numbers and it's true extent will be more apparent for 2021...

BubblesBuddy · 16/04/2020 19:16

Colston has reduced its PAN from 168 to 140 so 4 x 28.

I think parents will be concerned about fees if they are relying on income and have doubts about that for the future. The big well known schools will be fine but the little cosy ones might struggle with too many “scraping the fees together” parents.

BubblesBuddy · 16/04/2020 19:10

The size of classes might be limited by physical classroom sizes. How many DC can actually fit in? Some schools have small classrooms so they may not be able to take 30.

Milicentbystander72 · 15/04/2020 19:34

Suk44 I'm afraid I don't know the details that you're asking. Interesting questions to ask though. I have a friend with a dc at Bristol Cathedral Choir School but am unsure about the changes made in the school from Private to State. I think the capacity in the whole school is around 680 so class sizes must still be smaller than a typical state school.

If you're interested have a look at their website. They have a 'history of the school' section which is really interesting.

bccs.bristol.sch.uk/

I don't know much detail about Colston Girls either I'm afraid. I just know both schools are very high achieving and highly sought after. A good example of private turned state I think.

Original poster
suk44 · 15/04/2020 16:43

@Milicentbystander72 out of interest do you know to what extent class sizes there increased, or if there was any reduction in the previous provision of subjects offered or extracurricular provision? I understand spending per pupil is approx half in state funded schools (although obviously varies) so I'm just wondering where this reduction was 'seen' so to speak.

Incidentally I know someone who worked in a school which also converted into state, and at the time there was a considerable turnover in staff.

OP posts:
Milicentbystander72 · 15/04/2020 08:30

Given the possible numbers involved, some indies being allowed or even encouraged to convert to state schools may be the best (least worst?) solution, ignoring the political complexion of the person quoted in the TES article.

I'm not sure why I'm in this thread as I'm not a private school parent (but I am a state school Governor so generally very interested in all aspects of education)

I wanted to point out that around the last recession two former private schools in Bristol - Bristol Cathedral Choir School and Colston Girls school converted to State Schools. They have maintained their excellent results and even though they use an random allocated admissions procedure they probably still are the most sought after schools in the city. Just wanted to point out that it can be done very successfully.

Iwanttogoaway · 14/04/2020 13:27

growingboys. This is very interesting. We now are facing the same decision....

andantino · 14/04/2020 12:57

We had a similar decision last year, growingboys, and went for the private option. We're not regretting the decision so far (DS has had an amazing year, and the school has been fantastic in the current crisis). But our feelings could change depending on how long this situation continues, and whether we end up losing income. I really hope we don't end up regretting our choice. At the moment I'm just desperate for DS to get back to school (as soon as it's deemed safe enough) - he loves it so much, and I'm gutted he's missing part of his first year.

Growingboys · 14/04/2020 11:24

We were torn between (a top) private and (a top) state school - DS had offers for both, and are now thanking our lucky stars we went for state.

We could have afforded private (we have 3DC) but not comfortably. Now in this uncertain economic climate (we both have good jobs but have both had pay cuts thanks to corona) we are so relieved school fees are not something we had to worry about.

Most of my friends with children at private schools are really rich and even if they are affected, will still be able to manage the fees no problem (inherited wealth - trusts etc).

But I still know quite a few families like us who have pushed themselves to pay for private and think they will be affected by this. Feel very sorry for them - we just got lucky.

There's no doubt that private schools will be affected by an economic downturn like this.

Travelban · 13/04/2020 08:51

Sorry for typos, damn autocorrect!

Travelban · 13/04/2020 08:51

However I'd they cut facilities and increase class sizes, they will die anyway. Even though parents lights out up with it in the very short term, they will be making decisions longer term..

errorofjudgement · 11/04/2020 13:05

Offering a place at state school, and if necessary providing a travel pass to get there, would be massively cheaper than paying to take over failing independent schools.
I suspect a lot of parents wouldn’t take up the offered place, particularly as it’s unlikely to be a place at a successful and popular school.

Appuskidu · 11/04/2020 11:32

that would cost far far more

No, it really wouldn’t. Not long term.

Original poster
suk44 · 11/04/2020 11:31

And given the government were not willing to do this during the last recession, when a not insignificant number of schools that had to close, merge or convert - I'm not sure why it would now?

OP posts:
Original poster
suk44 · 11/04/2020 11:26

that would cost far far more

Yes in the short term, but if the government knows the state will have to educate most of them then they would've had to increase long term capacity in local schools anyway so the cost wouldn't be that different overall.

As I say it would be political suicide for the government to start paying fees for parents who can't afford it anymore or to private schools to stop them going bust - this would be the case even during normal times, never mind when the economy is going into freefall and unemployment significantly rising. They already will have a gigantic debt to pay back form all the schemes trying to keep people in their jobs.

Anyone who is pinning their hopes on this happening is going to end up very disappointed!

OP posts:
Whyisthisnoteasy · 11/04/2020 11:08

But what about for September surely this won't be sorted out by then?

Tonyaster · 11/04/2020 11:04

If worst came to worst then I think it's much more likely such schools would be converted into a free school that would cost far far more

Appuskidu · 11/04/2020 10:55

Or maybe if LEA cannot provide a school place could pay discounted fee to keep the child in the indie

I think the chances of that happening are at zero.

Original poster
suk44 · 11/04/2020 10:53

I think the likelihood of the government subsidising the fees for pupils at a private school that is at risk of going bust is zero. It would be political suicide, especially at a time when so many will be losing their jobs and after a long period of state schools being starved of cash.

If worst came to worst then I think it's much more likely such schools would be converted into a free school, and then would of course be open for all to apply for a place and wouldn't be depended on paying fees. Even then it would probably only get permission if it was an area with few spare places at existing state schools.

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NewModelArmyMayhem18 · 11/04/2020 09:50

Or maybe if LEA cannot provide a school place could pay discounted fee to keep the child in the indie, rather than having to find places suddenly for 800+ children all at once. It's a good idea but I'm pretty sure you'd then get some people with DC in state schools complaining that it's not fair!

Tonyaster · 11/04/2020 09:15

Or maybe if LEA cannot provide a school place could pay discounted fee to keep the child in the indie, rather than having to find places suddenly for 800+ children all at once

Not a bad idea.

rivierliedje · 11/04/2020 08:52

@Stellamboscha THat is how it works in Ireland for secondary schools. PRobably why the fees are so much lower here (here is a list www.irishtimes.com/news/education/the-rise-of-private-schools-there-s-a-lot-more-money-around-1.3338945)
I wonder if that will help these schools weather the storm more, as the expense is not so huge for parents.

Stellamboscha · 11/04/2020 07:48

Or LEA could pay the teachers salaries in the indie for a fixed period?

Stellamboscha · 11/04/2020 07:47

Or maybe if LEA cannot provide a school place could pay discounted fee to keep the child in the indie, rather than having to find places suddenly for 800+ children all at once.